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The political scientist called Erdogan's words about readiness for war with Israel a geopolitical maneuver.

Dibrov: direct conflict between Turkey and Israel is unlikely
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Photo: Global Look Press/Mustafa Kaya
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's statements about Israel's readiness to launch military actions to protect the Palestinians should be considered as an element of geopolitical pressure, rather than direct preparations for conflict. Political scientist and publicist Georgy Dibrov told Izvestia about this on April 15.

"Erdogan's statements are a geopolitical maneuver, an instrument of pressure on Israel and the United States to solve Turkey's European and own problems in the region. In the Middle East conflict, Ankara demonstrates not only domestic, but also European interest in the situation," the expert noted.

According to him, the tension between Turkey and Israel goes beyond the framework of bilateral relations and reflects the broader context of the struggle for influence in the Middle East. According to the analyst, Turkey is seeking to strengthen its position, including taking into account the interests of European countries that have limited resources to simultaneously participate in several conflicts.

Dibrov stressed that despite the harsh rhetoric, the likelihood of a direct military clash between Turkey and Israel remains low. Given the economic difficulties, Ankara is not interested in a protracted conflict, but may resort to limited actions if the "red lines" are crossed.

The expert noted that the current confrontation is mainly mediated and develops mainly in the information space. The parties demonstrate their willingness to defend their interests, but avoid steps that could lead to a full-scale clash.

According to him, complex international relations, including the position of the United States, Great Britain and EU countries, remain an additional deterrent. At the same time, there is no single line within the Western unions regarding a possible conflict, which also reduces the likelihood of its escalation.

"Israel, despite the support of the United States, is acting cautiously and avoiding involvement in conflicts with an uncertain outcome. At the same time, the parties continue to exchange harsh statements without going beyond the diplomatic confrontation," the political scientist said.

The expert concluded that at this stage, the conflict between Turkey and Israel remains limited and controlled, and its further development will depend on the balance of interests of key international players.

Erdogan said on April 13 that Turkey could take certain military actions against Israel in order to stop the possible forced resettlement of Palestinians. According to him, Tel Aviv, despite the cease-fire, forced 1.2 million Lebanese to leave their homes allegedly because of attacks on civilian settlements.

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Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»

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