Swedish babble: Stockholm reduces direct deliveries of air defense systems to Ukraine
Due to the war in the Middle East, Sweden is less likely to directly transfer air defense systems to Ukraine and is relying more on joint Western supplies, Russian Ambassador to Stockholm Sergey Belyaev told Izvestia. At the same time, in 2025, the country was one of the three largest European "donors" to Kiev. The European Parliament already recognizes that there are not enough systems to transfer to Kiev, and, as Izvestia found out, they propose using a loan of €90 billion, which has not even been allocated yet. Experts predict that as the situation around Iran escalates, the shortage of interceptors in Ukraine may become critical. How the Middle East crisis affects Europe's plans to arm Kiev is described in the Izvestia article.
Sweden transfers fewer air defense systems
The conflict in the Middle East, where air attacks are still playing a key role, has dramatically increased competition for air defense systems and interceptors. This is already affecting Kiev's allies in Europe, in particular, Sweden. This is despite the fact that last year the country ranked third among European "donors" with €3.7 billion in military investments in Ukraine: only Germany (€9 billion) and the United Kingdom (€5.4 billion) are ahead, followed by Norway (€3.6 billion) and Denmark (€2.6 billion). billion).
Stockholm's dependence on American supplies makes it act more cautiously in supporting Ukraine, Russian Ambassador to the country Sergey Belyaev told Izvestia.
"Therefore, in the latest Swedish aid packages to Kiev, another path is increasingly being chosen — not so much the direct transfer of systems as the financing of various Western initiatives, including American programs," he said.
One of the most illustrative examples was the TRIDON Mk2 air defense system scheme. Stockholm and Copenhagen announced its purchase for Ukraine on February 3: it was not about the transfer of complexes from availability, but about the joint financing of new supplies. Sweden continued this line in its 21st aid package to Ukraine dated February 19: the key point was the purchase of newly manufactured air defense systems that "are capable of protecting ports, residential areas, power plants or military units," for 4.3 billion crowns, or about $473 million.
At the same time, Stockholm is building up its own air defense. Back in January, the government announced an expansion of ground-based air defense by about 15 billion crowns, or about $1.7 billion. In other words, Sweden is now forced to solve two tasks at once: to help Kiev and at the same time to close its own vulnerabilities.
At the same time, we are not talking about curtailing Swedish assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine — rather, its structure is changing. As of February 2026, the country provided 103 billion Swedish kronor ($10.8 billion) in support to Kiev, Evgeny Sumarokov, associate professor of the Department of International Business at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, said in a conversation with Izvestia.
"Moreover, we are talking not only about direct supplies: funds are regularly allocated for purchases for the Ukrainian defense industry, for the purchase of equipment from Swedish and foreign companies, for contributions to coalition funds, as well as for the maintenance of Swedish equipment in Ukraine and the training of personnel," he explained.
Sweden is now betting on longer-term formats of support for Ukraine. Stockholm is preparing to expand military-technical cooperation with Kiev, Sergei Belyaev emphasized.
— Military-industrial cooperation with Ukraine is considered as one of the key elements of its long-term support. It's not just about supplies, but about trying to build a more sustainable model with elements of joint production and technology exchange. This is also fixed at the political level: the parties agreed to join forces in the development and production of weapons," the diplomat said.
In particular, contacts have already been established between the Swedish Saab concern and the Ukrainian defense sector, and aviation and surveillance systems are among the possible areas of cooperation.
Europe is facing a shortage of air defense
The air defense situation in Sweden is only part of a broader problem. In fact, Europe openly recognizes the shortage of such defense systems. In March, European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius warned of a shortage of anti-ballistic missiles for Ukraine, the Persian Gulf countries and Europe itself, and Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said that the possibilities for sending the SAMP/T system were "severely strained and limited" given European needs and the assistance previously provided to Kiev.
The head of the Ukraine–EU parliamentary cooperation committee in the European Parliament, Pekka Tovery, told Izvestia that Brussels would continue to insist on supplies to Kiev, and a loan of €90 billion could be used to purchase air defense systems, which Hungary is currently blocking.
— The problem is that there are very few European systems now. For example, the fact that France has provided Ukraine with one of its SAMP/T systems for testing is a good sign. If this system proves effective, especially against ballistic missiles, its production can be increased fairly quickly. Some other European systems are also being supplied, which can also be considered a good signal," he said.
Thus, €60 billion of the total loan amount should be used to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities. Preference is given to purchases from European manufacturers, however, if there are no necessary systems inside the EU or the time frame is long, the mechanism allows purchases outside it.
In the meantime, the union is trying to close the shortage in several ways: through joint purchases, financing of American and multilateral mechanisms, as well as accelerating its own production. In January, the head of Germany's Diehl Defense told Reuters that the company expects to produce up to 10 IRIS-T SLM/SLS air defense systems in 2026, and increase production capacity to 16 per year within two years. According to him, the production of IRIS-T missiles has increased 10-fold since 2021, but this is still not enough.
Kiev needs interceptors for Patriot
However, even the acceleration of European production does not remove the main problem for Kiev — dependence on American Patriots. The authorities in Ukraine have repeatedly stressed that these systems remain key to them in repelling ballistic threats. Vladimir Zelensky has repeatedly stated that the failure of even one such installation could have serious consequences.
The biggest shortage today is precisely the Patriot missiles. During the autumn-winter season of 2025-2026, the Armed Forces of Ukraine received no more than 600 such missiles during the entire conflict, Kirill Kazakov, a political scientist and lecturer at the RANEPA Institute of Management, noted in a conversation with Izvestia.
In March 2026, Zelensky called obtaining at least the minimum required number of PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles for Patriot the only option to protect Ukraine from Russian ballistic attacks. At the current rate of global production of PAC-3 MSE — about 50 units per month — a systemic shortage may appear in the coming weeks, Kazakov believes.
— There are no full-fledged Patriot analogues in Europe. Even those systems that are considered European— such as NASAMS or IRIS-T, are somehow tied to American licenses, components or ammunition. Therefore, the EU is not able to fully replace the United States in supplying strategic air defense to Ukraine, and any escalation in the Middle East automatically increases the risk of a shortage of interceptors for Kiev," the expert said.
The ability of Kiev's European allies to compensate for a possible reduction in American air defense supplies remains extremely limited, said Nadezhda Kapustina, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. According to her, the European countries' own reserves are small, and the military-industrial capacities in the region have been declining for many years based on the American "security umbrella."
— Even where supplies continue, we are talking about limited resources, and not about the ability to quickly and in the right volume saturate Ukraine with interceptors. Attempts to deploy pan—European production run into bureaucracy, differing standards, and a lack of political willingness to invest in defense comparable to American funds," she concluded.
Germany has already transferred IRIS-T SLM systems and one of its Patriot complexes to Ukraine, but it itself is faced with a shortage of air defense systems. France and Italy continue to supply via SAMP/T, but these volumes are not enough to cover Kiev's requests, experts emphasize.
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