Grim alliance: EU intends to deprive Hungary of the right to vote if Orban wins
The European Union is preparing a plan to deprive Hungary of the right to vote in the EU Council if current Prime Minister Viktor Orban wins the parliamentary elections in the country on April 12. This was stated to Izvestia by the head of the Ukraine–EU Parliamentary Cooperation Committee in the European Parliament, Pekka Tovery. According to him, in this case, the EU will be able to approve a loan to Kiev for €90 billion, which Budapest is currently blocking. Experts consider the scenario of depriving Hungary of the right to vote unlikely due to the complex procedure and the risk of dissatisfaction from other countries. Meanwhile, US Vice President Jay Dee Vance will arrive in Budapest on April 7 to support Viktor Orban at the last stage of the election race.
The EU's plan for Viktor Orban's successful campaign
There are six days left until the end of the election campaign in Hungary, and the pressure on Budapest continues to increase. The elections to the Hungarian parliament have attracted special attention from Brussels, due to the fact that the current government of Viktor Orban is blocking the 20th package of sanctions against Russia and a loan to Ukraine worth €90 billion.
The European Union plans to deprive Hungary of the right to vote in the EU Council if Viktor Orban's party wins the elections, the head of the Ukraine–EU parliamentary cooperation committee in the European Parliament, Pekka Tovery, told Izvestia.
— Now a plan is being created in case Orban steals the election victory. Most likely, Hungary's voting rights will be revoked so that the loan can be approved. I don't have an exact time frame, but it's likely to happen very soon after the election," Tovery said.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
On March 31, the head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, visited Kiev, where she said that she had "no good news about the allocation of a loan" for Ukraine for €90 billion. She stressed that the European Commission hopes for the approval of this decision at the next meeting of the European Council. "Ms. Kaya Kallas said very diplomatically that we have one obstacle. That's what I'll call this obstacle — Hungary," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga said at the time.
Kiev has increased pressure on Budapest in recent months. Back in January, Ukraine stopped supplying oil to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline, and now the authorities in Budapest have accused Kiev of attempting to undermine the Turkish Stream in Serbia. Earlier, the President of this country, Alexander Vucic, announced the discovery of two backpacks and a package of explosives with detonators a few hundred meters from the gas pipeline.
After that, Hungary, Russia, Turkey and Serbia agreed to strengthen the protection of the Turkish Stream from possible attacks from Ukraine, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said. According to him, it is planned to involve the Hungarian Armed Forces in the protection of the pipeline. Ukraine categorically denies its involvement in the attempted sabotage and declares that it was an operation "under a false flag."
How does the procedure for disenfranchisement in the EU work?
The suspension of the voting rights of an EU country is provided for in article 7 of the Treaty on European Union. Such an initiative should be put forward by one third of the EU states, the majority of the deputies of the European Parliament (480) or the European Commission. All three options are available: the European Commission does not hide its dissatisfaction with Viktor Orban's government, and a third of EU members can be recruited from the Scandinavian, Benelux and Baltic countries. Groups of deputies in the European Parliament have also previously proposed to deprive Budapest of the opportunity to block the union's decisions.
To launch the procedure, a "clear threat of a serious violation of the EU values of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law" is required. Back in May 2025, 17 EU countries accused Hungary of this because of the adoption of laws against LGBT people (the movement was recognized as extremist and banned in the territory of the Russian Federation). Budapest may also be accused of electoral irregularities, especially if the results are very different from the pro-European opinion polls.
Next, the consent of four-fifths of the EU Council members is required, with the exception of the state against which sanctions are being applied. In other words, we need to get the consent of 21 EU countries. In addition, the consent of two thirds of the European Parliament — 480 deputies - is required. Formally, the sanction is imposed for an indefinite period. The EU Council may at any time review its decision by a qualified majority vote if the situation in the country changes.
Although Article 7 of the EU treaty is limited only to the EU Council, such an important decision as depriving one of the countries of the right to vote must be approved by the heads of state and government of the association, Egor Sergeev, senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.
"The final decision of the European Council, which directly leads to the imposition of sanctions and the deprivation of the right to vote, should be adopted unanimously, which is extremely unlikely," the expert stressed.
The countries of the Baltic States and Scandinavia, as well as Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, are ardent supporters of sanctions against Budapest. However, the involvement of Berlin and Paris is much more dangerous — they have the resources to convince wavering countries to support restrictions against Hungary.
Which countries can support Hungary
Budapest is likely to be supported by Slovakia, whose authorities are also unhappy with the EU's sanctions policy towards Russia. Bratislava suffered from the blocking of the Druzhba oil pipeline and imposed retaliatory measures against Kiev. But Brussels also has a means of pressure — the EC may suspend European financing for Slovakia. Last year, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz spoke directly about this.
The Czech Republic may also support Hungary after the government of Andrei Babis came to power last year. Prague, in particular, refused to participate in financing a loan for Ukraine. However, Babish's position may be shaken by the large-scale protests that took place at the end of March. It is also important to take into account that Czech President Petr Pavel takes a more pro-Ukrainian position and is unlikely to support the defense of Hungary.
Theoretically, Italy, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, can side with Viktor Orban. According to media reports, she previously said that she understands Hungary's position on the issue of a loan to Ukraine. At the same time, Meloni's Brothers of Italy party is in a coalition with other parties, so the prime minister will need their consent. In addition, the Italian prime minister is unlikely to risk a confrontation with Brussels after the recent defeat in the referendum on judicial reform.
Previously, Orban's ally was Poland, which was also deprived of funds from euro funds and ordered to pay a fine. However, in 2023, the election was won by the coalition led by Donald Tusk, which is more critical of Hungary. In particular, the Polish prime minister openly accuses Viktor Orban of helping Russia. At the same time, the Hungarian Prime Minister is supported by Polish President Karol Nawrocki. But he still has less authority in this area than the head of government.
Mikhail Vedernikov, a leading researcher at the Central and Eastern European Studies Department of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the EU's decision to deprive Hungary of the right to vote would provoke resistance, as it would pave the way for punishing the most "intractable" members of the union in the future.
"It is more likely that the European Union will develop an additional mechanism for financing Kiev through the member states of the association or, for example, will return to discussing the prospects for using Russian assets located in the EU," the expert noted.
Recently, the Union has been increasingly discussing policies to limit the rights of nation-States on various issues. Hungary is only the most striking case, and if Brussels wins, it will be able to accelerate the process of rejecting the veto of nation states, Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, told Izvestia.
Who is leading in the election race in Hungary
In Hungary, meanwhile, the election campaign for the parliamentary elections is coming to an end. It is extremely difficult to determine a favorite. A poll by the opposition Publicus center showed that Viktor Orban's Fidesz party was supported by 40% of respondents, while the Tisa movement was supported by 49%. On the contrary, the pro-government service Alapjogokert Központ stated that the number of Fidesz supporters exceeded 50%.
The fact that the outcome of the race is not at all a foregone conclusion is also indicated by the assistance to Viktor Orban from the administration of Donald Trump. U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance will visit Hungary on April 7-8. He will become the highest–ranking American guest in the country since the visit of President George W. Bush in June 2006, writes Politico. In February, the head of the State Department, Marco Rubio, visited Budapest. Then the US Secretary of State and Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto signed an agreement on cooperation in the nuclear industry.
According to Mikhail Vedernikov, Peter Magyar and his Tisa party became the favorite of the election race. He believes that Viktor Orban is unlikely to be able to overcome the gap and build support over the next week. The voter is guided by the domestic political and economic situation, which has stagnated in recent years.
"There are great doubts that in recent days the average Hungarian will be able to believe in Orban again," the political scientist noted.
Vladimir Shapovalov, on the contrary, considers the victory of the Fidesz party more likely. It is important to take into account that of the 199 deputies of the Hungarian Parliament, only 93 are elected on party lists. The rest are elected in single-member constituencies in which Viktor Orban's party has traditionally been strong. For example, in 2018, Fidesz candidates won in 91 districts, and in 2022 — in 87.
If none of the parties can get an absolute majority in parliament, a third force will play a decisive role — the Nasha Rodina party, which is supported by 5 to 8% of respondents. Ideologically, this political force is close to the Fidesz party, so it will be easier for Viktor Orban to form a coalition with Our Motherland and retain his post.
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