Term of Pride: Iran rejected the US ultimatum and demands a full settlement
Iran rejected the US proposal for a temporary ceasefire and a transition to peace talks, demanding a full and immediate end to the conflict. On April 8, Donald Trump's ultimatum to Tehran expires, and Washington is sharply tightening its rhetoric. An additional factor of tension remains the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran still refuses to open. At the same time, consultations are continuing with the mediation of Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan on a possible 45-day truce, the last chance to prevent a large—scale escalation with attacks on Iran's civilian infrastructure and energy facilities in the Persian Gulf. According to the American president, the negotiations are "going well," and the Iranian side is acting in good faith.
A new term from Trump
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Bagai confirmed receipt of the American proposal, but described it as "absolutely unacceptable," noting that Tehran had already prepared an official response. According to the Iranian IRNA news agency, it includes ten points and reflects the rejection of temporary solutions in favor of a comprehensive settlement.
US President Donald Trump said that Iran's response was "significant," but Washington was not satisfied with its content. According to him, the signal received from Tehran cannot be considered sufficient to move towards an agreement. According to IRNA, Tehran's demands include a complete cessation of hostilities in the region, ensuring safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, restoring damaged infrastructure, and lifting sanctions.
Earlier, Axios reported that the United States, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms of a potential cease-fire. It was about freezing the conflict for 45 days, which in the future could lead to the end of the war. At the same time, according to the White House representative, the discussed 45-day plan remains only one of the options, and Donald Trump has not yet made a final decision on it.
Initially, the president's deadline expired on the evening of April 6, but Trump personally extended it until Tuesday, 20:00 East Coast time (3:00 Moscow time on April 8).
This is not the first ultimatum from the American leader. On March 26, he announced a ten-day pause in strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, declaring "good" negotiations with Tehran, while a five-day "energy truce" had already been in effect, ending on March 27.
Donald Trump
At the same time, Washington is intensifying its military rhetoric. The head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, said: the United States is ready to launch the largest strike on Iran since the beginning of the operation, and its intensity may increase in the coming days. Donald Trump, in turn, admitted that the US military is capable of "destroying Iran overnight," not ruling out the implementation of such a scenario on April 7.
According to the American president, in the absence of an agreement, the United States has a plan to destroy all of Iran's power plants and bridges on Wednesday night.
At the same time, in an interview with Axios, Trump said that the United States was in "deep negotiations" with the republic and that an agreement could be reached before the deadline. He also threatened that otherwise the United States would launch attacks on facilities critical to Iran's civilian infrastructure. The American leader claims that the negotiations are "going well," and the Iranian side, in his assessment, is interested in concluding a deal and is acting in good faith. The issue of restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the priorities for the United States, the president added. In turn, Iran has repeatedly stated that it will not accept ultimatums and considers any threats as pressure aimed at disrupting diplomacy.
Hadi Issa Dalul, an expert on international relations, believes that Tehran will not make concessions in response to Donald Trump's ultimatum, since Iran sees no incentive for compromise. According to him, for the republic's leadership, including the supreme leader and law enforcement agencies, issues of the nuclear program and support for allies in the region are not a matter of bargaining, but the basis of the state strategy.
"From a pragmatic point of view, the country has already adapted to the sanctions pressure, having gained experience in circumventing restrictions and strengthening its position in the field of defense," the expert told Izvestia.
Attacks on Iranian infrastructure
Recent attacks on infrastructure have become an additional factor of tension. We are talking, in particular, about the attack on the B1 bridge in Karaj, west of Tehran, which, according to the Iranian media, was hit twice — the second time during the work of emergency services.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said attacks on civilian infrastructure, including bridges, would not force the Iranians to capitulate. According to him, such actions turned out to be both ineffective and illegal, and attempts to force the country to make concessions by military means will not lead to political results.
As a result, a spiral of escalation is forming. If at least a temporary agreement on extending the negotiation process is not reached by April 8, the likelihood of a military scenario will increase significantly.
Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, believes that the very fact of the extension of the ultimatum indicates the preservation of behind-the-scenes contacts between the parties, probably with the mediation of third countries. According to him, the new postponement is actually being used to completely exhaust the diplomatic window, while such a limited time horizon indicates the skepticism of the US administration regarding the prospects for reaching an agreement.
"In the absence of agreements after the deadline, it is possible to switch to large—scale US strikes on Iranian energy facilities, as well as to limited ground operations, including potential amphibious landings," Roman Yanushevsky told Izvestia.
At the same time, in his opinion, the parties at this stage have neither the political capabilities nor the willingness to conclude even a partial deal, including options involving restrictions on Iran's nuclear program and easing the situation around the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for mutual concessions.
Jeremy Kuzmarov, editor-in-chief of Covert Action magazine, is confident that the further development of the conflict may be decisive, primarily due to the domestic political situation in the United States. In his opinion, American society is already critical of the current military campaign, and possible losses among military personnel can dramatically increase public discontent and pressure on the administration of Donald Trump to end the conflict.
"Under these conditions, Trump is forced to find a way out of the escalation in the near future, otherwise he risks facing serious political consequences, including loss of power," Jeremy Kuzmarov told Izvestia.
Consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains an important factor of tension. Earlier, Donald Trump stated that the United States does not depend on oil supplies through this route, and responsibility for ensuring freedom of navigation should be redistributed between countries using it in their logistics.
Iran, in turn, had previously discussed the idea of introducing fees for the passage of ships through the Strait by analogy with the Suez Canal, and also promoted the concept of the "Hormuz Pact", which involves joint management of the route with the participation of regional and international players. Under these conditions, the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased by more than 90% since the end of February.
Artem Valeev, CEO of FCS-Service Group, told Izvestia that the situation with logistics through Iran and the entire Persian Gulf region remains extremely tense. According to him, the crisis primarily affected energy supplies: supplies of oil and petroleum products on a number of routes actually stopped due to a sharp increase in insurance risks. Some insurers have withdrawn from the market and refuse to cover operations in the region, which makes individual flights economically impractical and in some cases impossible.
According to Artem Valeev, the market is currently operating in a situation of high uncertainty, and key decisions are being made "manually." In practice, this has already led to a redistribution of cargo flows: some supplies go to bypass routes through South Asia, some to overland corridors through Central Asia. The use of multimodal schemes with additional transshipment and alternative ports is increasing, however, this increases the length of logistics chains, the number of transshipments, as well as insurance and transaction costs, reducing the predictability of delivery times.
He also notes an increase in the cost of transportation in almost all southern destinations. In general, the complex cost of delivery, according to him, increased by 10-30%, on certain high—risk routes - up to 60%, and in cases of urgent deliveries — almost doubled.
A meeting of the UN Security Council on Bahrain's initiative on the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has been postponed to this week, Reuters reports. Initially, the draft allowed for the use of "all necessary means" to protect shipping in the Persian and Oman Gulfs, which is actually interpreted as permission to use force. According to the Associated Press, Russia, China and France opposed it, after which the text was softened and is now limited to provisions on defensive measures.
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