Stock noise: every ninth signal of Telegram channels affects stock prices

Every ninth signal from Telegram channels moves the market - in 11% of cases, such recommendations affect stock prices, according to a study by Moscow State University experts, which was studied by Izvestia. The mechanics are simple: a popular channel writes "it's time to buy" — subscribers buy paper, and quotes grow. More than 60% of private investors rely on such advice, which is used by unscrupulous bloggers and authors: first they enter the asset themselves, then they disperse demand and sell it for more. In April, the FSB opened cases against the owners of such channels for systemic market manipulation. The Central Bank assured that this work will continue. How to recognize such schemes and what will change the strengthening of control — in the material of Izvestia.

How messengers affect the stock market

The FSB has detained three owners of investment Telegram channels, suspecting them of manipulating shares of Russian companies. According to the security forces, in 2023-2024, they used the Pump&Dump strategy — they artificially accelerated the price of securities, and then sold them at their peak. The transactions were accompanied by publications calling for the purchase or sale of assets, which significantly changed the quotes.

We are talking about the channels "Marketdengivlast|RDV", "Wolf from the Moscow Stock Exchange" and "Signals of the Russian Securities Exchange". According to the Investigative Committee, the defendants made more than 55,000 illegal transactions with shares and depositary receipts of 19 large companies on the Moscow Stock Exchange. The FSB added that they had received income "on a particularly large scale," but did not disclose the amount. According to the law, damage of 15 million rubles is considered such. Izvestia sent a request to the service.

The impact of such signals on the market is also confirmed by research. In 11% of cases, publications in Telegram could affect the profitability of shares, experts from the Moscow State University Faculty of Economics Fyodor Bobrovnik, Olga Vinogradova and Ashot Mirzoyan came to this conclusion. Their research is published in the Bulletin of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. We are talking about situations where there is no abnormal yield before publication, but it occurs immediately after the signal is released.

The analysis was carried out on shares of seven large companies, including Alrosa, Yandex, Aeroplane, Sberbank, Ozon, Lukoil and Rosneft (the editors requested comments from them). To do this, the authors studied the signals from five Telegram channels with an audience of 50-100 thousand people, in particular, "Analytics from Chekhov", ProfitGate and "Money Market | RDV", "Stockbroker | Stocks", "Evgeny Chernykh and 248".

Thus, in a number of cases, positive excess returns were recorded on shares of Aeroplane, Ozon and Lukoil after the purchase recommendations. At the same time, calls to sell to Alrosa, Yandex, Ozon and Lukoil were accompanied by a decline in quotations.

The authors of the study emphasize that in 2025, the share of private investors in the turnover of shares on the Moscow Stock Exchange reached 71%. Although individual players have small amounts of capital, their massive and coordinated actions can influence the market. This raises the question of the boundary between collective behavior and manipulation.

In early April, Kirill Pronin, director of the Financial Market Infrastructure Department at the Bank of Russia, said that the regulator was checking bloggers for such violations. He pointed to "egregious cases" when the channel's author first buys an asset, then publishes a forecast of its growth, after which he sells the paper against the background of an increase in price.

The Central Bank notes an increase in unscrupulous activity on the part of financial bloggers, the regulator's press service told Izvestia. False information and calls for securities transactions are increasingly spreading. Such authors can use the actions of subscribers for their own benefit, while their recommendations do not always correspond to reality, but they influence the behavior of investors, the Bank of Russia noted.

They stressed that the regulator constantly monitors stock trading and uses systems to identify suspicious transactions, including those related to Telegram channels. The Central Bank added: violators must understand the inevitability of punishment. The Bank of Russia will continue to identify cases of market manipulation, they assured.

Similar stories have been recorded before. In 2024, the Central Bank revealed a scheme of market manipulation organized by Boris Smirnov, the author of the Fibo Trade channel. According to the regulator, he artificially inflated the prices of low-liquid stocks and published misleading information about transactions. As a result, he was brought to administrative responsibility.

Even earlier, the Central Bank revealed manipulation of Saratovenergo shares via Telegram. In 2018-2021, instructions for investors were published in the PInvest Group chat — which securities to buy, when and at what price to sell. This actually coordinated their actions in the market, said Yulia Myagkova, Associate Professor of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

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Who trusts signals from bloggers

Most private investors in Russia are guided by signals from social networks. According to the Central Bank, with reference to the NAFI survey for 2025, 37% make decisions based on information from Telegram channels, and another 29% make decisions based on recommendations from bloggers from the same messenger, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

At the same time, less than a third rate their financial literacy as high, so such advice is more often trusted by unskilled investors, she noted. As a result, the result is weak for them: either losses or income are lower than the alternatives, for example, on deposits or dividend securities, the expert added.

Unscrupulous authors can manipulate the market: first buy up securities, then publish a positive signal and sell at the peak, said Yulia Myagkova from the Russian University of Economics. Massive signals can cause short-term price spikes, especially in less liquid stocks.

At the same time, Telegram's restrictions, which began in February 2026, may reduce the audience of such channels, as some users will lose access, Natalia Milchakova added. This will reduce the influence of unscrupulous bloggers, but at the same time it will hit honest authors. As a result, the audience and signals can switch to other messengers, but bloggers will have to rebuild their promotion.

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How to recognize manipulation in signals

The use of signals from Telegram channels has both advantages and risks, Yulia Myagkova noted. The advantages include quick access to investment ideas and time savings. Some authors accompany the recommendations with analytics, which helps newcomers to better understand the market. In addition, a community effect is formed: people discuss ideas and feel confident when they see others acting the same way.

However, there are more disadvantages, the expert continued. Among them are Pump&Dump schemes, false signals and recommendations without in—depth analysis of companies, their financial performance and market situation. According to Yulia Myagkova, behavioral factors increase risks: investors often follow the crowd, succumb to panic or fear of missing out, which leads to impulsive decisions.

A separate problem is illiquid stocks. They are the easiest to manipulate investors, as even small volumes can significantly shift the price, said Dmitry Lesnov, Deputy General Director for brokerage at Finam. If bloggers actively promote second-tier securities and promise high returns, such signals should be treated with extreme caution, he added.

There are no exact signs of artificial acceleration, but there are alarming signals. In particular, these are direct recommendations to buy shares of a particular issuer, especially with low liquidity, Dmitry Lesnov warned. It is important to keep in mind that only licensed investment consultants can give such advice.

Manipulative signals are often given in an emotional form, with promises of quick profits and without mentioning risks. They are often published synchronously in several channels and require immediate action, without time for analysis, Yulia Myagkova added. In contrast, professional analysts usually provide several scenarios for development — positive, basic and negative — and necessarily disclose the risks, said financial adviser Alexei Rodin.

Experts expect increased control over investment Telegram channels. This may lead to the blocking of unscrupulous resources and stricter disclosure requirements, Yulia Myagkova believes. At the same time, responsibility should extend not only to content authors, but also to companies that do not ensure data transparency, said Alexander Abramov, head of the Laboratory for the Analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Presidential Academy. According to him, increasing market openness is a key way to reduce the impact of poor—quality recommendations.