Countdown barrel: after the truce in Iran, oil may remain at $100

The average price of Urals oil can drop to $65 per barrel, and even in this case, the Russian budget will receive an additional 1 trillion rubles. This is a scenario in which the truce in the Middle East will be lasting and an agreement will be signed between the parties. However, there is still little positive news: according to Iran, Israel violated the ceasefire on April 8. If a serious escalation occurs, the quotes of the Russian brand will fly for $100, and most analysts interviewed by Izvestia consider this option to be the most likely. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still not open. Even if the artery is unblocked as quickly as possible, oil prices will not return to January levels at least until the end of the year — the situation in the fuel market will remain difficult due to the infrastructure destroyed by the strikes.

Why won't a truce bring back oil prices

Despite the news about the truce reached between the United States and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other, industry experts are in no hurry to put an end to the Middle East conflict.

Firstly, on April 8, as reported by the Press TV channel, Israel attacked a refinery in southern Iran. There were also reports of IDF strikes in Lebanon. And if the Jewish state continues to violate the ceasefire, Tehran will withdraw from the truce, Tasnim news agency reported. Secondly, oil prices in the coming months are unlikely to return to the levels of January 2026, when it was trading at an average of $65 per barrel of Brent and $58-59 per Urals, analysts say.

According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, it should be borne in mind that since the beginning of March, the oil and gas infrastructure has been subjected to the most serious attacks. According to the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, about 40 key energy assets in the Middle East were damaged as a result of the Gulf war: "Some of them are slightly damaged, but some are seriously or even very seriously damaged."

Due to the agreements reached on a two-week truce between Iran and the United States on April 8, the price of Brent crude oil dropped by 16% to below $93 per barrel. The day before, June futures were trading at $115 per barrel. The Russian Urals brand dropped by 14% to $90 per barrel. But by 17:30, the price of Brent rose to $95, and the price of Russian crude oil rose to $92.5 per barrel. This happened just against the background of statements about the violation of the truce by Israel. Oil reacts quickly to news about the movement of the conflict, there is no steady decline yet. By 23:00, Brent had grown even more — to $96.2, and Urals — to $94.

How much money will come to the treasury from oil

So far, there are three possible scenarios for the development of events. If the parties reach a compromise and sign a peace agreement, Brent will drop to $80 per barrel, and the Urals price will be fixed above $60, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe.

In addition, there is a possibility that the United States and Iran have taken only a temporary respite and the military conflict will continue with renewed vigor in two weeks. In this case, Brent oil will jump above $110 per barrel again, and Urals oil will rise above $90, experts believe.

At the same time, it is possible that during these two weeks there will be a serious violation of the truce. In this case, Brent may fly above $120 per barrel in one trading session, says Olga Gogaladze, an economist and expert on financial markets. Urals in this case will be above $100. The third scenario is the most likely, according to the majority of experts interviewed by Izvestia.

The federal budget for this year was calculated based on the price of raw materials at $59. Based on this indicator, the planned volume of oil and gas revenues is 8.9 trillion rubles. Each additional $1 per barrel will bring Russia about 180 billion rubles a year, says Olga Gogaladze. The average annual oil price with an imminent truce may reach about $ 64-65 per barrel in a year, said financial adviser and founder of Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. In this case, you can get an additional 1 trillion rubles.

However, the treasury may receive more if the conflict drags on. In the most likely scenario, the Russian budget will receive up to 2 trillion additional revenues, Natalia Milchakova, analyst at Freedom Finance Global, believes. As Izvestia wrote earlier, the amount could reach 3.5 trillion rubles if the average quotes of Russian oil for the year are in the range of $90-100 per barrel.

What will happen to other assets due to the conflict over Iran

Shares of oil companies have already reacted to statements about a two-week truce between the United States and Iran. In particular, Rosneft's securities lost almost 5% (to 457 rubles), Tatneft — 4.6% (to 627 rubles), Bashneft — 3.4% (to 1,512 rubles), Novatek — 3.2% (to 1,251 rubles), Lukoil - 2.3% (up to 5,464 rubles), Surgutneftegaz - 1.7% (up to 20.86 rubles), Gazprom Neft — 1.6% (up to 530 rubles).

Gold added 1.9% (to $4,795 per ounce), and bitcoin — almost 3.5% (to $71.7 thousand). The ruble weakened by 0.11% (to 78.16 rubles per dollar). At the same time, the increase in the cost of precious metals is more likely due not to the course of the conflict, but to expectations of an early rate cut, said Alexander Abramov, head of the Laboratory for the analysis of institutions and financial markets at the Presidential Academy.

A decrease in the price of oil to $60 per barrel of Urals will pull down the Moscow Exchange index through shares of oil companies. It is likely to fluctuate at the level of 2700-2800 points, Natalia Milchakova predicts. At the same time, gold may rise above $5,000 per ounce and even update the historical maximum.

At a price of $90, the securities of commodity companies will go up again, but one should not expect a rapid growth of the Russian stock market, because due to excessively expensive oil, a global economic crisis may begin, Natalia Milchakova believes. And $120 per Brent will make gold fluctuate at levels of $4000-4800 per ounce.

How soon will it be possible to restart trading

According to the IEA, since the beginning of March, global oil supply has already decreased by 12 million barrels per day (with daily consumption of 104.6 million barrels) due to the conflict. By the end of April, the losses could be twice as high, Fatih Birol believes.

According to the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA), in March 2026, average daily oil production in the Middle East decreased by 7.5 million barrels. A gradual return to pre-crisis levels in the region will occur towards the end of this year, the EIA believes. The ministry assumes that the war in the Middle East will end before the end of April. From this time, the restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is still blocked by Iran, can begin.

Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that it will take from one and a half to four months to restart the deposits that were stopped as a result of the attacks. However, in his opinion, given the availability of significant reserve production capacities and the raw materials accumulated in the reservoirs, the recovery of crude oil exports will not take much time — within a couple of weeks. In addition, there are about 200 tankers already loaded in the Persian Gulf, waiting only for the go-ahead to pass through the strait. This means that the effect of lifting restrictions will be even faster.

At the same time, he believes that prices will not return to January levels at least until the end of the year, even if the two-week truce ends with the conclusion of an agreement. This is due to the fact that recent events have brought back a significant "geopolitical premium" and "risk premium" to the oil price.

— Trump has shown that such a conflict can arise suddenly, without any obvious reasons, pose a threat not only to Iran, but also to the entire energy sector of the region and last for however long. And the threat of a repeat of such a scenario will persist at least as long as Trump is in the White House. In other words, the price of oil will now be charged for the unpredictability of American politics," Andrianov believes.

Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company, also believes that "even with the full opening of the strait, prices should not be expected to return quickly to pre-conflict levels."

— Importing countries, fearing a new escalation, are likely to increase purchases of raw materials to form reserves. Logistics will also remain more expensive due to the ongoing risk premium and additional transit costs. Under these conditions, even with a protracted truce, oil prices are more likely to consolidate at levels above pre—conflict levels: about $75-80 per barrel of Brent and $50-60 per barrel of Urals," the analyst said in a conversation with Izvestia.

Nevertheless, it is still not necessary to count on the imminent opening of Hormuz. Fars reported that Iran has stopped all tankers passing through the strait in response to Israel's attacks on Lebanon. Earlier it was noted that Tehran will allow ships to pass, but will demand money for each barrel of oil.