Internal breakthrough: Russia introduces a complete ban on gasoline exports from April

Gasoline exports from Russia will be stopped as early as April — this decision was made at a government meeting, Izvestia learned. According to experts, this measure will help curb price increases in both the wholesale and retail segments. In addition, redirecting volumes to the domestic market is especially important due to the start of the sowing campaign, as well as the imminent start of the summer car season. About what to expect from the fuel market in the near future, see the Izvestia article.

What decisions were made in the Cabinet

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed the Ministry of Energy to prepare a draft resolution banning gasoline exports from April 1, 2026. This was announced by the government following a meeting on the situation on the domestic market of petroleum products. The measure is aimed at stabilizing prices and prioritizing fuel supply to the domestic market. The Cabinet also noted that special attention is being paid to the task set by the President of the Russian Federation — to prevent fuel prices in the country from rising above forecast values.

According to a source familiar with the discussion, the ban may last at least until the end of July.

On March 25, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stressed at the board of the Ministry of Energy that in the context of the global energy crisis, business and regulators need to take measures as soon as possible to ensure stable supply of the domestic market and maintain fuel prices at gas stations.

— She (the task. It's not easy, it's complicated, and it's very urgent," he said.

A day later, on March 26, Alexander Dyukov, the head of Gazprom Neft and chairman of the Public Council under the Ministry of Energy, said on the sidelines of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs congress that Russia needed to impose a complete ban on gasoline exports for a period of two to three months to prevent its leaching into foreign markets.

Izvestia sent a request to all major oil and gas companies and the Ministry of Energy.

Russia has a ban on gasoline exports only for non-producers until the end of July, while large oil companies are still allowed to export.

According to Izvestia, a meeting with the deputy prime minister in the government, at which it was planned to consider a ban on fuel exports in the medium term, was scheduled for March 10. Representatives of oil companies and relevant departments were invited to it. In addition, according to the agenda (available to Izvestia), the participants were supposed to discuss the mandatory volume of fuel sales at the level of 1% of production in the small wholesale segment, as well as possible changes in the parameters of the damper mechanism.

According to Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, today long-term planning issues are given a secondary role.

— The prolonged roller coaster ride of world politics is putting many national governments into manual economic management mode. Russia is no exception. The discussed restrictions on gasoline exports once again confirm the priority of national energy security over other issues, albeit very sensitive ones," the deputy believes.

What was the fuel market like on the eve of the decisions

Since the beginning of the year, stock prices for fuel in Russia have increased by about 20% on average. Thus, the cost of AI-92 gasoline increased from 54,673 to 66,940 rubles per 1 ton (+22.43%), AI-95 — from 59,003 to 70,620 rubles (+19.68%), and summer diesel — from 54,552 to 64,453 rubles per 1 ton (+17.15%), according to the trading data of the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange.

Retail prices at the same time, according to Rosstat data on March 23, increased by 2.8%, to 63.02 rubles per liter of AI-92, by 2.7%, to 68.43 rubles, and diesel fuel by 1.8%, to 77.6 rubles.

Since the beginning of the year, the VAT rate has been increased, and fuel excise taxes have increased by about 5%. Thus, the excise tax on fifth—class gasoline increased from 17,088 thousand to 17,959 thousand rubles per 1 ton, and the excise tax on diesel fuel - from 12,12 thousand to 12,738 thousand rubles.

At the same time, the most noticeable price increase occurred in the period after the outbreak of the aggravation of the situation in the Persian Gulf. Since March, AI-92 gasoline has risen in price by 12.95%, AI-95 — by 12.67%, and summer diesel — by 15.1%.

According to Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government, a psychological factor is currently playing a role.

— Large independent gas stations and industrial consumers see that the conflict in the Middle East is becoming protracted, and therefore they are afraid of further increases in oil prices and netback on petroleum products. Therefore, they are trying to buy fuel for future use, which, with a limited supply, pushes the cost up," the expert noted.

As of March 27, 2026, the export alternative index, according to NAANS-MEDIA, approached 60 thousand rubles per ton, while the average oil price in February 2026 was 23 thousand rubles per 1 ton.

Tamara Safonova, CEO of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, notes that the price of gasoline on the European market increased from $720 to $1,070 per 1 ton or by 48% from February 27 to March 27, and for diesel fuel — from $760 to $1,400 per 1 ton or by 84%..

— Unlike the synchronized increase in the cost of petroleum products following the price of oil on the world market, Russia has subsidy mechanisms, including payments of a damping component. Since there is a significant gap between the export value of petroleum products and the established domestic price in March, this mechanism will ensure reasonable prices on the domestic market against the backdrop of the growing Middle East crisis," Tamara Safonova said.

What to expect from the market next

The decision to resume the ban on fuel exports is quite natural: in recent weeks, prices for oil and petroleum products have been rising rapidly, which may provoke a "washout" of fuel from the domestic market, says Valery Andrianov from the Financial University under the government.

— Currently, there is a ban on the export of gasoline and diesel for non-producers, only those companies that have their own refineries and produce fuel can supply it abroad. But growing margins can lead to an increase in so-called grey exports. This phenomenon still exists today, but its scale is relatively small — it is estimated that up to 1.5% of diesel fuel is still sold abroad by resellers, and not by the refineries themselves. The introduction of a complete ban significantly facilitates control, closes this loophole, which otherwise could have expanded," the source believes.

He believes that the export ban will help curb price increases in both wholesale and retail sectors. In his opinion, redirecting volumes to the domestic market is especially important due to the start of the sowing campaign, which leads to an increase in demand for diesel, as well as the imminent start of the summer car season.

— The export ban has already become a traditional measure to curb price dynamics in the spring and summer period, and, most likely, this measure would have to be resorted to even if there had not been a price collapse in the global market. The situation in the domestic fuel market has not changed significantly over the past year," said Valery Andrianov.

At the same time, according to him, the level of risks associated with temporary suspensions of supplies from a number of refineries does not decrease in Russia. In order to reduce the consequences for the market and prevent fuel shortages, it is better to hold back exports.

According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, the Russian fuel market is in a winning position, despite the protracted nature of the Middle East conflict.

— The measures that the Cabinet of Ministers is taking today are rather reinsurance in nature. Despite last year's damage to domestic plants, the industry was able to cope with the challenges. In the future, retail prices will remain within the limits of inflation," Ekaterina Kosareva said.

Noting the stability of the domestic fuel market over the past four years, MP Yuriy Stankevich called for an end to "talk about reducing the role of the fuel and energy complex in our economy."

— The fuel and energy complex is not a cash cow, but a locomotive for other industries. This awareness is the key to success in the government's preparation of regulatory decisions in the field of budget, tax, investment and monetary policy," he said.

Companies in the oil industry perfectly understand the urgency of the moment, the deputy believes.