Transit types: Kazakhstan is interested in oil supplies to the EU via Russia
Kazakhstan is interested in extending oil transportation to Europe via Druzhba through Russian territory, Russian Ambassador to Astana Alexei Borodavkin told Izvestia. However, Ukraine's blocking of the southern branch of the pipeline creates additional risks and prevents exports from expanding. In addition, Kiev is attacking terminals in the Leningrad region and Novorossiysk, through which Kazakh raw materials pass. Experts emphasize that it is the Europeans who suffer the greatest costs from the reduction in oil supplies from Kazakhstan. The situation is exacerbated by rising resource prices and the energy crisis triggered by the fighting in the Middle East.
Where and how is Kazakh oil supplied
Kazakhstan has recently been increasing oil supplies to Europe. By the end of 2025, they increased by 7%, reaching 65.7 million tons. Astana is interested in continuing to supply it in this direction, Russian Ambassador to the republic Alexei Borodavkin told Izvestia. And the Druzhba oil pipeline remains one of the important routes for transporting fuel to the EU for Kazakhstan.
— I know for sure that Kazakhstan is interested in exporting its oil through the Druzhba oil pipeline, but due to the way the Kiev regime behaves, this is not yet possible. And when the pipeline starts working again, we are sure that our Kazakh friends will use it," he said.
The key buyer of Kazakh oil through the northern branch of Druzhba is Germany. Germany actively imports fuel for an oil refinery in the city of Schwedt — Rosneft owns a stake there through a subsidiary. By the end of 2025, oil exports to this refinery reached 2.1 million tons, and in 2026 it is expected to grow to 2.5 million. Last fall, the national company Kazmunaygas agreed with Rosneft Deutschland GmbH to extend the supply contract to Germany until the end of 2026.
However, not everything is so smooth. In February of this year, even before the escalation in the Middle East, the refinery's management warned the German authorities that US sanctions were harming its business and threatening fuel supplies to the region. It is likely that the lifting of restrictions on Russian oil has offset the risks, but only temporarily. The decision is valid until April 11, and it is difficult to predict the next step of the White House under Donald Trump.
On the question of whether it is planned to extend the possibility of supplying Kazakh oil to Germany via Druzhba for 2027, Izvestia was asked by the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan and the Embassy of the Republic in the Russian Federation.
At the same time, Kazakhstan has previously shown interest in selling fuel, in particular, to Hungary and via the southern branch of Druzhba. Last year, Astana and Budapest agreed on test deliveries. It is possible that Kazakhstan could start trial exports of a small volume, Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the Institute of National Energy and editor-in-chief of InfoTEK, told Izvestia.
However, this option is now unavailable. Oil supplies via the southern Druzhba branch have been suspended due to damage, which, according to Kiev, "takes time" to repair. Hungary and Slovakia, which received oil from the Russian Federation, demanded that Ukraine speed up the repair of the pipeline, but Vladimir Zelensky explicitly states that he is not interested in restoring the transit of Russian fuel to Europe. This became obvious last year, when the pumping of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe stopped on January 1. The contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz of Ukraine has expired, and Kiev has refused to extend it.
Damage to Kazakhstan and Europe
Ukraine is preventing the transportation of oil not only from Russia, but also from Kazakhstan. The main fuel flow (80%) goes through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). The route connects the fields of Western Kazakhstan with the Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, from where the raw materials are transported by tankers to European refineries. At the same time, CPC infrastructure and tankers have repeatedly become targets of Ukrainian drones over the past year. So, in January, at least three tankers (Matilda, Delta Harmony and Delta Supreme) chartered to transport Kazakh oil were attacked near the CPC terminal. Kiev is also hitting Russian ports in the Leningrad region, through which Kazakh raw materials also pass.
— Kazakhstan is suffering from the fact that Ukraine has recently attacked export terminals in the Leningrad region. Because Kazakhstan, even more than through the Druzhba oil pipeline, pumped oil through Russia to the Baltic ports — Ust-Luga, Primorsk — simply through the Transneft system. There he loaded them onto tankers and sold them to Northern Europe — to the north and northwest. Therefore, he will really suffer here. In total, more than 10 million tons went through Russia to Novorossiysk, Ust-Luga, and Primorsk. And it was the oil of Kazakh companies," Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia and the National Energy Security Fund, told Izvestia.
Currently, Kazakhstan covers up to 12% of the European Union's oil needs. It is the Europeans who suffer the greatest costs from reduced supplies, Alexander Frolov believes.
— The disposal of another million barrels per day primarily affects European importers, because a significant part of this oil, for example, goes to Italy. And if Italy falls short of the volumes that have already fallen, several hundred thousand barrels per day, it will probably be uncomfortable. A lot of the risks are now on the buyers," he said.
Against the background of the energy crisis in Europe provoked by the war in Iran, the British Ministry of Finance has issued a license to carry out operations for the transportation of oil from Kazakhstan through the pipelines of the Russian Transneft.
— Druzhba's operator is Transneft, and it has fallen under sanctions restrictions. But the UK came to its senses by mid-March and issued a license that allows pumping Kazakhstani oil, so there are no restrictions from this point of view," Frolov said.
As for the full-fledged work of Druzhba, Brussels has so far taken a wait-and-see attitude, Yushkov believes. Oil prices are not that high, and the collapse of the global energy market has not happened yet, which means that European officials will not put pressure on Kiev to finally resume pumping. However, the situation may worsen at any moment. The shortage of oil, including due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is still growing and is already spreading to Asia and Europe. And the escalation around Kharq Island, through which 90% of Iran's oil exports pass, could inflate world prices — up to $120-160 per barrel, according to forecasts.
Yushkov concluded: in the end, supplies via the Druzhba oil pipeline would in any case reduce the growing shortage in the European market and ease the situation in all European countries, not just Hungary or Slovakia.
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