The dead pilots: how the US rescue mission could affect the Iranian campaign
The US operation to rescue American pilots may determine the future of the Iranian war, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. If it turns out that the authorities are covering up some of the losses and damage, Donald Trump will be under a barrage of criticism, and he will have to look for an expeditious way out of the conflict. Earlier, the head of the White House confirmed the rescue of two pilots of the F-15E aircraft shot down in the skies over Iran. At the same time, the United States, according to American media, lost at least two transport aircraft. Iran claims that two Black Hawk helicopters were shot down during the mission. About how the price of war is rising for the United States and whether a diplomatic settlement is possible — in the Izvestia article.
Rescue operation
The American-Israeli adventure in Iran, which has crossed the 30-day mark, is actively inflaming. The main event of recent days has been the first truly large-scale rescue operation for US military personnel. On April 5, President Donald Trump posted on social media about the evacuation from Iran to Kuwait of the pilots of the F-15E aircraft shot down on April 3. The names of the pilots were not disclosed. It is only known that one of them is a pilot, and the other is a weapons systems officer with the rank of colonel.
The American leader actually admitted that "one of the most daring" rescue operations in the history of the United States came at a considerable price. According to Trump, the United States deployed "dozens of planes" to get the two soldiers out. The first pilot was found almost immediately, while the second had to be searched for more than a day. "The second raid followed the first, during which we rescued the pilot in broad daylight, which was also unusual. We spent seven hours over Iran," Trump said.
At the same time, as CBS reported, the mission encountered serious difficulties even at the first stage: two MC-130J transport planes that flew after the second pilot could not take off, and so that they would not get to the Iranians, the US military command decided to blow them up from the air and send three more transporters to the operation zone instead.. "American officials did not explain exactly how the planes had problems," the Wall Street Journal article says. However, journalists emphasize that the cost of each of them exceeds $ 100 million.
Footage of scattered smoking fragments of transporters was published by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). A photo of the remains of the sides was posted on social networks by the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with whom, as Trump had previously claimed, the Americans were negotiating. "If the United States achieves three more such "victories," they will be completely destroyed," Ghalibaf said.
The downed F-15E Strike Eagle is the first known loss of an aircraft over Iranian territory since the start of the war on February 28. In total, according to CNN, the United States lost seven military aircraft in the Iranian campaign. However, this information is only available according to major American media and the Pentagon — the real losses may be greater. Thus, the Iranian state Television and radio company IRIB claimed that during the rescue operation, air defense systems shot down at least two more Black Hawk helicopters. If larger losses are confirmed, this will increase pressure on Trump, and he will have to look for an expeditious way out of the conflict, says Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club.
— Any loss of personnel, of course, will play against Trump and against the continuation of the campaign. Especially considering that now, apparently, the possibility of launching a ground operation is still being discussed," he told Izvestia. — If the losses are confirmed and this is reported, especially in the American media, then this may be another argument in favor of not conducting such a ground operation.
There are separate and independent reports that the Pentagon is significantly underestimating the death toll of American servicemen, said Khan, a professor at Wayne University in Detroit, told Izvestia.
"It is usually deception, rather than the actual number of victims, that can force the American public to demand an end to the war, although it is doubtful that Trump will follow public opinion,— he added.
By the way, on April 5, it became known that Planet Labs, a satellite technology company, would suspend the publication of footage taken during the war with Iran. According to Reuters, the U.S. government has asked all satellite image providers not to show images of the conflict zone.
Growing discontent in the United States
Meanwhile, the protracted campaign in Iran is increasingly losing the credibility of American society. According to the average data from RealClearPolitics, the level of dissatisfaction with Donald Trump's work has exceeded 56%. For the current president, this is an alarming anti—record - the highest rate of negative perception since his return to the White House.
"For Trump, perhaps the most important factor in deciding whether to end the war will be public opinion and dissatisfaction with the economic consequences for everyday life,— said Khan. — As gasoline prices continue to rise and [high] inflation may return, the risks in the upcoming midterm elections may become a decisive argument for Trump and the Republicans regarding further US involvement in the conflict.
The average retail price of gasoline in the United States rose to $4 per gallon (3.8 liters), an increase of about 30% over the month. According to the Iran War Cost Tracker portal, the United States spent more than $27 billion in the war with Iran in March. At the same time, Washington will need even more funds to continue the campaign.
— The budget adopted for 2026 was not designed to carry out such large-scale military operations. Therefore, the United States will not be able to wage this war for a long time. They will either need to wind it down somehow, or ask Congress for additional funding for military spending. But given that such military actions are clearly not popular with the American public, Congress most likely will not provide additional funding to the administration," Pavel Zakharov, a leading RISI expert, told Izvestia.
Prospects for negotiations
In an interview with Fox News, Donald Trump again outlined the deadline for concluding a deal with Iran — April 6. It is noteworthy that it is on this day that the unilateral refusal of the United States to strike Iranian energy facilities ends. Later, Trump pushed the deadline to April 7, at 20:00 Eastern time. The American president said that the United States would take away Iranian oil if Tehran did not want to conclude an agreement.
Washington demands that it limit the number of ballistic missiles, dismantle all nuclear facilities and nuclear test sites, abandon support for regional proxy groups, and ensure free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. As for Tehran, among its conditions for ending the conflict are compensation for damage, guarantees that the war against the Islamic Republic will not happen again, and international recognition of Tehran's authority over Hormuz.
The prospects for a political solution to the crisis will depend on how far the parties are willing to move away from their maximalist demands, Andrei Kortunov believes. Right now, this is not visible. Also, the key reason why Iran refuses to negotiate is the lack of guarantee mechanisms, says orientalist Leonid Tsukanov.
—Washington has already used negotiations several times as a cover for preparing strike operations, and Tehran does not want to repeat previous mistakes," he told Izvestia. — In addition, the Israeli factor is also interfering in the process. West Jerusalem acts on its own, and ending the conflict with the United States will not be the same as reducing tension in the region as a whole.
Earlier, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the Israeli military had attacked Iranian steel and petrochemical enterprises and planned to strike them further. At the same time, the countries of the region are trying to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict. At the end of March, high-level talks were held in Islamabad between the foreign ministers of Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
Islamabad has approached the status of a key intermediary more than others, but its activity is largely offset by the lack of guarantee mechanisms, Leonid Tsukanov noted. No matter how effective the proposed options for resolving the crisis may be, without clear legitimization and compliance with their framework by the United States, they are, in fact, unviable, the orientalist believes.
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