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- Artery and pressure: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz increases the risk of military escalation
Artery and pressure: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz increases the risk of military escalation
The likelihood of a direct military clash between the United States and Iran has increased dramatically after the failure of negotiations. On April 13, Washington began a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for ships of countries trading with Tehran, effectively putting the region on the brink of a major war. Iran responded by threatening to attack the US Navy and block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. For now, what is happening remains an element of a strategy of maximum pressure and a "managed crisis," in which the parties use military and economic tools as bargaining levers. At the same time, the parties are preparing for a new round of diplomatic contacts. According to media reports, representatives of Iran and the United States are planning to meet on April 16 in Islamabad. At the same time, Israel is preparing for direct contacts with Lebanon, seeking the disarmament of Hezbollah. And this only increases the overall tension in the region.
The United States allowed the continuation of negotiations with Iran
US President Donald Trump has announced the beginning of a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, stressing that the US Navy will intercept ships interacting with Iran. According to him, the measures are aimed against ships that pay Tehran for passage through a strategically important artery. This decision was made after the completion of negotiations in Islamabad, which did not lead to an agreement on key issues — the Iranian nuclear program and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, Trump separately noted that, despite the tension, shipping through the strait had resumed: according to him, 34 ships had passed through Hormuz in the last 24 hours alone, the highest figure since the beginning of, as he put it, "this ridiculous closure."
According to the US Central Command, the blockade, which came into force on April 13, applies to all ships heading to or leaving Iranian ports in the waters of the Persian and Oman Gulfs. At the same time, we are not talking about the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz: transit between ports of other countries in the region, including the Persian Gulf states, remains.
According to the Wall Street Journal, more than 15 US warships are involved in the operation. At the same time, the bulk of these forces are likely to operate outside the Strait of Hormuz itself in order to minimize the risks of a direct collision and avoid possible attacks from Iran.
At the same time, according to the publication, the US administration is considering a scenario for the resumption of limited military strikes on Iranian territory. According to sources, such measures can be used as a tool to force Tehran to make concessions in the negotiations.
At the same time, despite the harsh rhetoric, Washington does not rule out the continuation of the diplomatic process. In addition, the American leader said that Iran allegedly contacted Washington on its own.
"This morning we received a call from the right people (from Iran. — Ed.) — the right people, and they want to come to an agreement… They really want to make a deal, they just crave it," Trump said, speaking to reporters at the White House. At the same time, the US president outlined a strict condition for a possible agreement. According to him, a deal is impossible if Iran does not abandon its nuclear ambitions, which he called the key reason for the breakdown of negotiations in Islamabad.
Iran also claims to maintain the potential for a settlement. A participant in the negotiating group, the Ambassador of the Islamic Republic to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, described the meeting in Islamabad as a starting point for further dialogue. According to him, these negotiations laid the foundation for the diplomatic process. An additional confirmation of this is the plans for continued contacts. According to Atlantic journalist Arash Azizi, the second round of direct talks between representatives of Iran and the United States is scheduled for April 16 and will also be held in Islamabad.
— A hypothetical deal is possible only if Iran refuses to enrich uranium and transfers its accumulated reserves, but this issue is of fundamental symbolic importance for Tehran. For the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the nuclear program is connected not only with security, but also with the idea of strategic "immunity," Roman Yanushevsky, editor—in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, told Izvestia.
US Vice President Jay Dee Vance arrives for a meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif in Islamabad (Pakistan) for talks on Iran.
Against the background of the US actions, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said it intends to continue using the Strait of Hormuz and maintain the presence of its fleet, despite the American blockade.
Iran threatens to close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait
If necessary, the expert adds, the military phase can alternate with pauses that will allow Washington to restore resources, update the list of goals and reduce political risks.
At the same time, Tehran is demonstrating its readiness for a forceful response. The IRGC has already stated that it will consider the approach of American warships as a violation of the ceasefire and is ready to strike them "decisively and harshly."
Iranian representatives threatened to spread the conflict to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, another key global trade route connecting the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean.
Earlier, the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement (Houthis) told Izvestia that they admit the possibility of blocking the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait as a response to the "expansion of aggression" and the further involvement of regional states in the conflict.
If Iranian threats and attacks on US Navy ships are implemented, the conflict could rapidly escalate into a full-scale naval clash in one of the busiest shipping corridors in the world, Lebanese political analyst Ali Rizzk believes.
"Such a scenario would mean not only direct combat losses on both sides, but also immediate consequences for the global economy — a sharp rise in oil prices, disruptions in global energy supply chains, and the potential involvement of other states in the region in the crisis," the expert told Izvestia.
Rizzk stressed that the strengthening of the American naval group in the Persian Gulf in itself increases the risk of an incident in which a local provocation could trigger an uncontrolled escalation.
Such statements reinforce concerns about a possible energy shock. A significant part of the world's oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab el-Mandeb plays a critical role in logistics between Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal.
Iraqi analyst Safaa al-Assam believes that Donald Trump continues the policy of maximum pressure, but the implementation of the blockade is complicated by the presence of Iran's extensive "shadow fleet." According to him, the United States is likely to focus on vessel monitoring, avoiding an excessive presence in the Strait of Hormuz itself due to its vulnerability and narrow geography.
The mine threat remains a key problem: even with the start of US operations to clear the waters of the Persian Gulf, this factor can seriously hinder navigation, and a complete clearance of the strait can take a long time, the expert told Izvestia.
"The current dynamics indicate that the parties are moving towards a 'controlled escalation' in which pressure, threats and limited military action are used as a bargaining tool rather than as preparation for a full—scale war," al—Assam added.
Negotiations between Lebanon and Israel
The situation around Lebanon is also having a serious impact on the negotiation process. Iran links the dialogue with the United States with the cessation of Israeli military operations against Hezbollah. The IDF's strikes on Lebanon, according to Tehran, undermine confidence in diplomatic efforts and indicate Washington's support for Israeli aggression.
According to the IDF, the fighting in southern Lebanon is becoming more intense. The military announced the completion of the encirclement of the city of Bint Jbeil, one of the key strongholds of Hezbollah. Dozens of movement fighters were allegedly killed during the operation. Violent clashes are currently taking place in the area of the city, with the sides exchanging rocket attacks and small arms fire.
Under these conditions, Israel is preparing to hold direct talks with Lebanon on April 14. The agenda is as strict as possible: the disarmament of Hezbollah not only south of the Litani River, as stipulated in previous agreements, but also throughout the country. The parties will also discuss the possible normalization of relations between the two countries. Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem has already called on the Lebanese government to cancel the planned meeting.
At the same time, the Israeli leadership openly admits that the complete disarmament of Hezbollah in the short term is almost unrealistic. The main goal is to weaken the movement as much as possible so that the Lebanese state institutions can finally take control of the situation and prevent Lebanon from becoming a permanent springboard for groups linked to Iran.
— The Lebanese factor significantly complicates the already fragile process of truce negotiations in the region. As long as Tehran sees that its key ally continues to be destroyed, any US concessions look like political suicide for the Iranian leadership. Without visible progress on Lebanon, the chances of reaching even a temporary agreement between Washington and Tehran remain minimal," said political analyst Ali Rizzk.
Roman Yanushevsky is sure that the parties initially do not perceive the upcoming negotiations on Lebanon in Washington as a platform for breakthrough solutions. According to him, the participation of mid—level diplomats — the ambassadors of Israel and Lebanon to the United States, as well as the American ambassador in Beirut - indicates the limited nature of expectations.
The main player, Hezbollah, remains virtually outside the discussion, despite the fact that it determines the balance of power within Lebanon. According to Yanushevsky, the movement functions as a "state within a state", ignoring the decisions of the official Beirut, which makes any agreements without taking this factor into account unrealistic.
Since the escalation began in March, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, more than 1.8 thousand people have become victims of Israeli attacks. The Israeli side is also suffering losses: 12 IDF soldiers were killed due to renewed clashes with Hezbollah. Casualties are also recorded among the Israeli civilian population — two people were killed as a result of rocket attacks from Lebanon, and another civilian was the victim of a mistake by his own artillery in the north of the country.
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