Taking a break: How lasting will the truce be between the US and Iran
After more than a month of intense confrontation, the United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week truce. It was reached at the last moment, less than an hour before the expiration of Donald Trump's ultimatum. At the same time, both sides declared victory, although key contradictions, primarily around the Strait of Hormuz, remain unresolved. At the same time, the United States agreed to Iran's terms, accepting its 10-point plan as the basis for negotiations. Neither Washington nor Tehran is interested in resuming hostilities, which increases the chances of maintaining the ceasefire and the gradual transition of the conflict to a diplomatic plane.
Who emerged victorious from the fight
The United States and Iran declared victory after more than a month of conflict in the Middle East, which was accompanied by sharp volatility in global financial markets and a jump in oil prices. The statements of the parties were made immediately after the agreement on a two—week truce was reached - it was concluded less than an hour before the expiration of the ultimatum of the President of the United States.
The American and Iranian interpretations of what happened turned out to be diametrically opposed. Washington insists that it is the United States that has achieved a strategic result. Donald Trump, in a conversation with France-Presse (AFP), declared a "complete and unconditional victory," stressing that the United States had managed to force Tehran to negotiate. According to him, the ten-point plan presented by Iran has become the "working basis" for a future agreement, and most of the previous disagreements have already been resolved. White House Spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt drew attention to the fact that the United States achieved its main military objectives in Iran in 38 days, against the originally planned deadline of four to six weeks.
In Tehran, on the contrary, they said that it was Iran that emerged victorious from the confrontation. The Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic reported that Washington was forced to accept the Iranian ten-point proposal as the basis of the negotiation process. The statement emphasizes that the United States agreed to the key principles of the document, including the lifting of sanctions, the termination of international restrictive resolutions, the payment of compensation, the withdrawal of American troops from the Middle East, as well as recognition of Iran's right to further enrich uranium.
In addition, the Iranian side claims that the United States agreed with the principle of non—aggression and actually recognized Tehran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key energy routes in the world. It is this point that remains the central element of the controversy.
Orientalist Kirill Semenov told Izvestia that Iran builds its position based not only on economic, but also on political interests. Tehran is seeking the complete lifting of sanctions, including restrictions on oil exports and access to the global financial system, and wants to eliminate the possibility of their automatic return. At the same time, it is important for Iran that the possible agreement does not look like a concession: it should show that the country has not abandoned its strategic goals, but only adjusted them.
The expert draws attention to the fact that Donald Trump's statements about his readiness to conclude a deal as soon as possible are accompanied by direct signals about the possibility of returning to a military scenario in the event of a failure of negotiations. According to Kirill Semenov, the United States is translating the threat of military escalation into the format of a "diplomatic ultimatum", maintaining it as an instrument of pressure.
At the same time, as the expert emphasizes, the positions of the parties remain largely incompatible, and Israel acts as an additional factor of instability, which is able to influence the course of negotiations and, under certain conditions, disrupt potential agreements.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the announced truce, but stressed that it does not apply to the Lebanese direction. According to Israeli media, even after the ceasefire was announced, the Israeli Air Force continued to strike at Iranian targets, indicating continued tension and the risk of continued conflict.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Moscow had helped resolve the situation in the Middle East, acting within the framework of international law, its own national interests and humanistic principles. Commenting on the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, she noted that the approach based on aggressive and unprovoked pressure eventually failed.
Trump backed down
Negotiations between the parties are scheduled to begin on April 10 in Islamabad. The ISNA news agency reported that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf has been appointed as the head of the Iranian delegation. A two-week ceasefire has been announced for the period of consultations. According to reports, it will apply not only to the direct confrontation between the United States and Iran, but also to related regional conflicts, including the situation in Lebanon, where a cease-fire is expected between Israel and the Hezbollah movement.
Despite the formal truce, no compromise has yet been reached on the key issue of the Strait of Hormuz. Washington demands the complete opening of the waterway for free navigation and guarantees of uninterrupted oil supplies. Tehran insists on maintaining control over the passage and offers a regulated transit regime with the coordination of its armed forces. The Iranian leadership makes it clear that they do not consider this issue as a subject of concessions.
This indicates Washington's retreat from the initial line of pressure. In Tehran, this is interpreted as a strategic success: instead of capitulating to threats, Iran has managed to turn the conflict into a diplomatic plane, where issues of lifting sanctions, security and economic compensation are being discussed.
Andrey Baklanov, Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats and Professor at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics, noted in an interview with Izvestia that, despite the high level of escalation, such conflicts usually end in negotiations. However, the current situation, he said, is characterized by Iran's tougher stance. The expert emphasizes that Tehran is trying to avoid a repeat of the previous scenario, in which temporary agreements only gave the enemy time to regroup and subsequent pressure.
In this regard, Iran, according to Baklanov, is interested not in a short-term pause, but in reaching a stable and comprehensive agreement that will eliminate the possibility of a return to cyclical escalation.
At the same time, a number of observers doubt the prospects of the negotiation process. Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, points to the continuing contradictions, primarily on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. In his opinion, it is this factor that can negate diplomatic efforts.
"The two—week truce will be used by the parties to restore resources, replenish supplies and regroup forces, while the negotiations themselves risk ending in failure," he told Izvestia.
The expert does not rule out a repeat of the previously observed scenario: disruption of negotiations, targeted attacks on the Iranian leadership, a new escalation and a subsequent return to dialogue on tougher terms.
If the United States really wanted to continue fighting, attacks on Iran could have been launched as early as this night, Iraqi military analyst Safaa al-Assam told Izvestia. However, according to him, Donald Trump's latest decision to postpone the deadline indicates the opposite: neither Washington nor Tehran is interested in further escalation. The expert also emphasizes that Trump wants to resolve the Iranian issue as soon as possible against the background of internal problems in the United States — a drop in his rating, the upcoming elections and difficulties for Republicans. Therefore, the current ceasefire has every chance of becoming stable and moving into a long-term settlement.
Iran and Oman intend to charge ships for passage through Hormuz
It was the control of the strait that became the main lever of pressure for Tehran during the conflict. Restrictions on the passage of ships have led to an increase in oil prices and increased pressure on the global economy. Against this background, Iran's tough stance allowed it not only to avoid fulfilling the American ultimatum, but also to achieve a transition to negotiations on its own terms.
A few days ago, Donald Trump made extremely harsh statements, threatening to "send Iran back to the Stone Age" and strike at key infrastructure, including power plants, oil facilities and transport hubs. However, in the end, the United States agreed to a truce without achieving its demands.
The announcement of the truce is the fourth time that Donald Trump has postponed the implementation of threats to strike Iran's energy and civilian infrastructure. Initially, Washington demanded that Tehran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours — the ultimatum was issued on March 21, but the deadline was subsequently postponed several times.: first for five days, then for ten, and finally for another day. The latest extension came amid a stern warning from the American president that "an entire civilization could perish overnight" if Iran refuses to meet the deadline.
Oil markets reacted to the announced truce with a moderate decline in quotations. The price of Brent and WTI crude oil dropped below $96 per barrel. Gas prices in Europe at the beginning of trading on April 8 are falling by 18.5%, to $518.6 per thousand cubic meters, according to data from the London ICE exchange. Nevertheless, analysts warn that a steady decline in prices is possible only in the case of a long-term settlement and the guaranteed opening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.
At the same time, the Times of Israel sources note that the two-week truce may be accompanied by the introduction of new economic mechanisms in the Strait of Hormuz. According to them, Iran and Oman intend to charge ships for passage through the waters, and Tehran plans to use the funds received to rebuild after the conflict. Previously, this practice had not been applied: the strait, despite being located in the territorial waters of the two countries, was traditionally considered an international route with free navigation. In addition, before the escalation, there were no technical restrictions on transit — more than 100 ships passed through the strait every day as part of an established traffic system.
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