Oil is not like that: the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will even affect China

The US-Iranian talks in Pakistan ended without an agreement, while the parties immediately entered a phase of sharp escalation. Washington announced the introduction of a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the interception of ships passing through the key global oil transportation artery. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that such steps are aimed not only at putting pressure on Tehran, but also potentially at limiting energy supplies to China, which remains the largest recipient of raw materials passing through Hormuz. An additional factor of tension remains the situation around the Shiite Hezbollah movement, whose disarmament will be the main topic of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel on April 14.

Trump threatens to blockade the Strait of Hormuz

The failure in the dialogue between the United States and Iran is accompanied by a sharp escalation of rhetoric from Washington. U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance, who led the delegation at the Islamabad talks, said the United States had submitted a "final and best proposal," but Iran had not accepted it. The Americans left Pakistan without an agreement.

As a result, President Donald Trump announced the beginning of a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, saying that the US Navy would intercept all ships entering and exiting the waters. According to him, such measures are directed against ships that pay Iran for passage, and he accused Tehran of not fulfilling its promise to open the strait to international shipping.

"We're just pulling up the ships. We have a lot of ships, so we're pulling them up. We think that many countries will also help us in this, and we are introducing a complete blockade. We will not allow Iran to make money by selling oil to those who like it, and not to those who do not like it," the American leader said in an interview with Fox News.

It is worth noting that according to Sky News, the UK will not participate in the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

An additional signal of the tightening of the position was Trump's statement that Tehran is not ready to abandon its nuclear ambitions. In fact, Washington has once again identified the main barrier to compromise — the requirement for long-term guarantees that Iran does not have nuclear weapons.

The negotiation process, which was initially seen as a chance to consolidate the previously announced two-week ceasefire, ended in vain and entered a phase of increasing pressure.

Egyptian international relations specialist Tarek al-Bardisi told Izvestia that Donald Trump's statements about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could mean not only increased pressure on Iran, but also the actual involvement of new players in the crisis, primarily China.

The expert draws attention to energy interdependence: a significant part of Iranian oil is sent to China, covering a significant proportion of its needs. At a time when alternative supply routes, including the Venezuelan route, are facing restrictions, any attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz directly affect Beijing's interests.

In this context, al-Bardisi does not rule out that the tightening of the American line may be perceived as an indirect challenge to China and a signal of readiness to expand the geography of the confrontation. He cites reports of possible support for Iran from Beijing as an additional factor, including the development of air defense systems, which increases the risk of internationalization of the conflict. Although Beijing has not officially confirmed the fact of supplying weapons to Tehran after the outbreak of the war.

As Vladimir Dzhabarov, First Deputy chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, told Izvestia earlier, the problem with Hormuz does not affect Russia.

— We have almost no ships there. I don't remember that we exported anything through the Strait of Hormuz. We don't take oil from there. Especially gas," the senator added. — We have our own sales channels, our own routes.

In the absence of progress, diplomatic efforts by other countries are intensifying. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian. During the conversation, the progress of negotiations with the United States, as well as the situation in the region, were discussed.

The Iranian side expressed gratitude to Moscow for its principled position and the humanitarian assistance provided. Peseshkian told Putin that Tehran is ready to conclude a fair agreement with the United States, but stressed that Iran's national interests remain its key "red line." In turn, the Russian leader confirmed his readiness to contribute to the political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict over Iran.

Washington has begun to mine the strait

According to the Central Command of the US Armed Forces (CENTCOM), the US Navy has already begun mine clearance operations in the waters of the Persian Gulf. The statement emphasizes that the destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy have passed through Hormuz and are involved in a mission related to "clearing the strait of mines."

At the same time, Washington claims that allies are joining the process: Britain and a number of other countries are sending minesweepers, and France does not exclude participation in the operation, although it has not yet made an official decision on the deployment of forces.

Iraqi military analyst Safaa al-Assam believes that the situation around the Strait of Hormuz has entered a new phase of escalation. According to him, recent US actions, including the activation of naval forces and possible mine clearance operations, indicate an attempt to deprive Iran of one of the key levers of pressure — control over the strait.

"Donald Trump's statements about neutralizing Iranian mine threats may be true, especially if Washington acted with the support of its allies, using specialized forces to ensure the passage of ships," the expert shared with Izvestia.

At the same time, al-Assam warns of a sharp increase in the risks of a direct clash between American and Iranian forces, which could lead to a new escalation. He emphasizes that the current crisis goes beyond the bilateral confrontation and acquires a global dimension, affecting China's interests as well.

Iran's nuclear program

The American side makes it clear that it leaves room for maneuver and is ready for dialogue. But the further development of the situation, according to Washington's plan, will depend on Tehran's willingness to make fundamental concessions.

According to Tarek al-Bardisi, the rhetoric of the American side following the talks indicates an attempt to preserve space for diplomacy, despite the lack of a concrete result.

He draws attention to the fact that the US representatives avoided using the phrase "failure" directly, limiting themselves to milder assessments. This, in his opinion, indicates Washington's desire to leave an opportunity for continuing dialogue and finding a political solution without returning to a military scenario.

The key stumbling block, in addition to the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, remains the Iranian nuclear program. The United States insists on the republic's abandonment of uranium enrichment capabilities, considering this as the only guarantee that it will not create nuclear weapons in the long term.

Iran, in turn, categorically rejects such demands. Tehran stresses that it does not seek to create nuclear weapons and considers the US demands to be a violation of its sovereign right to develop a peaceful nuclear program.

The regional situation also has a serious impact on the negotiation process. Iran has directly linked the dialogue with the United States to the need to stop Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Tehran says that the ongoing military activity of the IDF makes negotiations meaningless and undermines the very possibility of a diplomatic settlement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the launch of a negotiation process that will focus on the disarmament of the Shiite Hezbollah movement and the possible normalization of relations between the two countries. According to preliminary data, the first meeting may take place in Washington as early as April 14.

According to Western media reports, the United States tried to convince Israel to reduce the intensity of the strikes in order not to disrupt the negotiation process. However, these efforts did not lead to a noticeable change in the situation, which only increased the skepticism of the Iranian side. Meanwhile, Netanyahu, as well as Defense Minister Yisrael Katz and Chief of the General Staff Eyal Zamir visited IDF positions in Lebanon. During the visit, the Israeli Prime Minister stated that his country was continuing its security operation on the northern border and had not yet achieved its goals. "There is still a lot to be done, and we are doing it," he said.

In this situation, Hezbollah is taking a hard line, accusing the Lebanese authorities of making excessive concessions to Israel. The movement insists that Lebanon should be included in the truce between Washington and Tehran, and opposes any attempts to conduct separate negotiations without taking this link into account.