Military bloc: Russia is trying to prevent escalation in Lebanon

Russia is trying to prevent further escalation in Lebanon, Russian Ambassador Alexander Rudakov told Izvestia. Moscow does not rule out that the war in the republic may continue after the settlement of the conflict between the United States and Israel with Iran. Meanwhile, the UN mission in Lebanon declared its readiness to facilitate direct dialogue between the armies in order to prevent the expansion of hostilities. At the same time, disagreements are intensifying inside Lebanon: According to the head of the Russian diplomatic mission, Hezbollah's difficult relations with the authorities are exacerbating the political and ethno-confessional situation in the country.

Israel has been violating agreements with Lebanon for 15 months

Despite reports of contacts between the US administration and the Iranian authorities, tensions are gradually rising in Lebanon and there is a risk of repeating the scenario of a full-scale war, similar to the events of autumn 2024.

As Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Rudakov told Izvestia, it is still difficult to talk about the prospects for resolving the war both in Lebanon and around Iran.

— I believe that the conflict should end at the negotiating table, and I sincerely hope that they will begin as soon as possible. Unfortunately, there is a possibility that the "Lebanese front" will separate from the "Iranian" one, and then everything here risks dragging on for a long time. I would like to avoid this, of course," he clarified.

The head of the diplomatic mission noted that the Russian side maintains regular contacts with local authorities and is making "diplomatic efforts to curb the scale of hostilities." According to him, most Russian citizens have already left dangerous areas.

"Even before the crisis around Iran, there was unrest here: the Israelis violated the existing ceasefire agreements almost daily for 15 months, while no threats emanated from Lebanon," the diplomat said. "We call on all Lebanese parties to act responsibly and avoid rash actions that could destroy the already fragile internal balances.

As Alexander Rudakov noted, active hostilities in the country did not begin for no reason, but became, for the most part, a consequence of the aggression of Israel and the United States against Iran.

Lebanese political analyst Ali Rizzk notes that Russia uses a range of diplomatic and practical tools to contain the escalation in Lebanon.

— Contacts with the Lebanese side are continuing, communication channels with Iran as a key ally of Hezbollah, as well as communication lines with Israel, are being maintained. Moscow has already proposed draft resolutions in the UN Security Council, where the emphasis was on ending violence in Lebanon as part of a regional settlement, the expert told Izvestia.

According to him, thanks to its connections, Russia is able to convince Tehran to restrain Hezbollah. In addition, Moscow can expand humanitarian and economic support to Lebanon, including assistance through Rossotrudnichestvo and the United Nations, as well as the restoration of trade ties.

At the same time, contradictory diplomatic dynamics remain around Iran. According to The New York Times, Tehran is considering the possibility of concluding an agreement that would provide not only for the cessation of strikes, but also legally enforceable guarantees of their non-resumption by the United States and Israel.

President Donald Trump, in turn, declared "perfect" negotiations. He said that he had ordered to refrain from attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days. However, the Chairman of the Parliament of the Republic, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, denied reports about the negotiation process.

"Even in the case of agreements between Tehran, Washington and West Jerusalem, the fighting in Lebanon will not stop, because the goals of the parties here are different: Israel is focused on destroying Hezbollah's military infrastructure, which implies a long and large—scale campaign," retired Lebanese General George Nader told Izvestia.

Orientalist Leonid Tsukanov also believes that with the settlement between Iran and the United States, the conflict in Lebanon is highly likely to persist.

"The consequences of these traumatic events will affect people for a long time"

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Hezbollah is capable of countering the Israeli army

Hezbollah's relations with the Lebanese authorities remain an additional factor of instability. As the head of the Russian diplomatic mission noted, the situation is complicated by the government's attempts to implement a policy of monopolizing armaments.

We are talking about an initiative involving the transfer of an arsenal by armed formations to the Lebanese army. In early September, the Cabinet of Ministers reviewed the plan prepared by the army, which provided for bringing this process to an end in 2025, including the disarmament of non-state structures. At the same time, the authorities are trying to build a compromise model of cooperation with Hezbollah in order to minimize the risks of internal conflict.

The Russian Ambassador notes that the Lebanese are unable to effectively implement this plan and other similar resolutions — this situation creates tension in society, adds tension both politically and ethno-confessionally.

— The military wing of the organization has tens of thousands of fighters. We see that Hezbollah is capable of conducting military operations and resisting the Israeli army in the border areas," Alexander Rudakov summed up.

Leonid Tsukanov added that Hezbollah partly plays a deterrent role for the Jewish state, preventing its general staff from implementing the geopolitical concept of a "Greater Israel."

"In the absence of deterrence, Israel could strengthen its presence in southern Lebanon according to the same scheme as in the area of the Druze Mountains in Syria," the expert added.

UN peacekeepers are ready to help in de-escalation between Lebanon and Israel

Israel is demonstrating its readiness for a long-term military presence in the south of the republic. His army intends to stay in the area south of the Litani River until, according to its estimates, the threat from Hezbollah is eliminated. This approach actually involves the expansion of the IDF-controlled buffer zone, which is considered an illegal occupation in Lebanon.

Escalation is accompanied by an exchange of blows. The Israeli army attacked infrastructure facilities, including the bridge over the Litani River and Hezbollah positions. In response, the Shiite movement launched a massive rocket launch into northern Israel, hitting Akko, Nahariya, Haifa and surrounding areas. According to Al Hadath, some of the missiles were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system.

Under these conditions, international observers have recorded a deterioration in the situation. The UN Peacekeeping Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) notes that the situation along the Blue Line remains extremely tense: peacekeepers continue to monitor violations of the ceasefire.

"We can maintain direct contact with both the Lebanese and Israeli armies to call for de—escalation, facilitating humanitarian access and preventing misunderstandings that could lead to further violence," Candice Ardiel, a representative of the peacekeepers, told Izvestia.

At the same time, the mission itself is increasingly at risk. Earlier, two soldiers of the peacekeeping contingent were injured as a result of a missile strike on the battalion's base from Ghana. Such incidents intensify the discussion about the expediency of the continued presence of foreign troops in the region.

In particular, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto allowed the possibility of reviewing the participation of Italian units in the mission. Despite the growing risks, she continues to act as an intermediary. Candice Ardiel noted that none of the countries sending troops to UNIFIL cited the recent escalation as a reason for reducing their participation.

The further development of the conflict directly depends on the willingness of the parties to find a compromise. Otherwise, the suffering of the civilian population will only increase. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, since the beginning of the escalation, more than 1,000 people have been killed and more than 2.8 thousand injured as a result of Israeli shelling in the country. International organizations estimate that 1 million people have been forced to leave their homes. The crisis also affects the most vulnerable categories, in particular, more than 11.6 thousand pregnant women.