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- Piecework offer: The United States is trying to find a way out of the protracted conflict with Iran
Piecework offer: The United States is trying to find a way out of the protracted conflict with Iran
Donald Trump is ready to announce the cessation of hostilities against Iran even without the formal consent of Tehran to the demands put forward to him. The American president is trying to get out of the protracted conflict. At the same time, the positions of the parties remain diametrically opposed: Washington insists on limiting its nuclear and missile programs, while Tehran rejects such conditions and puts forward counter-measures, including compensation and the lifting of sanctions. The current dynamics point to an attempt by the American administration to complete the escalation in the format of not a full-fledged agreement, but a "partial deal" that allows them to declare the achievement of goals.
Iran demands compensation from the United States
Tehran, with a high degree of probability, will not accept the conditions put forward by Washington, but this will not become an insurmountable obstacle to de-escalation: the United States, apparently, is ready to cease hostilities even without Iran's formal consent to key demands. US President Donald Trump will try to fix the political outcome and end the conflict, even if the final agreements turn out to be significantly milder than the initially announced ultimatums.
We are talking about a set of conditions that largely coincide with the Israeli approach: from the export of enriched uranium from Iran and the actual curtailment of the nuclear program to the freezing of missile development for at least several years and the cessation of support for regional allies. Additionally— the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the possible participation of external players in monitoring the safety of navigation are on the agenda.
At the same time, according to media reports, Israel doubts that Tehran is ready to accept such conditions, and does not understand what the optimism of the American leader is based on. They admit that Washington may agree to an interim result that allows it to declare "victory" and withdraw from the conflict, saving face.
It should be recalled that before the start of hostilities, the Americans, as part of negotiations with Iranian diplomats, insisted on an expanded agenda of the agreement. Washington's goals went beyond the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. In addition to completely abandoning uranium enrichment, the United States wanted to limit Iran's missile arsenal, end its support for allied groups in the region, and perhaps even achieve regime change in Tehran. However, as a result of the confrontation, of all this, it was possible to achieve only a strike against the missile potential of the Islamic Republic.
Orientalist Kirill Semenov emphasizes that the current situation is fundamentally different from previous negotiation tracks, including consultations mediated by Oman and meetings at other venues. According to him, Iran is no longer ready to return to the previously discussed demands and considers them as no longer relevant. On the contrary, it forms a new agenda, in which the key place is occupied by the issues of material compensation for the damage caused.
— By compensation, the Iranian side can mean a wide range of measures, from unblocking financial assets to lifting sanctions pressure. At the same time, the specific content of these requirements remains a matter of negotiation. In any case, Iran will seek more favorable terms for itself compared to previous rounds of negotiations, Kirill Semenov told Izvestia.
In his opinion, the potential formula of the agreements may include not only economic concessions, but also security elements, in particular, guarantees of non—aggression and a review of the American military presence in the region. In exchange, Tehran could theoretically accept partial restrictions on its nuclear program, but not its complete dismantling. The key question, Semenov emphasizes, is whether Washington is ready to accept such a configuration of the deal, since the prospect of reaching a compromise will depend on it.
Iran has told the United States that it is not interested in a temporary cease-fire, but in a full-fledged peace agreement with guarantees of non-resumption of attacks by the United States and Israel, the New York Times reported, citing unnamed officials in Tehran. According to the newspaper, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed these demands in a conversation with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.
This logic fits into the latest statements of Donald Trump, who is actually trying to present what is happening as an already achieved political result. The US president said that there had been a "regime change" in Iran, pointing to the emergence of new leaders with whom Washington was ready to engage in dialogue. At the same time, he announced a "significant gift" from Tehran related to the oil and gas sector, hinting at economic concessions.
Earlier, the Iranian side did offer options for economic cooperation, from joint investments in energy to purchases of American aircraft and the admission of U.S. businesses to strategic industries.
At the same time, Trump claims that Iran allegedly agreed to abandon the development of nuclear weapons, but these statements are not confirmed. Amid the ongoing uncertainty, the United States and the mediators are awaiting Tehran's response regarding possible high-level talks scheduled for March 26, Axios reports.
An additional political context is provided by the interaction of the United States with Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a telephone conversation with Donald Trump on the evening of March 23. According to him, it was a deal that would ensure the fulfillment of the objectives of the military campaign.
US President Donald Trump points to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In such a situation, the United States can choose a compromise: even if Iran does not officially agree to their demands, this will not prevent the fighting from stopping. The main thing here is not the details of a possible deal, but the willingness of the parties to simply reduce tension, even without a full—fledged agreement.
Who will act as a negotiator for Tehran
At the same time, the United States is trying to establish working channels of communication with the Iranian leadership. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is considered one of the possible negotiators from the Islamic Republic.
According to Al-Monitor, the format of contacts at the level of US Vice President Jay Dee Vance and an Iranian parliamentarian is being discussed. At the same time, Tehran officially emphasizes that there are no direct negotiations with Washington. However, such contacts, judging by the incoming information, are still underway. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is in contact with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi through the mediation of third countries. At the same time, the process itself is fragmented: several intermediaries are involved in it at once, including Egypt, Turkey, Qatar and Pakistan, which are simultaneously trying to consolidate their status as a key mediator.
Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, notes that indirect signs indicate the presence of contacts between the United States and part of the Iranian leadership. According to him, the accumulated array of leaks and details, as well as the softening of Tehran's rhetoric, indicate that certain negotiation tracks could indeed take place, albeit in an indirect format and with the mediation of third countries.
The expert, in an interview with Izvestia, drew attention to the fact that the key intrigue is not the fact of contacts themselves, but their institutional framework within the Iranian political system. If the initiative for dialogue really comes from a group of establishment representatives led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, this may indicate that there is an intra-elite request for de-escalation.
However, such a line does not necessarily reflect the consensus of all the centers of power in the country. According to Yanushevsky, the position of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which traditionally plays a key role in Iran's security and foreign policy activities, will be crucial in this regard.
Pakistan may become a platform for the next round of consultations. The possibility of holding a meeting with high-ranking representatives of the United States and Iran in Islamabad is being discussed, Axios reports. At the same time, the Pakistani leadership is already involved in diplomatic efforts: the army command and the political leadership of the country have held separate contacts with both Washington and Tehran. Turkey, in turn, is coordinating with the Arab States of the region, and Oman is consulting on unblocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the intensity of diplomatic contacts, it is too early to talk about full-fledged negotiations. Rather, it is about trying to probe the positions of the parties and prevent further escalation. The contradictory signals are also increasing at the political level. Washington claims that the initiative of the contacts came from the Iranian side, while Tehran insists on the contrary, accusing the United States of trying to manipulate markets and gain time to prepare military steps.
The Iranian authorities also point out that the statements of the American president are aimed at reducing energy prices, one of the key factors affecting the country's economic stability in the context of the conflict.
The sharp fluctuations in the energy markets have become an indirect reflection of what is happening. According to the Financial Times, shortly before Donald Trump's statement about "productive negotiations" with Iran, major oil futures transactions were made on the New York stock exchange - we are talking about thousands of contracts worth about $ 850 million, concluded in just a few minutes. After the publication of the post of the American president, in which he announced the postponement of strikes on the Iranian energy infrastructure, oil prices fell sharply, and stock indexes went up.
This dynamic has raised questions from analysts, pointing to a suspicious timing between major transactions and public statements. The White House, however, rejected any suspicion of insider information leaks, stressing that the administration's actions were dictated solely by national interests.
As the situation develops, Tehran's rhetoric becomes less categorical. The Iranian side has already acknowledged that it has received signals through friendly states that Washington is ready to discuss the cessation of hostilities. At the same time, it is emphasized that the principled positions of the Islamic Republic remain unchanged, including the approach to the Strait of Hormuz and the conditions for ending the war.
Although contacts between the United States and Iran seem to be continuing, external pressure complicates this process. According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are ready to enter the war, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is actively pushing Trump to attack Iranian infrastructure and consider military action against the regime. Such interference increases the risk of disrupting the dialogue and may incline Washington to a tougher position.
The US decision to suspend strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days does not mean a complete abandonment of hostilities. During this pause, the Israeli Air Force continued its active operations, launching a new series of strikes on Lebanese territory — the target was a network of gas stations. At the same time, the Israeli army reported large-scale strikes on production facilities in several areas of Iran. In response, Tehran attacked industrial targets in Israel, including facilities of Rafael Advanced Defense Systems in Haifa and Israel Aerospace Industries near Ben Gurion Airport. In addition, The Wall Street Journal, citing two American officials, reported that the Pentagon plans to deploy about 3,000 paratroopers in the Middle East, with a written order expected in the coming hours.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
