Stock tick: how can the connection become more expensive in the case of the introduction of fees for VPN traffic

Mobile operators have not yet confirmed plans to introduce charges for international traffic and have not named possible pricing conditions. The big four companies did not comment on the topic in response to requests from Izvestia. Experts agreed that if this initiative is implemented, mobile payments in the Russian Federation will increase. The price increase can be moderate — up to 250 rubles per month at special rates, or more significant if the measure is defensive in nature. It is also possible that starting from April 1, iPhone owners will not be able to replenish their Apple ID balance from their mobile account. According to market participants, this measure is part of the same package of measures to combat VPNs. At the same time, it will make it more difficult for users to access useful and important resources, such as health monitoring applications. How much can mobile Internet become more expensive, and how to minimize the problems associated with initiatives, is described in the Izvestia article.

How much will mobile Internet become more expensive

The Big Four mobile operators did not disclose details of plans to introduce additional fees for international Internet traffic as part of the fight against VPN use - they did not respond to relevant requests from Izvestia. According to two sources of Izvestia, at a meeting in the Ministry of Finance on March 28, operators were offered to introduce billing for international mobile traffic exceeding 15 GB per month. The measure is supposed to be implemented before May 1.

The question remains whether we are talking about VPN traffic, or all traffic coming from abroad. The second option is more realistic, says Sergey Polovnikov, head of the Content-Review project.

"Separately isolating and segregating VPN traffic is technically an extremely difficult task that will require huge resources," he explained.

It depends on whether only VPN or all traffic is charged, and what proportion of mobile operator customers it will affect. According to Sergey Polovnikov, it is very difficult to estimate the VPN user base in the Russian Federation, but it can be assumed that 20-30% of mobile Internet users use one way or another to circumvent blocking. At the same time, almost every subscriber uses any international traffic (for example, through watching videos on TikTok and other resources).

15 GB is a fairly large amount of traffic: now users consume 25-30 GB per month, and often a significant part of it is on the Runet, Konstantin Ankilov, CEO of TMT Consulting, told Izvestia. Therefore, the initiative to introduce charges for international traffic, if implemented, will not affect many subscribers, he believes.

— At the same time, many subscribers are much more active — operators offer tariffs with tens of gigabytes or unlimited. Some of these users watch videos from foreign resources, which generates large amounts of traffic. If this initiative is implemented by the operators, then everything will depend on the cost of additional gigabytes. If we are talking about a high cost, for example, 100 rubles per gigabyte, then this can multiply the costs for such subscribers," said Konstantin Ankilov.

Free 15 GB when using not only messengers, but also watching videos, for example, on YouTube or TikTok, will last for about half a month, you will need to pay for the rest, said Vladimir Zykov, editor-in-chief of the IT publication Runet. According to his estimates, with the consumption of about the same 15 GB per month for a fee, the monthly payment of such a cellular subscriber (ARPU) can grow by about 1.5 times — from 450-500 rubles to 750 rubles.

He explained that now all international traffic is purchased by operators on special exchanges. Its use is already included in the existing tariffs. By introducing a separate fee for international traffic, operators will be able to sell it to the user separately. However, the cost may vary significantly.

— Based on prices on international exchanges, each gigabyte of traffic can be estimated at 50-100 rubles. But in practice, operators are unlikely to issue additional bills for 1.5 thousand rubles to subscribers. They buy traffic with huge discounts, so they will probably set sparing tariffs for the subscriber — no more than 250 rubles per 15 GB," Vladimir Zykov believes.

It will not be difficult for operators to pay for international traffic (rather than separate out the traffic of those who use VPNs), and it will also not be problematic to distinguish international from Russian, he added.

Eldar Murtazin, a leading analyst at Mobile Research Group, in turn, believes that subscriber costs may increase more if it is decided to set protective tariffs. In this case, users are likely to access the international Internet using proxy servers, he believes. The answer to this may be a narrowing of cross-border communication channels and a slowdown in access to foreign resources, the expert does not exclude.

How will the fight against VPNs affect the popularity of the iPhone

Starting from April 1, iPhone owners will probably not be able to top up their Apple ID balance from their mobile account. The recommendation to disable this option was also received by the operators of the "big four" at a meeting in the Ministry of Finance, sources told Izvestia. According to them, this can also be a method of combating the payment of VPN services. In addition, the measure is seen as a way to pressure Apple to return previously deleted Russian applications to the App Store, such as those sanctioned by Russian banks and other companies.

At the same time, Apple listens to some of the requirements of the Russian side. So, at the end of March, the applications of several VPN services disappeared from the AppStore. Telegram founder Pavel Durov criticized Apple for this decision on March 31. On his page in X (ex. Twitter), he wrote that the American company is afraid of losing the Russian market, but the policy of blocking VPN applications, in his opinion, is "a very short—term strategy."

In conditions of possible blocking of payments from mobile accounts, operators offer customers to replenish wallets in the App Store for the future. For example, Beeline sent such a notification to its subscribers: "According to a number of media reports, Apple payments from the phone account may be disabled for all operators in the near future. To keep access to subscriptions, we recommend topping up your Apple ID balance, for example, for a year" (the instructions for replenishment follow). I sent similar messages to T2 subscribers.

— Despite the fact that Apple allows (with restrictions) payment through third-party mechanisms, a number of applications, especially for content creators or various wearable, smart devices, have essentially no alternative, and it is not a fact that foreign developers will start adding alternative payment methods. A separate problem is the payment of the Apple developer program for Russian developers of iOS applications," said Karen Ghazaryan, director of the Institute for Internet Research.

The elimination of a convenient payment method in the App Store as a method of combating the use of VPNs looks strange — it harms law-abiding users of medical (for example, health tracking), educational and other applications, programs for managing smart appliances, including the smart home system, and much more, said Eldar Murtazin.

However, the payment situation in the App Store is not hopeless, Eldar Murtazin believes. Accounts can still be replenished using Apple gift cards, which are sold on the websites of operators and other online trading platforms. In addition, you can pay with foreign bank cards in the App Store. However, to do this, you need to set the country in which the payment card was issued in the iPhone settings. At the same time, there should be no funds on the account in the App Store to connect it, it must first be reset to zero.

Such changes, according to Eldar Murtazin, will also lead to another round of decline in the popularity of Apple smartphones in Russia. If by the end of 2025 the iPhone accounted for about 4.5% of smartphone sales in Russia in physical terms, then in 2026 this share may decrease to 3.5%. According to the Mobile Research Group, according to the results of last year, Xiaomi occupied the first place in sales of smartphones in the Russian Federation (about 22% of the market in units), Samsung (17%) took the second place, and Realme (15%) took the third place.

As explained in "Communication.ON", the restriction of payments through operators, if it affects iPhone sales, it is very insignificant. So far, no previously taken restrictive measures have been able to force Russian fans of Apple products to abandon their favorite gadgets, they say.

"Scammers will take advantage of the current emotional situation by offering schemes and services with "favorable conditions," so users need to be especially careful; the attackers have a rich imagination," Svyaz.ON warned.

Izvestia sent a request to Apple.

On March 30, sales of Apple gift cards on Wildberries increased by 25% in physical terms compared to March 29, while their sale was not widespread, the marketplace's press service reported.

Eliminating a convenient payment method in the App Store as a method of combating VPN usage looks illogical — users use it to pay for access to applications for education, work, and smart home appliances, said Denis Kuskov, CEO of Telecom Daily. Paying for purchases in the App Store from mobile accounts was the optimal payment method, while using or searching for other methods was a more time—consuming process, he pointed out.

The share of Russian payments in the App Store in Apple's revenue is negligible, it is unlikely that this will force the company to return Russian applications to the store, Denis Kuskov believes.