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- Extraordinary defeat: the military operation in Ecuador has not reduced the level of banditry
Extraordinary defeat: the military operation in Ecuador has not reduced the level of banditry
Drug cartels are spreading across Latin America due to the US operation in Ecuador, which is in its second month. The Peruvian authorities have increased border patrols to prevent the flow of bandits, the Russian Embassy in the republic told Izvestia. In Chile, ditches are being preemptively built on the border. Colombia blames its neighbor for the bombings on its territory, and relations between the parties are bursting at the seams. Ecuador's president has said that 90% of gang leaders have been arrested, but locals are still suffering from attacks and robberies.
The course of the military operation in Ecuador
The joint military operation between the United States and Ecuador has been going on for more than a month. The goal is to fight against drug cartels and organizations recognized as terrorist. The US Southern Command and the Ministry of Defense of Ecuador keep the tactical details and the number of casualties secret. The Pentagon has not disclosed the location, scale of the operations, or the role of the US military in them.
On March 30, Ecuador lifted a curfew in four provinces. There were victorious statements, words about more than 1,000 detained bandits, and promises that the measure would not be extended. And on April 3, a state of emergency was imposed for two months in nine provinces. The measure affected the capital of Quito and Guayaquil, the two most densely populated cities. During a state of emergency, the military can enter homes without a court order and listen to calls. The measure affects about 7 million people out of a population of 18 million. In 2025, about 2.5 thousand murders occurred in Guayaquil, an anti—record in the country's history.
On April 8, the American nuclear aircraft carrier USS Nimitz arrived off the coast of Ecuador. It is capable of transporting more than 65 pieces of aircraft, including fighter jets and helicopters, as well as about 5,000 soldiers. This is a full-fledged mobile base designed for long-term operations away from the coast. The aircraft carrier participated in numerous operations in the Middle East in the 1990s and 2000s, and also played an important role during the Iraq War.
The real reason for the ship's presence in Ecuador may be a plan to attack Cuba in the future, Dmitry Drobnitsky, an American political scientist, told Izvestia. According to him, Donald Trump has lost the war with Iran, at least its first stage. The American elite is already thinking about how to dismiss the president. He is trying to raise his image in a hurry, and his actions are still chaotic, Drobnitsky concluded.
However, Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the United States will not invade Cuba soon. The aircraft carrier is rather a way to put pressure on the whole of Latin America — to show "who is the boss in the house," he is sure.
Escape of bandits from Ecuador to other countries
Ecuador claims to be the main U.S. ally in the region. President Daniel Noboa is one of Washington's most consistent supporters.
"Cooperation with Donald Trump is an attempt to maintain independence and create the illusion of control over the situation," said Anastasia Gavrilova, an international relations specialist at the Higher School of Economics. — For President Daniel Noboa, this is an opportunity to retain power and not repeat the fate of Nicolas Maduro.
At the same time, the operation creates difficulties in Ecuador's relations with neighboring countries.
"In the context of the acute problem of drug production here, the Peruvian authorities have previously increased border patrols, especially in the north of the country," the Russian Embassy in the republic told Izvestia.
Ecuador is located in the north of Peru, from where bandits can escape from a military operation.
"As for the transfer of bandit and drug cartel elements from Ecuador to Peru as a result of the aforementioned American—Ecuadorian actions, such a development is theoretically possible," the diplomats noted.
Despite the fact that Chile does not share a common border with Ecuador, the military operation indirectly affected it. President Jose Antonio Cast officially announced the construction of protective ditches and increased control on the border with Peru. The contingent will be doubled at key checkpoints.
In addition, Ecuador has strained relations with Colombia. The situation has reached the recall of the ambassador. And it was the military operation that played a significant role in the deterioration of the dialogue. Back in mid-March, Colombian President Gustavo Petro accused Quito of attacks on the territory of the republic, which killed 27 people. In response, the Ministry of Defense of Ecuador stated that they had beaten drug laboratories on their territory. Previously, according to the investigation, the republic was indeed hitting its territory, but one of the bombs nevertheless crossed the border. The investigation and the political dispute have not yet been closed.
— Ecuador has a 600 km border with Colombia running through the jungle, an area that is almost impossible to fully control. Weapons, militants and drugs are freely moving there, and the internal armed forces are not able to completely stop these processes," Evgeny Sumarokov, associate professor at the Department of International Business at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
According to him, the war is spreading across borders, creating a potential flashpoint for tension throughout the region. Ecuador has become a key transit hub for cocaine shipments from neighboring Colombia to the U.S. and European markets. The increase in smuggling has led to an escalation of violence, as local gangs linked to Mexican cartels and international criminal gangs are fighting for control of drug trafficking routes, Sumarokov stressed.
A striking example of how bandits escape to other countries was the arrest of one of the leaders of the Ecuadorian drug cartel Los Lobos. Esteban Aguilar was detained in Mexico. There he tried to escape with a fake Colombian passport.
The military operation did not reduce the crime rate
At the end of March, Daniel Noboa stated that almost 90% of the group's leaders had been arrested. It is logical to assume that the military operation is coming to an end. But that doesn't make it any easier for the locals. Bandits continue to commit atrocities, and not only in Ecuador.
The Internet is littered with people's stories about the ferocity of the gangs in the region, particularly in Ecuador. One user wrote that murders on the streets are a common sight. And if a person was robbed and then released, it was most likely the police, who are in cahoots with the bandits. In Ecuador, even children are allegedly robbing people.
The crime situation in Peru is also difficult. They write on the Internet that business is being actively blackmailed in the country. Bandits are forced to pay money under threat of reprisals. If they refuse to pay, the militants can fire on or even blow up the house. Users note that if a person has a business, he falls under mafia pressure.
The Telegram chat of Russian-speaking residents of Colombia reports that the country has a very high percentage of possession of unregistered weapons. On the forums, you can find ads in the style of "I'm exchanging a sawn-off shotgun and a revolver for a motorcycle without documents." The most criminal regions, according to locals, are located on the coast, where people are robbed right on the highways, which often ends in death.
The high crime rate is the result of a complex of causes: poverty, corruption, lack of economic opportunities, weak law enforcement, and demand for drugs, Sergei Tolkachev, a visiting professor at the Belarusian State University of Economics, explained to Izvestia.
According to him, eliminating only one component, in this case, the leaders, does not solve the problem. Arrests will temporarily disrupt drug supply chains, but the networks and economic motivation remain. In addition, the elimination or weakening of one group may lead to the fact that others will begin to occupy the vacant place or expand their influence, the academician emphasized.
Despite the military operation, the crime rate in the region remains at the same level, Gavrilova added. The only winner is Donald Trump: Ecuador has confirmed its loyalty, the American military presence has been legitimized, and President Noboa is now completely dependent on US support, the political scientist concluded.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
