Pakistan played an unexpected role in the U.S.-Iran truce. Analysis

The United States and Iran have agreed on a two-week truce and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement was brokered by Pakistan, for which this role in de-escalating the conflict was the greatest diplomatic success. Now Islamabad is preparing to host the delegations of the two warring countries. Why Pakistan became an active participant in the peaceful settlement is described in the Izvestia article.

Pakistan's ties with Iran

• Pakistan's participation in the negotiation process between Iran and the United States seems rather unexpected at first glance. Islamabad has not yet tried on the role of peacemaker or at least mediator between the warring countries. In recent years, active diplomacy has usually been associated with Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, or Turkey, while the country of 240 million with nuclear weapons located near the Middle East has remained outside any geopolitically significant event.

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However, in the current conflict between the United States and Iran, it is Pakistan that harmoniously fits in between them for a number of reasons, becoming perhaps the only player convenient for everyone. First of all, Iran needed a trustworthy moderator. Pakistan suited him because of the close ties and good relations that had developed historically.

• It was Iran that first recognized Pakistan's independence in 1947, and Pakistan, in turn, recognized the Islamic Republic after the 1979 revolution. The former British colony is home to the second largest Shiite community after Iran. Islamabad also represents Tehran's interests in the United States. Unlike many of the usual negotiating intermediaries, Pakistan has not been drawn into the current conflict. There are no American military bases on its territory, which Iran considered legitimate targets for itself, even if they were located in countries friendly to Tehran.

The proximity of the two countries, paradoxically, is confirmed by the two-day conflict that occurred between them in January 2024. At that time, Iran and Pakistan exchanged missile strikes, calling their targets the positions of the Baloch separatist organizations, the Iranian people living on both sides of the border. The very next day, Tehran and Islamabad agreed on de-escalation and continued their usual cooperation.

Pakistan's ties with the United States

• Pakistan has proved to be a convenient partner for the United States. Although their relationship has historically been difficult, Islamabad has made great efforts to curry favor with American President Donald Trump after his return to the US presidency. Pakistan's army commander Asim Munir, who has a reputation as a military head of state, became the leader of national interests. In 2025, Munir and Trump held three face-to-face meetings with each other, which already indicates the high degree of his support from the White House.

• When the conflict between Pakistan and India broke out in 2025, the United States negotiated a cease-fire with both countries. If New Delhi then downplayed Trump's efforts on the issue of a peaceful settlement, Islamabad praised them so much that it officially recommended on behalf of the government that the US president be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Pakistan agreed to join Trump's "Peace Council" and discussed with him sending peacekeepers to the Gaza Strip.

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• Pakistan began to establish relations with the United States primarily in order to get ahead in regional competition with India. The right moment was chosen for this, because it was under Trump that the long-standing cooperation between the United States and India broke down, which led to a trade war between them and a dispute over Russian oil. The opportunity to mediate negotiations with Iran was another chance for Pakistan to get ahead in the unspoken rivalry for the location of the White House.

Pakistan's own interest

Pakistan itself was extremely interested in ending the conflict between the United States and Iran as soon as possible. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had a major impact on many countries in South and Southeast Asia, but it has been particularly painful for Pakistan. It is located very close to the Persian Gulf and therefore naturally relied on the oil of the Middle Eastern monarchies, which was blocked. While other Asian countries could rely on some supplies from Indonesia, Malaysia, or Brunei, Pakistan has never relied on these sources, being far enough away from them.

• The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has also highlighted Pakistan's huge dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from Qatar and Iran. They provide about 20% of the country's total electricity generation, but they almost completely stopped in March. The urgent resumption of its own gas production and coal supplies from South Africa and Indonesia did not help to avoid the energy crisis. In Pakistan, the prices of gasoline and diesel needed to power generators have increased, and civil servants have been given a four-day week. The boom in solar panels, which have been installed in a quarter of households in recent years, has helped to avoid the worst.

• Another significant factor influenced Pakistan's desire to end the conflict in the Middle East. In 2025, he signed a strategic mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia. The text of this agreement has not been published, but the parties noted that it contains a provision stating that an attack on one of the countries will be considered an attack on both. Less than six months later, Saudi Arabia was just subjected to missile and drone attacks by Iran, and in this regard, the question arose whether Pakistan would be committed to complying with the agreement and stand up for its partner.

• Launching a war against Iran was clearly not part of Islamabad's plans. In this case, it would mean fighting on the ground along the entire 900-kilometer border. Given that Pakistan is now actively fighting the Afghan Taliban and insurgents in its own province of Balochistan, and also always keeps a reserve in case of another conflict with India, this would create serious military tension that would be disastrous for the country experiencing an energy crisis. At the same time, the agreement with Saudi Arabia has become a convenient tool for putting pressure on Iran during the negotiations, since Tehran would not be able to withstand a war on two fronts.

China's influence on the negotiations

• Pakistan's zeal in trying to stop the fighting cannot be overlooked by China's influence. Beijing was also extremely interested in preventing the conflict between the United States and Iran from having a negative impact on the economy. It's not just that China itself has been cut off from some of its oil supplies. The emerging energy crisis threatened to plunge the global economy into recession. Long-term high oil prices lead to higher production costs and lower demand, which China, as the main industrial exporter, cannot afford.

• For China, Pakistan is a long-standing partner, acting as a counterweight in rivalry with India and a guide in the Muslim world, in which Beijing has very few allies. In this regard, it is not surprising that China has supported Islamabad's efforts for a peaceful settlement. Moreover, the truce makes it possible to return to discussing Trump's visit to Beijing, which was postponed due to the protracted conflict (we discussed the reasons for postponing the trip here).