On the verge of collapse: Lebanon has become a weak link in the US-Iran deal
The two-week truce announced by the United States and Iran was in danger of collapse on the very first day. Lebanon, which, according to Tehran and the mediators, was supposed to be part of the agreement, actually found itself outside its framework and became the epicenter of a new escalation. The large-scale Israeli strikes on Beirut and the south of the country, dubbed "bloody Wednesday" in the Arab media, have intensified disagreements between the parties and called into question the prospects for negotiations in Islamabad. The Lebanese Ministry of Health told Izvestia that the health care system is working at the limit of its capabilities, and the death toll of doctors has reached 12. There are growing fears that the diplomatic pause is only covering up preparations for a new round of conflict.
Strikes on Lebanon undermine truce in the region
The situation in Lebanon is rapidly deteriorating due to the ongoing Israeli strikes affecting not only residential areas, but also medical infrastructure.
— As you understand, due to repeated attacks and ongoing aggression, the needs are only growing. Nevertheless, the Lebanese healthcare system continues to operate and fulfill its responsibilities. The medical sector was also affected: hospitals, including in the Shooting Range, medical centers and ambulances were attacked. There are casualties among the doctors — 12 dead rescuers," the country's Ministry of Health told Izvestia.
The escalation comes after a two-week truce announced by the United States and Iran, which was already under threat on the first day. After reports of an agreement, the Shiite Hezbollah movement temporarily suspended operations against Israel. However, one of the largest strikes on Lebanon since the beginning of the conflict soon followed. The Israeli army attacked the southern regions of the country, as well as Beirut, including densely populated neighborhoods. According to the Lebanese Civil Defense Service, 254 people were killed in the attacks, and more than 1.1 thousand were injured.
Despite Washington's statements about the agreements reached, there has been no real reduction in tension in the region. In the Arab media and political circles, the incident has already been dubbed "bloody Wednesday," which highlights the scale of the strikes and the number of civilian casualties. According to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, Israel carried out the most powerful attack on Beirut since the 1982 invasion. In total, about 100 strikes were recorded.
Moreover, the parties have different interpretations of whether the ceasefire applies to the territory of Lebanon. The American side claims that there was a misunderstanding between the negotiating groups of the United States and Iran about the inclusion of this country in the perimeter of the truce. The states did not agree to this, said Vice President J. D. Vance. Tehran believes that the attacks on Lebanon are a direct violation of the agreements reached.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, who acted as one of the key mediators, earlier announced the comprehensive nature of the truce. According to him, the ceasefire regime should have extended to the entire region, including Lebanon. Thus, already at the stage of the implementation of the first agreements, fundamental differences arose in their interpretation, which called into question the very basis of the agreement.
Hadi Issa Daloul, an expert on international relations, believes that the ongoing attacks on Lebanon can be considered as an element of a political maneuver by the United States in the context of the negotiation process. In his opinion, the escalation in the Lebanese direction allows Washington to indirectly level the pressure on the disputed points of negotiations with Iran and avoid their direct discussion. At the same time, he does not rule out that Israel's actions may be independent, reflecting disagreement with the parameters of the deal under discussion. Earlier, CNN, citing a source, reported that the Jewish state remained dissatisfied with the armistice agreement between Iran and the United States.
The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to retaliate if Israeli attacks on Lebanon continue. In addition, information appeared in the Iranian media about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for most ships. We are talking about a key transport artery through which a significant share of the world's oil and gas supplies pass.
Negotiations in Pakistan are in doubt
Additional tension is caused by the upcoming negotiations between the United States and Iran, which are scheduled to take place in Islamabad. The meeting may take place as early as April 11, but its parameters remain uncertain. The American delegation is expected to be represented by J. D. Vance, Special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The final decision on the composition of the participants has not yet been made on the Iranian side, although earlier it was reported about the possible involvement of Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
US Vice President Jay Dee Vance, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and US Administration Spokesman Jared Kushner
Nevertheless, the Islamabad authorities are preparing for possible negotiations — April 9 and 10 were even declared days off in the capital. This was reported by The Express Tribune newspaper with reference to the metropolitan district administration. This is a common practice in the country on the eve of important events. The main goal of the local authorities: ensure uninterrupted logistics and security. According to media reports, the police have restricted entry to the so-called red zone, where the complex of government buildings is located.
However, the lack of clarity on the composition of the delegations and the format of the negotiations only highlights the fragility of the process. Moreover, Ghalibaf has already stated that three of the ten key terms of the potential agreement were violated even before the actual start of negotiations. According to the Iranian side, in addition to strikes on Lebanon, we are talking about actions in Iran's airspace and the refusal of the United States to recognize the country's right to enrich uranium. In such circumstances, as it is emphasized, the continuation of negotiations loses its practical meaning.
Hadi Issa Dalul believes that it is premature to talk about a full-fledged agreement between the United States and Iran at the current stage. According to him, Washington did not agree to the conditions proposed by Tehran, limiting itself only to declaring a temporary pause in hostilities for a period of two weeks. The expert emphasized in an interview with Izvestia that this is not about accepting agreements, but about trying to gain time without fixing obligations.
Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, believes that Iran is actually behaving like the winning side, insisting on conditions that include lifting sanctions, possible compensation from the United States, expanding control over the Strait of Hormuz and retaining the right to enrich uranium.
"None of these points can be accepted by Washington and its allies, which makes the agreement inherently unstable," the expert emphasizes in an interview with Izvestia.
According to Yanushevsky, the probability that the White House will agree to such conditions is extremely low, since this would mean leveling the achieved military results and actually encouraging Iran. In these circumstances, according to the expert, the positions of law enforcement agencies within the Iranian system are strengthening, primarily the IRGC, which leads to a tightening of Tehran's negotiating position and the imposition of even tougher demands, complicating the prospects for a diplomatic settlement.
The domestic political reaction in Iran also remains ambiguous. According to the Amwaj portal, some experts close to government circles express doubts about the feasibility of a truce. The main argument is distrust of the United States as a negotiating partner. It is indicated that Washington has repeatedly taken forceful actions during the negotiation process. If the attacks on Lebanon are not stopped, this could lead to the final breakdown of diplomatic efforts and a new round of confrontation in the Middle East.
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