Black Gold: who wants to control the European energy market
Recently, a large-scale process of rapid "restructuring" has been unfolding in the global energy market. The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted the operation of a key route through which up to 20% of the world's oil supplies pass. This event not only provoked a global shortage of energy resources, but also launched a supplier struggle for one of the world's main consumers of imported energy resources, Europe. For what reasons many countries want to control the EU market and what this will lead to in the future, see the Izvestia article.
Who needs a war, and who needs a financial strategy
While the information agenda is focused on unblocking the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalating the conflict in Iran, some countries are developing their own strategies to change the geography of the energy market.
The current energy crisis, caused by the shutdown of shipping in the Strait, surpasses the events of the past in scale — 1973, marked by a fourfold increase in fuel prices, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait or the military operation against Saddam Hussein's regime, which raised the price of oil to $147 per barrel in 2008. If at that time we were talking about a loss of 4-6% of supplies, today it is all 20% going through Hormuz.
Since the beginning of the war in Iran, the Persian Gulf has transformed from a global oil hub into a limited system. In particular, Saudi Arabia supports part of exports through the Red Sea, the UAE uses a bypass route through Fujairah, and Iraq, losing its position as a significant supplier, seeks to maintain supplies through the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline, which goes to Turkey. As a result, this results in not only a decrease in supply for the market, but also a shortage of certain types of oil in demand.
In light of recent events, there have been suggestions that Europe will face the need to rationalize the sale of gasoline, diesel fuel and other fuels. The head of the Shell oil company, Wael Sawan, told the Guardian about this during a conference in Texas. "South Asia was the first to feel this blow. Now it has reached Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, and in April it will reach Europe," the top manager said.
Despite the fact that European countries import little energy from the Middle East (the United States is the main supplier of oil and gas), difficult times have come for the European Union. Some politicians fear that the current energy collapse will spill over into the financial sphere. "EU officials urge governments to avoid excessive support measures, warning that (energy. — Izvestia) The shock may escalate into a fiscal crisis," the Financial Times said.
In this regard, the EU has decided to help Turkey, a strategic partner and NATO ally for most European countries. Ankara has developed five alternative oil and gas supply routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, the Turkiye Gazetesi newspaper reported, citing the Ministry of Trade of the republic.
"Our government is making great efforts to open alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz, which are important options for producers and consumers, especially in times of crisis," the newspaper wrote, referring to the words of Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat.
Among the proposed options for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz: overland shipments via Iraq and Syria, the combined Suez Canal – Red Sea–Jordan–Saudi Arabia corridor, as well as transportation via the port of Oman to the UAE and other countries in the region. Additionally, we are talking about a route through the Cape of Good Hope, but this option increases the delivery time of energy resources by 10-15 days, which increases the costs of carriers.
Turkey implemented a similar scheme back in 2014-2016: back then, oil from Syria and Iraq was delivered by land routes, after which it was "purified" by mixing with legal flows, including through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan line. However, in November 2015, in five days, Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft destroyed more than 1,000 fuel tankers in Syria that were carrying crude oil to factories controlled by the Islamic State (a terrorist organization banned in Russia). Then Moscow said that the top leadership of the republic and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan personally were involved in the illegal extraction and transportation of oil flows.
Iraq also decided to find a way out of the situation and began to supply fuel oil through Syria. The Ministry of Oil of the Republic announced its intention to increase exports to increase revenues and support the economy. Before the conflict, Iraq was producing about 4.35 million barrels per day, exporting about 3.4 million barrels, but the escalation in the Middle East has hit the numbers hard.
It is worth noting that the route through Syria is not the only route: Baghdad has resumed pumping oil from the southern province of Basra to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Now the total volume of raw materials that will be transported from Iraq to Turkey will increase to 340 thousand barrels per day.
A small union with a big wallet
Among the world's largest actors in international relations, there has long been a struggle for control of the European market. The EU is both rich and poor — countries have money and demand for goods and services, but lack the resources to meet their needs. Therefore, the political process involves both major players — Russia, the United States, China, India — and smaller countries — Turkey, Great Britain, Japan and other states.
For example, for China, Europe is a large market for rare earth metals and other goods. In 2025, the volume of trade between China and the EU increased by 5.4%, to about $830 billion.
The United States is also considered a key player in the European market. America supplies the countries of the union not only with energy resources, but also with products of the military-industrial complex, and also maintains its military bases in various EU countries. But despite the obvious advantages, the Americans are not able to fully control and influence the European market, American political scientist Malek Dudakov is sure.
— The United States exports about 4 million barrels of oil per day, and buys about 8-9 million barrels from foreign markets. Plus, they supply part of their energy resources to Asian countries: Japan, South Korea, and so on. They are technically unable to fully replace Europe's needs for petroleum products. Therefore, in the next 10 years we will see a reduction in oil and gas production in the United States and supplies to foreign markets. Americans will do this as long as they can earn money," the expert explained.
Turkey is another country that, due to geographical and energy factors, is interested in influencing what is happening in the EU. For Ankara, this is not only a matter of money, but also of status, political weight, and the right to participate in decision-making far beyond its own borders.
The Turkish scheme, as Dmitry Brije, an expert on the Middle East, told Izvestia, works as follows: whoever controls the supply routes influences the price of energy resources, negotiations on sanctions, security, infrastructure and even the architecture of the EU. It is worth noting that after the termination of Ukrainian transit, Ankara became the only route for the supply of Russian pipeline gas through the Turkish Stream.
— Turkey is capable of becoming one of the key energy centers of Europe, but not a monopoly owner of the market. It can integrate into European energy security as an indispensable intermediary, a trade transit hub, and a southern energy gateway, but it can retain its influence only if it is perceived by the EU not as a workaround for Russian gas, but as a platform for diversification," the source said.
However, Turkey's economic problems — inflation, falling living standards — make it particularly sensitive to external pressure, because any blow to the country's logistics automatically activates an internal crisis. Experts believe that for this reason, Ankara is backed by a stronger player and an ally in the North Atlantic Alliance — London. The situation for solving Britain's personal problems is good: the current crisis in relations between the EU and the United States, as well as the war in Iran, allow London to partially take control of Europe into its own hands. However, whether this influence will be retained is another matter.
— Now, when the Americans are trying to transform their relations with both the EU and NATO by force, London sees this as a chance to strengthen its influence on the continent. On the one hand, this is possible, but on the other, the UK will not be able to meet any of the EU's financial or energy demands. She is not able to take this place as a monopolist, but she can simply increase her influence due to the fact that they have room for maneuver," international columnist Andrei Kuzmak shared his opinion with Izvestia.
Thus, many countries are now engaged in redistributing control over energy, and therefore over Europe. In this multi-level political game, any attempt to create an alternative to the United States automatically turns into a point of impact. The Americans are unlikely to allow Turkey, Britain or any other country to shake their influence in the EU.
However, if the United States does begin to reduce production, control is likely to be redistributed among several leading countries or given to a single strong player.
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