Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich on April 7: who will qualify for the Champions League semi–finals

The UEFA Champions League (Champions League) playoffs are coming to its logical end, and in the quarterfinals of the tournament we are already waiting for the iconic confrontation between Real Madrid and Bayern. If the Munich team took second place in the overall table in the group stage and easily guaranteed themselves entry to the 1/8 finals, then the way of the "cream" before this match was thorny and difficult. Whether Harry Kane will play, what is the role of Kylian Mbappe in the match and what will be the pattern of the game — in the material of Izvestia.

The teams' path to the quarterfinals

Bayern are in phenomenal shape. In 28 matches in the German championship, the Munich team managed to hit the opponents' goal exactly 100 times, with a 73-goal difference between goals scored and conceded. At the same time, Vincent Kompany's team also played very confidently in the group stage, losing only once to Arsenal in London (3:1), which subsequently took first place in the table.

Thanks to these results, Bayern avoided play-offs and defeated Italian Atalanta in the 1/8 finals with a total score of 10.:2. The German team is approaching the Champions League quarterfinals in excellent shape, despite the injuries and disqualifications of the leading players, which will be discussed later.

As for Real Madrid, the cream-colored ones have been surrounding themselves with problems all season: the change of head coach Xabi Alonso, the early departure from the Spanish Cup from Albacete (3:2), the defeat in the final of the Spanish Super Cup from Barcelona (3:2) and the constant conflicts in the team could not but affect on the club's results.

At the moment, Real Madrid is in second place in La Liga, seven points behind the Catalans. Madrid finished ninth in the Champions League group stage table and met Manchester City in the play-offs. The "townspeople" were unable to put up proper resistance, losing to the "cream" in both matches (3:0 and 1:2). Despite all the circumstances, Alvaro Arbeloa's team has reached the quarterfinals, where they will try to show the "magic of the royal club".

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The uniforms of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich

In the last five matches, Munich have scored four wins and drawn a match with Bayer Leverkusen (1-1). The Bavarians beat Borussia Dortmund (3:2), defeated Borussia Monchengladbach (4:1), skated through Berlin's Soyuz (4:0) and made an incredible comeback against Freiburg (3:2), scoring all their goals in the 81st, 92ndthe 99th and 99th minutes.

It is especially important to mention Serge Gnabry, who, in the absence of Jamal Musiala, has become a worthy option in the center of the field. Although Gnabry is more limited in functionality than Musial, the German midfielder does most of the work in pressing the team, sometimes replacing the recently relegated Kane. He skillfully plays in the central axis, creates threats, and also opens up well between the opponents' central defenders, leading them away and giving space for his teammates to run in.

In the last five La Liga matches, Madrid have won only three games, sensationally losing to Getafe (0:1) and Mallorca (1:2). They defeated Celta Vigo (2:1), defeated Elche (4:1) and with great difficulty prevailed in the derby against Atletico (3:2). At a press conference before the first match of the 1/4 final of the Champions League against Bayern Munich, Arbeola said that the team is fully ready to play, despite the recent defeat in the championship.

The coach paid special attention to the condition of Kylian Mbappe and Judd Bellingham. Arbeola said that Mbappe is in perfect condition for such matches and such playoff rounds: the coach is confident that the Frenchman will show his best level and lead the team.

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Match scenario, game forecast

An important factor in the confrontation between the Spanish and German teams is Kane's readiness for the match. Vincent Kompany announced at a press conference that Harry Kane is out due to injury, and Nicholas Jackson will miss the game due to suspension. The absence of both forwards creates serious tactical difficulties, but Kompany confirmed the readiness of Alfonso Davis and Jamal Musiala. Based on this, the head coach of Bayern Munich can put Gnabry at the forefront of the attack, Lennart Karl will be placed in the top ten position, and Luis Diaz and Michael Olice will traditionally occupy the flanks.

Kompany also stated that he is ready to play with two strikers against Real Madrid. He stressed that these positions are "very, very flexible" and Karl, along with Gnabry, can drop lower and oversaturate the center of midfield for greater control.

In the positional attack, Munich will use their usual 3-3-4 structure at the initial stage: one of the defensive midfielders drops between the central defenders, creating a line of three players in the first stage, and both laterals go into the central zones, providing a numerical advantage in the middle of the field. The key factor is constant positional rotations, which undermine the opponent's defense and create holes in the semi—flanks.

Harry Kane may pose a particular threat to Real Madrid with his constant descent into the depths: if the central defenders of Madrid follow him every time, space will open behind them for attacking partners to run in, therefore, the Englishman's guardianship requires clear team interactions and the transfer of custody between the players.

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An important weapon of the Company is radical personal pressure. Bayern took this idea to the absolute, which was brilliantly demonstrated in the away match against PSG, where Munich provoked 14 losses of the ball in the opponent's half of the field in the first 30 minutes, and the central defender Upamecano followed the defender almost to someone else's penalty area. Sometimes Kompany goes even further, as in the game against Borussia, insisting on personal pressure from all players, including the goalkeeper.

However, such pressure has its drawbacks: a high line and intense personal pressure leave huge spaces behind, and the price of any mistake is prohibitive. As soon as an opponent finds a way out from under pressure, strength turns into fatal vulnerability.

This is precisely Arbeloa's main task before this confrontation — he needs to answer two key questions.: how to reduce the quality and speed of Bayern's ball movement in order to reduce their attacking potential, and how to get out from under personal pressure in order to regularly punish the opponent in quick attacks.

To overcome the pressure of Bayern, Real Madrid needs to play through long passes, bypassing the first line of pressure, while the key figure in this scenario is the player who will pull the central defenders of Munich onto himself: one of the attackers must constantly sink into the depths, taking both Upamecano with him. This opens up space behind their backs for their partners to jerk, and the main question here is how ready Kylian Mbappe is for such a job.

When playing from the goal, flanking orientations can be used: goalkeeper Andrei Lunin passes into the zone, where a physically powerful player like Federico Valverde wins the fight on the second floor, who drops the ball as Mbappe runs behind the defenders, and Vinicius must remain on the left flank and "glue" the second central defender to himself in order to stretch the defense.

It is also important to note that Bayern have conceded 14 goals from corners this season, and a well-played standard can not only bring a goal, but also turn the tide of the entire confrontation.

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Bayern is showing itself terrifyingly — it will be difficult for Real Madrid to pass it. Arbeloa needs an almost perfect plan, which includes preparation for the high personal pressure of Munich and clear mechanisms for getting out from under it through long passes, positional rotations and competent work on standards.

The Munich players enter this confrontation as favorites, but for Real Madrid such a status disparity has rarely mattered. The first match of this confrontation will be held on the field of the Santiago Bernabeu stadium on April 7 at 22:00 Moscow time.

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