Dubai collapsed: lower prices for tours in the UAE slowed down inflation in Russia
Tours to the UAE have begun to drag down inflation in Russia. Due to the war in the Middle East, trips to Dubai have noticeably fallen in price - in some cases, prices have dropped by a third or even one and a half times. Since 2026, this area has been included in the consumer basket and directly affects the price index. According to Rosstat, from the end of February to March 23, holidays in the Emirates fell by an average of 2-3% after rising by almost 20% a month earlier. At the same time, the decline in the market is noticeably stronger: agencies sell trips with big discounts. Due to the escalation of the conflict, some tours were canceled, but sales continue, mainly for later dates. How long the downward trend in prices will continue and what impact this will have on inflation in Russia is in the Izvestia article.
How have the prices of trips to the UAE changed?
Annual inflation in February 2026 was 5.9%. In March, it began to decrease gradually: on the 16th, to 5.7%, but by the 23rd it accelerated again to 5.8%, according to data from the Ministry of Energy based on Rosstat.
Several factors contributed to the slowdown in the first half of the month: the completion of the "transfer of VAT to prices", the strengthening of the ruble and weakening demand for non-food products.
Additionally, the dynamics were influenced by a sharp decrease in the price of cucumbers after the February jump, as well as a decrease in the cost of trips to the UAE, according to the "Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends" of the CMACP (Izvestia studied it). Without taking these factors into account, the price increase could be higher.
Against this background, at a meeting on March 20, the Central Bank lowered the key rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 15% per annum, explaining the decision by slowing inflation.
The CMACP also records a stabilization of consumer demand with a noticeable decrease in interest in services. The main reason was the decline in demand for tourist trips, primarily to Israel and the UAE.
Izvestia wrote that trips to the Emirates were included in the calculation of inflation in 2026. Rosstat explained that the costs for this area have increased, so it has become indicative for assessing price dynamics.
According to the service, the cost of tours to the UAE decreased by 2-3% compared to the end of February, while in the last month of winter, the increase was about 20% compared to January, the editorial office estimated.
At the same time, official statistics do not fully reflect the real situation on the market. In the spring of 2026, tours to the Emirates have noticeably fallen in price: if in February a weekly package for two in 4-5 star hotels cost 160-190 thousand rubles, then by April it was already 95-130 thousand, that is, the decrease reaches 25-40%. "Last—minute" offers dropped to 75-90 thousand for accommodation in 3-star hotels and from 105 thousand in 5-star hotels, and discounts from large operators reach 30-40% due to weak demand and an excess of charters, Izvestia estimated.
In March, prices actually rolled back from peak values: the mass segment of tours for 7-10 nights shifted to the range of 120-170 thousand for two, and promotions and last-minute offers offered discounts of up to 20-25%, sometimes lowering the cost below the showcase levels, said Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam IC.
Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, added that in March, the cost of trips to the UAE decreased by 10-20% in Moscow and up to 50% in a number of regions. At the same time, the number of hotel bookings in Dubai decreased by about 20% compared to February.
The difference between the official data and the market situation is explained by the methodology: Rosstat takes into account the average prices for a wide range of tours, including pre-purchased trips and more expensive segments, while the market reacts pointwise — through the sale of unsold tours.
Why tours to Dubai are getting cheaper
The price decrease occurred against the background of the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran. The UAE is not directly involved, but it is already facing economic consequences due to active attacks on infrastructure.
In early March, the Ministry of Energy recommended that tour operators temporarily suspend sales of tours to the UAE and other Gulf countries. As a result, trips for March have been canceled, and tours for the end of April and May are offered with substantial discounts.
Demand for April-May is limited not so much by the unwillingness of tourists as by flight restrictions and high risks, said Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Presidential Academy. The decline in sales affected not only the UAE, but also the destinations of Southeast Asia - Maldives, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, where they flew through Middle Eastern hubs.
In addition to geopolitics, seasonality also influenced the cheaper tours, said Elena Nikolskaya, Associate Professor of the Department of Hotel and Tourism Management at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
April and May in the UAE are the beginning of the hot season: daytime temperatures reach +32...+38°C. At this time, interest in travel is traditionally decreasing. Some tourists are attracted by lower prices, but overall the flow is decreasing. At the same time, bookings become short: most buy tours two to four weeks before the trip, the expert continued. The May holidays make a small splash, but many people choose more comfortable destinations during this period — Turkey, Egypt or Sochi.
Izvestia sent requests to the Ministry of Energy and Rosstat.
When will Russians start vacationing in the UAE again
Interest in traveling to the UAE will return over time, but the timing directly depends on the situation around Iran, says Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. If the conflict subsides within 1-1.5 months, demand will start to grow in the second half of the year and may return to previous levels by early 2027. If the crisis drags on, the direction will fall out of the popular list for a long time, she added.
Yaroslav Kabakov from Finam gives a similar assessment: The market can recover within one to two months, but only if the external situation is stable - without new risks, sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate and problems with flights.
At the same time, the impact of tours on inflation remains limited. The decrease in prices in March really restrains overall inflation, but the effect will be short-term, Natalia Milchakova believes. According to her forecast, this influence will noticeably weaken in April.
Further dynamics will depend on two factors — the situation in the region and the restoration of air traffic, said Vladimir Eremkin from the Presidential Academy. If tensions decrease in the coming months, interest in travel may recover by the summer. Otherwise, tourists will switch to other destinations — Egypt, Turkey, Thailand, Vietnam or domestic resorts.
For now, consumers are taking a wait-and-see attitude: interest in travel remains, but decisions are being postponed due to uncertainty and flight restrictions, explained Inna Ryndina, commercial director of the Russian Seasons hotel group.
In general, the contribution of tourism to inflation remains episodic: it can significantly affect individual months, but does not form a long-term trend, Yaroslav Kabakov emphasized. He estimates inflation by the end of 2026, taking into account geopolitical factors, in the range of 5.5–7.5% with the risk of a shift to the upper limit.
Natalia Milchakova predicts inflation in the range of 4.5–5.5% in 2026. At the same time, achieving the target level of 4% this year is unlikely, Vladimir Eremkin believes. According to him, the figure will be 5-6% and will depend on budget expenditures and external risks, including the situation in the Middle East.
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