The expert estimated the risks of bitcoin's decline to $60 thousand.

In the morning, bitcoin dropped to $65,000, but with the opening of traditional markets, it rose to $67,946. At the same time, the dynamics remains unstable and is largely determined by external factors, including geopolitical signals. Alexander Baryshnikov, the manager of the Mining fund at Record Capital Management Company, told Izvestia about this on March 30.

"Today we are seeing a technical rebound in the price of bitcoin, but it is too early to call it a recovery," he said.

Baryshnikov stressed that the market is responding to contradictory statements from the United States and Iran. Simultaneous signals of negotiations and threats increase uncertainty, which is why investors tend to choose a more cautious strategy.

The expert added that the fundamental conditions are not yet conducive to the steady growth of cryptocurrencies. Among the key factors are stagflationary expectations in the US economy and the high probability of further tightening of the Fed's policy.

From a technical point of view, in order to ease the selling pressure, bitcoin needs to overcome the $69,950 level and gain a foothold above $72,000 by the middle of the week. Otherwise, the decline scenario remains in the range of $63,030–$62,510, and then to $60,000 and below.

Baryshnikov estimated the probability of bitcoin falling to $60,000 at about 80%. He named the April 6 deadline for negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as the publication of labor market data in Washington, as the key factors of the week. Strong statistics can increase pressure on risky assets, while weak indicators can temporarily support the market.

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Alexander Baryshnikov, manager of the Mining fund at Record Capital Management Company, told Izvestia on March 2 that Iran's attacks on American bases in the Middle East had increased uncertainty and put pressure on risky assets. Stock index futures lost more than 1%, and investors began actively redistributing funds into defensive instruments, including gold and oil. Bitcoin ended the week down just 2.76%.

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