Support the victory: will Vance's visit to Hungary help Orban in the elections

U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance traveled to Hungary to support his ideologically close Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the election. The expert community believes that although Vance's visit will not have a decisive impact on the outcome of the April 12 vote, some of the wavering voters may eventually give preference to the ruling Fidesz party. The opposition Tisa party also has a real chance of winning the parliamentary elections. Whether American support for Orban will help him retain the prime minister's chair in the face of pressure from the EU and the opposition is in the Izvestia article.

Vance flew to Budapest

The arrival of J.D. Vance in Budapest on April 7 was an epochal event for Hungary. No U.S. president or vice president has visited the country since George W. Bush visited it in 2006. The high-ranking guest was met at the airport by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. Vance went to talks with Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

The arrival of the American vice president took place five days before the country's most important parliamentary elections. On April 12, it will be decided who will head the government for the next four years. At a joint press conference, Vance called the Hungarian prime minister an exemplary statesman who cares about his country's energy security and achieving peace in Ukraine.

—Viktor Orban will win, I am sure of that, as well as in the continuation of our positive cooperation,— said the US Vice President.

He asked the Hungarian prime minister if he was confident of victory, to which Orban replied: "That's the plan." Orban also said that he had been waiting for this meeting for a long time, and with the election of Trump, a "golden age" had begun in relations between the United States and Hungary.

The White House does not hide its sympathies for the Hungarian authorities. Even before arriving in Budapest, Vance called the Hungarian leader his "old friend." At the end of March, US President Donald Trump declared that Orban was "a strong leader who achieves results."

— Orban is a long—time associate of Trump, who is personally close to him ideologically. In addition, he is the leader of the pan—European Patriots for Europe party, which is close to Trump in its respect for conservative values and strict migration policy. And Trump needs to show that he does not abandon his own," Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

Suffice it to recall that Viktor Orban was one of the most active and outspoken supporters of Trump among the current heads of EU states during the 2024 US election campaign. Then he visited the Trump residence at Mar-a-Lago twice. But for Hungarians, this is not the main thing.

— Vance's arrival will have little effect on Hungarian sympathies. First of all, they vote based on internal considerations. The state of schools, hospitals and roads is more important to them than big geopolitics," he told Izvestia. — If we take the external aspect, the main influence is exerted by the EU. And Hungarians will vote based on their attitude towards the European Union. He gives money and jobs — not to the USA.

The war with Iran launched by the United States and Israel poses serious risks to the ruling forces, as a result of which fuel prices have risen, including in Hungary. At the same time, Bogdan Bezpalko, a political scientist and member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, believes that Vance's arrival may convince wavering voters to vote for the Fidesz party.

"If the United States, as one of the most powerful forces in the world, maintains good relations with Orban and respects him as a politician, it means that he is able to protect Hungary's national interests, and therefore we should vote for him," he told Izvestia.

The pre-election situation in Hungary

A few days before the elections, tensions are rising in Hungary. The election campaign is accompanied by a fierce confrontation between the ruling Fidesz party and the opposition Tisa party, led by MEP Peter Magyar. The Tisovtsev program says that they are going to abandon economic cooperation with Russia by 2035. They are also not against Ukraine's accession to the EU.

By the way, in the context of the elections, Brussels has tightened financial and political pressure on Budapest as much as possible. For example, statements about the need to deprive Hungary and other countries of the union of the right of veto in voting on foreign policy and security issues have become more frequent in the EU. Budapest is currently blocking the 20th package of sanctions against Russia and the allocation of a loan of €90 billion to Kiev. According to Politico, Germany and Sweden are most actively in favor of changing the decision-making mechanism.

Pro-government opinion research centers point to Fidesz's leadership with an advantage of up to 7-8 percentage points. According to them, Orban's party enjoys strong support in rural areas and among the older generation. Opposition polls, on the contrary, predict a victory for the Tisa party. She is popular with young people and residents of Budapest. Polls predict that the party will win about 115 seats out of 199 and thus be able to form a majority government. The Western press does not get tired of writing: for the first time in 16 years (Fidesz has been in power since 2010) Viktor Orban is really at risk of losing the election.

However, there is no clear favorite yet. Experts interviewed by Izvestia emphasize that both Fidesz and Tisa can win equally.

— The chances that Orban will survive depend on how many single-member districts his party can get in the province. There are about 100 districts in total, and he should win in at least 60," said Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies.

In addition, the nationalist Nasha Rodina party may enter parliament. Her rating is currently hovering around 4-7%. She can side with Fidesz and support the opposition, and then their electorate will influence the outcome of the elections and the formation of the future government.

In the face of political competition, the main opposing parties have intensified their mutual attacks, accusing each other of having close ties with foreign countries. The opposition accuses Fidesz of cooperating with Russia. In the Western media, the alleged wiretapping of telephone conversations between Szijjarto and Orban with their Russian counterparts Sergey Lavrov and Vladimir Putin is becoming more frequent.

At the same time, Orban's team consistently talks about Peter Magyar's work for Kiev and Brussels, as well as the influence of the Ukrainian special services on the elections. J. D. Vance also spoke about Kiev's interference in Hungary's internal affairs, noting that Washington is also aware of Ukraine's attempts to influence the US vote in 2024.

Orban noted that if the EU had not blocked President Trump's peace initiatives, peace would have been restored in Ukraine long ago. The White House is interested in the victory of Fidesz and Orban, so that it would be easier for Washington to promote its position in the EU, Vladimir Bruter believes.

— Trump needs someone who supports him in order to communicate his positions through him. He wants someone to block loans for Ukraine, who expresses an alternative point of view, prevents the collective Brussels from establishing its own order everywhere," he said.

However, now the trilateral negotiations between the Russian Federation, the United States and Ukraine are on pause due to the participation of the American side in the Iranian war. At the same time, Moscow and Kiev continue their dialogue with Washington through their own channels.