Live chain of events: How the US ultimatum is pushing the Middle East towards a major war

US President Donald Trump has threatened to "destroy civilization" in the absence of agreements with Tehran. Moreover, American forces attacked Kharq Island, a key energy hub of Iran, through which the bulk of the country's oil exports pass. The intensification of rhetoric and increased shelling of Iran's key infrastructure, including transport and energy hubs, has been observed in recent days. However, Tehran is demonstrating its resilience and willingness to defend its interests, including the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, diplomatic work did not stop even in the conditions of the sixth week of the war: the American and Iranian sides conducted a dialogue, and the mediators, primarily Pakistan, tried to bring the fighting to an end.

What does Trump's new rhetoric mean?

US President Donald Trump initially promised that the military operation against Iran would last from four to six weeks. Recently, he has resorted to the tactics of ultimatums, demanding concessions from Iran. At the same time, he postponed the deadline several times, explaining his decision by the progress in the negotiations. At the same time, however, he was toughening up his rhetoric.

Photo: REUTERS/Majid Asgaripour

On April 7, 12 hours before the deadline, he posted a high-profile message on his social network.:

"An entire civilization will die tonight, and it will never be revived. I don't want this to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have had a complete and total regime change, when other, smarter and less radical minds prevail, perhaps something revolutionarily beautiful will happen, who knows? We will find out tonight, at one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world. 47 years of extortion, corruption and death will finally be over. May God bless the great people of Iran!"

These statements have become one of the harshest in the entire conflict. Moreover, this is not only about pressure on the Iranian leadership, but also about rhetoric affecting the country and its population as a whole.

Andrei Baklanov, Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats and Professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, believes that Washington's current rhetoric goes beyond even harsh political practice and already affects the fundamental foundations of the international order. According to him, statements about the "destruction of civilization" actually raise the question of the admissibility of the very logic of the existence of states and peoples. We are talking about the intention to eliminate one of the oldest civilizations, and this is absolutely unprecedented, he stressed in an interview with Izvestia.

— Look at the reaction of the United Nations and UNESCO: the reaction is extremely weak and expressionless. It is our own fault that we let such figures loose completely. If this trend is not stopped, then he may not like the Slavic civilization or some other, - said Andrey Baklanov.

Lebanese political analyst Ali Rizzk tells Izvestia that Donald Trump's harsh rhetoric may have the opposite effect. According to him, such threats strengthen the positions of those who advocate the use of force as a deterrent within the Iranian establishment. At the same time, this changes the perception of what is happening at the societal level: the conflict is increasingly seen not as limited pressure on the authorities, but as a campaign directed against the country as a whole, which strengthens internal consolidation and narrows the space for compromise or pro-American positions.

Iran suspends talks after threats

On April 6, Tehran rejected Washington's proposal for a 45-day truce brokered by Pakistan, stressing that it stands for a complete and final cessation of hostilities. The Iranian side presented its own package of conditions, including ten points.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has asked US President Donald Trump to extend the deadline for concluding an agreement with Iran by two weeks. According to him, diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in the Middle East continue to progress steadily and may lead to tangible results in the near future if the space for the negotiation process is preserved. According to White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt, Trump has reviewed Pakistan's proposal.

At the same time, Axios sources note that some progress has been recorded in US-Iranian contacts over the past 24 hours, but reaching a ceasefire agreement by the deadline set by Trump is still assessed as unlikely.

An additional factor in the escalation was the cessation by Tehran of all contacts to resolve the conflict. According to media reports, this step followed Trump's harsh statements about the "destruction of civilization" and was intended to demonstrate the republic's political position.

The military component of the conflict is also intensifying. US forces have attacked Kharq Island, a key Iranian energy hub through which up to 90% of the country's oil exports pass. According to media reports, more than 50 targets were hit. At the same time, representatives of the US administration emphasize that the strikes were limited in nature and were aimed exclusively at military infrastructure.

Despite Trump's threats, civilian infrastructure and oil facilities have not become a direct target of attacks at the moment. Nevertheless, the very possibility of such a scenario is of serious concern. Iran has already warned that if the "red lines" are crossed, retaliatory actions may extend beyond the Middle East.

Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, notes a temporary decrease in the intensity of rocket attacks from Iran, but considers this rather a pause before a possible escalation. According to him, in the last 24 hours, the main activity has come from Hezbollah, which continues to strike the border areas of Israel using rockets and drones. The current situation is perceived by the Israeli side as the "calm before the storm," and the likelihood of a diplomatic settlement is assessed as extremely low.

— Since the morning of [April 7], the Israeli and US Air Forces have been increasing the pace of attacks on Iran's strategic infrastructure as the deadline for the ultimatum approaches. Attacks are being carried out on airports, railway junctions, highways in order to paralyze the movement of the Iranian military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps," Yanushevsky told Izvestia.

The expert regards such actions as deliberate pressure on Tehran in order to achieve concessions.

He also draws attention to the symbolic significance of the upcoming dates: on April 8, 40 days will pass from the date of the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which is of particular importance in the Shiite tradition and has historically often been accompanied by a surge of mobilization activity, including protests and increased political dynamics.

Signs of social mobilization in Iran are already being recorded. Residents of various cities, including Tehran, are forming human chains around bridges, power plants and other critical infrastructure facilities. Such actions are seen as an attempt to deter potential attacks and demonstrate the willingness of the population to protect national facilities.

Criticism of the White House's policy is also heard inside the United States. Joe Kent, the former head of the American National Counterterrorism Center, who resigned after the start of the operation against Iran, said that Donald Trump believes that he is threatening Iran with destruction, but in fact America itself is under threat.

Kent stressed that in the event of an attempt to "erase the Iranian civilization," the United States would cease to be perceived as a stabilizing force in the world and would begin to be seen as a source of chaos. According to him, this will actually lead to the loss of the status of the world's leading superpower. He also noted that such steps could undermine the American economy and destroy the existing global order.

In conclusion, Kent expressed the hope that Trump would find the political will to move to serious negotiations, abandoning a course based on emotions, escalation and destruction.

Against this background, according to Axios, discussions are intensifying among Democrats in Congress about possible steps to remove the president from power. In particular, the option of putting the issue of impeachment to a vote or sending an appeal to the Cabinet of Ministers calling for the use of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution is being considered. It regulates the succession of power in the event of the death, resignation or inability of the president to govern the country.

On April 7, the UN Security Council was unable to adopt a draft resolution on the Strait of Hormuz due to the veto of Russia and China. The document was supported by 11 countries, two more abstained. Russia's permanent Representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzia, explained that Moscow could not support the draft, as it would create a dangerous precedent for international law, contain incorrect and confrontational formulations, and could legitimize the use of force by unscrupulous states.

The consequences of six weeks of conflict

The economic and humanitarian consequences of the war are already widespread. For Iran, the strikes on oil refineries, power plants and port infrastructure resulted in a sharp reduction in export revenues and disruption of basic life support systems. Power and water outages have affected millions of citizens, and the healthcare system is experiencing acute shortages of medicines and fuel. According to some estimates, the country's economy may shrink by 30-40% in the coming months.

Israel also faces serious costs. Constant attacks from Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis are causing casualties among civilians and reservists. The country's economy is under pressure: financial markets are responding with a drop, tourism is almost stopped, and defense spending has increased significantly.

Meanwhile, the risk of terrorist attacks is also increasing. On the morning of April 7, the Israeli Consulate in Istanbul was attacked. As a result of the attack, police officers were injured, and one of the attackers was eliminated. This incident has become another evidence that the conflict is gradually moving beyond the immediate participants.

The countries of the Persian Gulf find themselves in an ambivalent situation. On the one hand, the weakening of Iran potentially opens up opportunities for strengthening their regional influence. On the other hand, increased security threats, attacks on oil tankers, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have already reduced export revenues and increased security costs.

The consequences of the conflict go far beyond the region. Rising energy prices are putting pressure on the global economy, and the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Iran could trigger a new wave of migration through Turkey and Iraq. At the same time, the countries of the region, despite their formal neutrality, are increasingly drawn into the confrontation.