Both yours and ours: how Hungary will maneuver between Moscow and Brussels

Almost 16 years of Viktor Orban's rule have come to an end: the opposition Tisa party, led by Peter Magyar, won the parliamentary elections in Hungary. He has already promised to get billions of euros unfrozen from the European Union, but at the same time he is not going to abandon negotiations with the Russian Federation — and this may become a new problem for Brussels. What will be the new path of Budapest — in the material of Izvestia.

How were the elections

According to the results of processing 99% of ballots, the opposition Tisa party, led by Peter Magyar, wins the parliamentary elections in Hungary. She wins 53.07% of the vote and wins 138 seats in Parliament. The Fidesz–CDNP alliance secured the support of 38.43% of voters (55 seats). The turnout was a record 79.5%.

Viktor Orban has already admitted defeat, calling the election results "painful" for Fidesz and adding that he will continue to serve the country even while in opposition. For a politician, this is the end of almost 15 years in power: he first headed the government in 1998-2002, and then returned to power in 2010 and has remained Prime minister for four consecutive terms since then.

Peter Magyar, who won the election, is a lawyer by training and a former member of the Orban system. For many years, he was closely associated with Fidesz. In 2010, Magyar worked at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where he dealt with EU issues, and then held senior positions in state-owned companies and institutions. In particular, he headed the division of the Hungarian Development Bank, and in 2019-2022 he headed the state Center for Student Loans.

His position was largely explained by his personal connections. Magyar was married to Judith Varga, a former justice minister and close associate of Orban. They divorced in 2023, and the couple has three sons.

Moscow has already made it clear that they do not expect a sharp deterioration in relations with the new Hungarian leadership. Commenting on the election results, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow "respects the choice made by the Hungarians" and expects to maintain "pragmatic contacts" with the new government.

"We are interested in building good relations with Hungary, as well as with other European countries," he stressed.

In Brussels, on the contrary, Tisza's victory was greeted with enthusiasm. Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, was one of the first to congratulate Magyar: "Europe has always chosen Hungary. The country is returning to its European path. The union is getting stronger."

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also said that he had spoken with Magyar by phone and confirmed that the new Hungarian leader would make his first foreign visit to Warsaw. Magyar himself said that after his trip to Poland, he would go to Vienna, and then to Brussels, in order to "return home the EU funds to which the Hungarian people are entitled."

What will change

Peter Magyar based his campaign on a promise to return Hungary to the "European path." Under Orban, relations between Budapest and Brussels deteriorated markedly. Back in 2022, the EU froze more than €17 billion for Hungary due to claims about the independence of the courts, corruption and the distribution of European funds. Orban called Brussels' actions political blackmail.

In the following years, the conflict only intensified. Hungary has regularly blocked aid to Ukraine, sanctions against Russia, and negotiations on Kiev's accession to the EU. In February 2026, Budapest did not support the provision of an EU loan of €90 billion to Kiev. Orban also disagreed with the EU's plan to completely abandon Russian energy supplies by 2027.

In Brussels, they expect that with the arrival of the Magyar, Hungary will become more compliant. Moreover, according to Politico, they intend to arrange a kind of check for the new prime minister. In the near future, he will have to decide on the 20th package of sanctions against Russia, which has so far been blocked by Orban.

However, the leader of Tisa himself has already made it clear that a sharp reversal is not worth waiting for. He has repeatedly stated that he does not support Ukraine's accelerated accession to the EU. Moreover, he proposed putting the issue to a national referendum. Judging by the mood inside the country, the result of such a vote would be predictable: according to last year's polls, 67% of Hungarians oppose Ukraine's European integration.

Magyar speaks no less cautiously about Russia. He has repeatedly said that Budapest will maintain "pragmatic relations" with Moscow. According to him, the country should remain part of the EU and NATO, but not abandon cooperation with the Kremlin where it meets Hungarian interests. This position is understandable: Russia remains the main supplier of energy resources to Hungary, and in 2025, Russian gas supplies through the Turkish Stream reached a record 7.5 billion cubic meters.

"We will have to sit down at the negotiating table with the Russian president. The geographical location of neither Russia nor Hungary will change. Our energy dependence will also remain. ...We will negotiate," warned Peter Magyar.

In addition, Magyar did not rule out that all agreements related to the Paks-2 NPP project would be analyzed, and some of them could be terminated. He also added that he would like to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the price of the NPP project.

It is possible that it will be easier for Moscow to build relations with the new prime minister than with Orban. Over the years of constant conflicts with Brussels, his position was increasingly perceived as marginal. The Magyar is able to pursue much the same policy, but without constant quarrels with the EU, and therefore with much greater influence within the bloc.

Against this background, it is significant that the first thing the Magyar goes to is Poland. Until recently, Warsaw itself argued with the EU over judicial reform and lost more than 130 billion euros in European funds. After Donald Tusk came to power, relations with Brussels quickly improved, and money began to return. Moreover, the changes in the judicial system have not been implemented — promises to change course have been enough for Brussels.

What the experts say

Some Hungarians supported Tisa not so much out of sympathy for Brussels, but out of concern that Orban's further conflict with the EU would lead to the isolation of the country and the loss of European funds, said Natalia Eremina, professor at the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University.

— As we can see, the heavyweights from Brussels were clearly escalating the situation, and we know that they had already managed to challenge the election results, for example, in Romania. They have the resources to directly influence election campaigns," Eremina believes.

According to the expert, the fatigue of a part of society from the long-term stay of one politician in power also played against Orban. In addition, the real gap between the candidates turned out to be noticeably smaller than the polls showed.

— In general, the situation here was still not very clear from the beginning, and the gap was not catastrophic, as polls showed, — says Eremina.

First of all, the results of the vote are related to the crisis that the EU as a whole and Hungary itself are experiencing. This is indicated by Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Over the past few years, food and energy resources have become more expensive in the country, and many voters perceive this as a consequence of the government's policy.

— Even if Hungary becomes more convenient for Brussels, the Magyar will still have to reckon with the part of the population that supported the policies of his predecessor. On a number of issues, he will try to balance between the position of Brussels and the expectations of his voters," the expert emphasizes.

Moreover, Orban himself is not going to leave politics. As Kamran Hasanov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, points out, the prime minister still has enough political resources to return — as has already happened in neighboring Poland with Donald Tusk and Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

According to Izvestia's interlocutor, even under the Magyar, Hungary will not become a rigidly anti-Russian country. Moreover, if Brussels seeks to abandon Russian oil and gas, it will have to compensate Budapest for the associated losses.

— However, anti-Russian rhetoric was used more as populism and an election stunt. Having come to power, it is unlikely that the Magyar will become a radical. He will look for opportunities to continue to "pump" oil and gas. Maybe Ukraine will open the Druzhba oil pipeline in return for Budapest not blocking EU loans for it. But even if Hungary goes under the wing of Brussels, it will not become rigidly anti—Russian like Poland and the Baltic States," the expert concludes.