Steps to the meeting: Russia expects progress in U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad
The whole world is waiting for the meeting of representatives of Iran and the United States in Islamabad on April 11. In particular, Russia is counting on progress in the upcoming negotiations, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. However, experts believe that too much should not be expected from the results of this meeting. The truce is constantly being violated, and Israeli strikes on Lebanon may completely disrupt the negotiations. The situation around Hormuz is also unstable: Tehran, in fact, continues to control navigation on its own terms. According to Alimov, the UN Security Council is currently considering a joint resolution between Russia and China, including on the settlement of the situation in the strait.
Prospects for negotiations between Iran and the United States
After almost a month and a half of chaos in the Middle East, the United States and Iran finally agreed to at least try to make peace. The first round of negotiations is scheduled for April 11 in Islamabad. Tehran, according to preliminary data, will be represented by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The American delegation will include "traditional" negotiators: Trump's special envoy Steven Witkoff and the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner, as well as Vice President Jay Dee Vance. This is especially interesting, given that, according to the American media, he is one of the main opponents of the operation in Iran.
U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance boards Air Force Two for an expected flight to Pakistan for talks on Iran.
It is expected that the delegations will sit in separate rooms during the negotiations, and Pakistani officials will convey proposals to the parties, just as it was at previous rounds mediated by Oman, the Pakistani edition of Geo News writes.
Obviously, there will be no easy dialogue. The day before, Vance noted that the US negotiating team was "not very susceptible" to manipulation. Nevertheless, this is the first real chance to cool down the large-scale conflict in the Middle East.
— Now everyone is hoping for ongoing negotiations with the mediation of Pakistan. We hope that they will be effective," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. — Our further steps in the Security Council will depend on the development of the situation and possible agreements.
However, the negotiations have been on the verge of collapse since the very beginning of their announcement. A shaky two-week truce between the United States and Iran is currently in effect, which Washington has already violated on three key points, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said. We are talking about the invasion of an Israeli drone into Iran's airspace, the denial of Tehran's right to enrich uranium, as well as Israeli attacks on Lebanon. The latter may completely disrupt the upcoming negotiations. Iranian officials have stressed that a cease-fire or negotiations are impractical in such circumstances.
Israeli forces launched the largest attack on Lebanon in the entire war, a few hours after the truce was announced. More than 250 people were killed as a result of the sudden strikes in densely populated areas.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in unison with Jay D. Vance, said that Lebanon was not included in the truce agreement. According to the US vice president, Washington's position was that the ceasefire would focus on Iran and American allies, including Israel and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
In addition, there is another line of negotiations connected with Lebanon. Earlier, Netanyahu announced the beginning of a dialogue with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. Beirut, in turn, is seeking a cease-fire first, and then negotiations. The pro-Iranian movement refuses to engage in direct dialogue with Israel. They noted that priority should be given to the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanese territory and the return of prisoners.
"The attacks on Lebanon and the escalation around Hezbollah, which Iran considers as a strategic asset of its regional policy, create an atmosphere of deep distrust," said Nadezhda Kapustina, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. — Any statement by the Iranian side about the violation of the truce becomes not just a diplomatic note, but a potential reason for the suspension or complete disruption of negotiations.
According to orientalist Leonid Tsukanov, there is a possibility of canceling the meeting, but the parties will still meet in Islamabad to demonstrate the seriousness of their intentions to end the conflict. The ongoing attacks on Lebanon will not cancel the negotiating track, Ilya Margolin, a consultant on public administration and international policy, is confident. In such processes, public rigidity usually accompanies a closed revision of mutual conditions, guarantees and acceptable frameworks for future agreements, the expert concluded.
Settlement of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz
In addition to the constant violation of the truce, the positions of the parties vary as much as possible. Iran wants an end to the strikes, guarantees of non-aggression, compensation for damage, lifting of sanctions, the right to enrich uranium and maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz. The United States, on the contrary, demands the cessation of the nuclear program and free passage through the strait, as well as the withdrawal or limitation of regional forces and the cessation of funding for Iran's allies.
Given the intransigence of the parties, at this stage it will be more about an attempt to localize the escalation and prevent the conflict from expanding, says Margolin. The prospect of a quick end to the conflict is really doubtful, Tsukanov believes.
— First of all, because Tehran and Washington still have sharp differences over Lebanon. Despite the formal truce, the parties dispute almost every point of the future peace deal," he said.
One of the key points remains the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. The risks to the economy are still very serious, despite its discovery by Iran. The media reported that Iran will allow no more than 15 ships per day through the Strait of Hormuz. Later it was reported that only four commercial cargo ships and two tankers had passed through on April 9.
They make rather vague statements in Tehran. Deputy Foreign Minister Said Khatibzade explained that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels that have received permission to use it and are in contact with the Iranian authorities. The Iranian media, citing the IRGC, write that alternative shipping routes have been introduced, bypassing the naval mines placed by Iran.
Before the talks, Donald Trump said that Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz were contrary to the ceasefire agreements. The US president also demanded that Tehran abandon the idea of collecting fees for the passage of ships.
The issue of the Strait of Hormuz remains in limbo, Tsukanov stressed. The United States has not yet been able to resolve the issue by force and will seek to include its NATO allies in unblocking the strait, the expert believes.
The problem with the Strait of Hormuz was also discussed in the UN Security Council. With the support of the Gulf states, Bahrain introduced a resolution, the first version of which allowed countries to use "all necessary means," including military ones, to ensure transit and prevent attempts to block it. Then Bahrain made changes, eliminating the point about the possible use of force. The document recommended that countries coordinate "proportionate actions" to ensure safe transit through the strait.
The initiative was rejected — Russia and China vetoed it. Russian Permanent Representative Vasily Nebenzia said that Bahrain and like-minded countries presented "a fundamentally wrong and dangerous approach to the situation in the region." In the text of the document, Iran's actions were presented as the only destabilizing source. Therefore, Moscow and Beijing have presented an alternative.
"In our speech, Permanent Representative Vasily Nebenzia announced a draft resolution of the Russian Federation, which was put forward jointly with the People's Republic of China,— Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. — He is currently on the negotiating table at the UN Security Council. So far, that's all we've put forward. We will look at what the next steps will be, depending on the development of the situation.
The details of the resolution have not yet been disclosed, but according to media reports, the Russian Federation and China are calling for de-escalation, diplomacy and an end to military activity and attacks on civilians and infrastructure.
However, even with the continuation of negotiations, a full-fledged restoration of logistics in the Strait of Hormuz should not be expected in the near future, Margolin noted. He warned of continued risks to supplies, insurance, and prices. Any destabilization of shipping can raise them. As a result, there will be additional pressure on the already fragile global supply chains, which gives the negotiations a dimension far beyond the nuclear dossier itself, concluded Kapustina.
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