A grateful soil: Russia can increase supplies to Latin America

Russia may increase fertilizer supplies to Latin America. In particular, we are talking about Argentina, Mexico and Colombia, Russian and foreign diplomats told Izvestia. Earlier, in an attempt to protect the domestic market, China restricted exports due to the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But an agrarian crisis is now possible in Latin America. Experts believe that due to demand from this region, the Russian fertilizer market will not only be able to increase revenue, but also double. Experts consider Russian restrictions on the export of ammonium nitrate and mineral fertilizers to be only a temporary obstacle. Only the regional ambitions of the United States can become a problem.

To which countries will the Russian Federation be able to increase fertilizer exports

Beijing has made a decision regarding nitrogen-potash fertilizers and certain types of phosphates. Fertilizers with a volume of about 40 million tons were banned from export. The restrictions were supplemented by quotas for urea, effective from 2021. Thus, China keeps domestic prices down, trying to prevent shortages within the country.

The alarm has already started sounding in Latin America. Brazil's agriculture minister fears a shortage of fertilizers, as well as rising prices for them. In Paraguay, the agricultural sector sees a risk for future planting campaigns. Problems may start in Argentina, Mexico and Colombia, where China supplied fertilizers worth over $482 million in 2024.

China is the second largest exporter of fertilizers in the world after Russia. For example, Argentina is interested in increasing imports, the republic's ambassador to the Russian Federation, Enrique Ignacio Ferrer Vieira, told Izvestia.

"Last year, according to Argentine statistics, our total imports from Russia increased by about 190% compared to 2024, and this is largely due to an increase in purchases of Russian fertilizers," the ambassador noted. — Therefore, it is logical to assume that in the current conditions our farmers will continue to purchase fertilizers from this source — in the same volumes or even in large quantities.

The demand for Russian products in Argentina is associated with a long period of drought, the expansion of crops and relatively low prices, Russian Ambassador to the republic Dmitry Feoktistov told Izvestia.

"Argentines are in great demand for domestic complex and nitrogen agrochemicals," the diplomat added. — We hope that the positive dynamics will strengthen this year.

Russia is also discussing the growth of fertilizer supplies with Mexico.

"The Russian side is in constant dialogue with Mexican relevant departments and business circles," our embassy in the republic emphasized. — Within the framework of this interaction, various aspects of bilateral cooperation are being discussed, including the potential expansion of supplies of products from the agrochemical sector. At the same time, we are not talking about one-time measures, but about building stable and predictable channels of interaction.

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Russia can supply products via the Interoceanic Corridor on the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, which will connect the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans in 2026. It will be an alternative to the Panama Canal.

"We consider it as a promising element of international logistics, which in the future may contribute to the diversification of supply routes, including agricultural products," the Russian Embassy in Mexico added.

Moscow may increase supplies to Colombia as well.

"Russia has been the main supplier of fertilizers to the local market for many years," the diplomats stressed. — We hope that, if necessary, if the Colombian partners indicate a corresponding interest, domestic companies will be able to increase supplies and meet the growing demand for this category of goods.

In 2024, exports of mineral fertilizers from Russia to Latin America reached 42 million tons. In 2026, it was planned to supply 46 million tons, but taking into account China's restrictions, it may be higher. According to open sources, in 2024, Russia shipped a total of more than $839 million worth of agrochemical products to Argentina, Colombia and Mexico.

Supply potential to Latin America

Latin America needs fertilizers badly because there is a lot of commercial crop production there. The lion's share (about 88%) goes to soybeans, sugar cane, legumes, coffee, rice, vegetables and fruits. For Argentina, the key consumers are corn, wheat and soybeans, for Mexico corn and beans are important, for Colombia coffee, rice, corn, palm oil and bananas are important.

Urea is needed for grain and corn yields. Nitrogen-potassium mixtures are necessary where it is important to support the growth and filling of fruits and grains. This is especially important for corn, vegetables, fruits, coffee, and bananas. Phosphate fertilizers are needed for roots, early development, flowering and crop formation. The three main nutrients — nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium — account for most of the demand for mineral fertilizers. And Russia has them.

Russia's position in the global fertilizer market looks stronger than in the oil and gas market, Evgeny Sumarokov, Candidate of Economics, told Izvestia. According to him, Russia accounts for 23% of ammonia exports, 14% of urea and, together with Belarus, 40% of potash fertilizers.

According to various estimates, the total export growth of these products from Russia in 2026 may amount to 45-47 million tons, with an emphasis on friendly markets, including Latin America, which has already become a key supplier of fertilizers from the Russian Federation, said Dmitry Baranov, a leading expert at Finam Management Management Company. According to him, the Russian agrochemistry market could double by 2032, with Latin America as the driver of demand.

The Russian Federation is becoming a key guarantor of the region's food security, added Peter Sukhorukh, founder of the international digital reputation agency Invisibility. For Argentina, Mexico and Colombia, whose economies are critically dependent on the agricultural sector, Russian fertilizers are the only way to avoid food shortages, the expert is convinced.

The volume of agrochemistry supplies to Latin America may grow by up to 15% compared to 2025, and the revenue of domestic exporters may increase in about the same way, said Mikhail Khachaturian, associate professor at the Department of Strategic and Innovative Development at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Peter Sukhorukikh predicts a 15-18% increase in foreign exchange earnings.

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How will this affect business and the speed of cargo passage?

Russia currently has restrictions on the export of ammonium nitrate and other mineral fertilizers until May 31, inclusive. The total volume of the export quota is about 18.7 million tons.

"If the restrictions are of a long—term nature, this may limit Russia's ability to fully meet the increased demand in Latin America," said Sergey Tolkachev, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. — If the restrictions are aimed at stabilizing the domestic market of the Russian Federation, and they are temporary, this may strengthen the negotiating positions of Russian companies, since, knowing about the shortage, they can count on more favorable export conditions.

Experts consider logistics and its political aspect to be the main risk. According to Khachaturian, most of the supplies to the region pass by sea, and the United States is striving to maximize its position in the Western Hemisphere by squeezing out competitors, secondary sanctions, as well as restrictions on cargo insurance and ship maintenance, the analyst concluded.