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- Challenge to battle: the UN Security Council will consider a resolution on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz
Challenge to battle: the UN Security Council will consider a resolution on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz
Members of the UN Security Council will consider a draft resolution on the protection of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked since the beginning of the war between the United States and Israel with Iran. The document, which was prepared by Bahrain, proposes to allow the use of force to ensure navigation. The initiative is actively supported by the UAE, which, according to the American media, offers Washington and its allies to form a coalition, and also insists on conducting a military operation. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Made edits
"Countries acting independently or through voluntary multinational naval coalitions are authorized to use all necessary means, commensurate with the circumstances, in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to ensure passage and prevent interference in international navigation, including within or near territorial waters," the draft resolution says. initiated by Bahrain.
In addition, the document calls on interested states to coordinate defensive actions, including escorting merchant ships.
Before submitting a draft resolution on the protection of commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz to the UN Security Council, Bahrain revised the previous wording. Initially, the state, in its initiative, which was supported by the United States and the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, referred to Chapter VII of the UN Charter ("Actions against threats to peace, violations of peace and acts of aggression"). According to it, the Security Council can impose various measures against countries, ranging from sanctions to the use of military force.
In the current version, there is no explicit mention of the mandatory implementation of these measures and no reference to chapter VII (although the associated wording has been retained). Instead, Bahrain is calling for the use of "all necessary means" to ensure navigation.
In the original version, the adoption of the resolution, according to the Reuters news agency, would have been unlikely, since "Iran's partners — Russia and China — would have vetoed it."
The UN Security Council resolution requires at least nine votes in favor and no veto from the five permanent members: Russia, China, the United States, Britain and France.
Consideration of the draft resolution is scheduled for April 2, but it is not yet clear whether it will be approved not only by the Russian Federation and China, but also by other permanent members of the Security Council. For example, President Emmanuel Macron has already stated that forcibly opening the Strait of Hormuz is unrealistic.
"It was never an option that we chose. This would expose everyone who crosses the strait to threats from the coast from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has the appropriate capabilities, as well as the risk of ballistic missile strikes," he stressed.
The French leader called for the resumption of negotiations and a return to peace and stability, and also covertly criticized American leader Donald Trump for the fact that there has been "too much talk" lately and "the opposite of what was said the day before" appears every day.
Things are not going well for Bahrain
However, things were going badly for Bahrain even before the outbreak of the Gulf War, Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, recalls in an interview with Izvestia.
— The kingdom's public debt has exceeded 130% of GDP, which is the highest among all the countries of the Persian Gulf. In addition, Manama constantly has a high level of budget deficit. In 2024-2025, the figure was about 11% of GDP annually. According to the plan, this year it was supposed to decrease to 9.2% of GDP, but given the current conditions, it is difficult to believe in the realism of this figure," the political scientist believes.
According to him, the disappointing picture is complemented by the critical dependence of the kingdom's economy on sales of petroleum products, which provide about 60% of export earnings.
— In total, "hydrocarbon" revenues account for about 70% of the country's government revenues, and the oil industry generates up to 19% of GDP. The kingdom is located on an island, all petroleum products are exported by sea. He does not have any logistical opportunities to diversify supplies, therefore, as long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Manama will incur losses and inflate the already high level of government debt," the expert explains.
The Emirates wanted a coalition
Bahrain's proposal for a forceful solution to the problem of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, however, also has supporters. The United Arab Emirates is actively lobbying for the adoption of a document to obtain a UN Security Council mandate for a military operation, according to American media.
Earlier, The Wall Street Journal, citing Arab officials, reported that Abu Dhabi was going to help Washington and other allies "open the Strait of Hormuz." In particular, local diplomats suggest that the American authorities, together with European and Asian countries, form a coalition. With its help, the UAE wants to occupy Abu Musa and the Iranian-controlled islands of Greater and Lesser Tunb, which are claimed by the Emirates.
Abu Musa Island, Iran
These territories are of strategic importance. In addition, there are hydrocarbon deposits in the Abu Musa area. Tehran insists that they historically belonged to Iran and only came under British control in 1903. The authorities of the Islamic Republic also emphasize that they managed to regain control of the islands shortly before the creation of the UAE.
Not a little, but not enough
After recent reports of serious losses of the Iranian naval forces, the Emirati Navy has become known as one of the most powerful structures in the Persian Gulf. They include over a dozen corvettes of various types, as well as missile, patrol and amphibious boats.
The UAE ground forces consist of nine brigades, armed with about 400 French Leclerc tanks, about 400 Russian BMP-3 and other armored vehicles. About 80 F-16 fighters of various types and about 70 French Dassault Mirage fighters serve in the Air Force. In total, the country's armed forces number about 65,000 personnel.
The UAE's military power is common for a regional power and it is not enough for the current military and political situation in the Strait of Hormuz, said Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS.
— The Emirates has several frigates, amphibious assault ships, a number of coast guard vessels, perhaps even something larger. They also have modern aircraft, even marines, and the army consists of nine brigades of ground forces. This is a sufficient contingent to provide defense in regional conditions," the political scientist believes.
But the Emirati fleet is called the most significant in the region only because the Iranian one was destroyed, the expert emphasizes. At the same time, there is currently no information about where the Iranian submarines are located.
— There was no information about the sinking of any of them yet, and they have a fairly large stock of submarines — 25 submarines. Iran is the third most powerful military power in the Middle East after Turkey and Israel. The rest of the Arab world has mainly land units in the Middle East," the specialist clarifies.
He draws particular attention to the fact that Iran has not yet attacked Emirati military installations and infrastructure, attacking only what relates to the United States.
— Are the Emirates aware of the seriousness and are they ready to face the loss of personnel on their land, the destruction of infrastructure, the loss of equipment, the loss of expensive ships? — the analyst wonders.
The destroyed Iranian fleet is only an obstacle for Tehran, which will prevent it from actively operating in the sea and imposing its conditions, for example, threatening the Diego Garcia military base or blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the Izvestia interlocutor adds. But the country's armed forces still have unmanned vessels, drones, and anti-ship missiles. They may also still have aircraft that can strike.
The question of who will ensure freedom of navigation, as it is claimed, and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz remains open, Krylov draws attention.
— Let me remind you that Iran has partially mined this very strait. The Emirates does not have minesweepers, European countries refused to send any forces to the Strait of Hormuz at all with the phrase that "this is your problem, sort it out somehow yourself," the political scientist notes.
In such a situation, not only the UAE should abandon a military solution to the problem, but it also makes sense for the United States to step back and admit its guilt, he is convinced.
— Because after that, Trump can be impeached for such things. Everyone claims to have won, but in fact we just have a frozen status quo. And Iran suffered losses. But the Americans' losses are both financial and reputational," the expert points out.
A blow to the Saudis
In addition to the UAE, according to a number of reports, Saudi Arabia, which has faced economic problems during the conflict in the Middle East, is also in favor of bringing the war to a logical conclusion. Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya recalls this, adding that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp drop in oil export revenues for the kingdom.
"The kingdom's authorities were able to diversify supply routes thanks to the East—West oil pipeline and the Yanbu port, but this only allowed them to reduce the damage, rather than fully compensate for it," the expert says.
He cites data from Bloomberg, according to which Saudi Arabia's oil exports fell by about half in March. And the fact that Saudi oil companies cannot take advantage of record high energy prices also has a negative impact on the kingdom's balance of payments, the political scientist said.
— Due to financial problems, expenses are already being reviewed, including for the most high-profile projects. Even NEOM, overseen by Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, went under the knife. The operation, which was probably supposed to last a maximum of several days, was delayed, and significant losses due to the conflict are borne not only by its direct participants," the analyst summarizes.
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