Those who held back power: will the failure of the referendum lead to a change of power in Italy

More than 53% of Italians voted against the judicial reform promoted by the government of the country. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has announced that she will not leave her post. However, her failure has already inspired the opposition, which expects to win a majority in the parliamentary elections in 2027. The leading opposition force, the Democratic Party, opposes dialogue with the Russian Federation and insists on continuing support for Ukraine. Experts believe that Meloni still has a chance to maintain the unity of his coalition and retain the prime minister's seat after the elections.

How did the referendum in Italy end?

Italy, which has unexpectedly gained political stability in recent years, has returned to its normal state. A constitutional referendum on judicial reform was held in the country on March 22-23, which was actively promoted by the Government of Giorgi Meloni. However, the voters rejected this proposal: 53% of the voting participants, answering the question about supporting the idea, chose the option "no".

The opposition took this as their victory and took to the streets to celebrate it: in Milan, the guerrilla song "Bella Ciao" was played, and in Bologna, demonstrators declared the beginning of the end of the "Meloni era."

— The Italians have made a decision. And we respect him. We will move forward, as always, with responsibility, determination and respect for the Italian people and for Italy," Giorgia Meloni admitted defeat.

Formally, the referendum was held on amendments to the Constitution, which concerned the judiciary. First, it was proposed to introduce a separation of career paths for judges and prosecutors: they wanted to ban the transition from one category to another. Secondly, it envisaged the creation of two separate bodies for judges and prosecutors.

However, for many, the vote turned into a vote of confidence in Giorgia Meloni and her government. The reform was opposed by the opposition Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement, as well as many trade unions and NGOs. Despite this, some polls showed the advantage of supporters of the reform. However, judging by the results, most of her opponents came to the polls.

According to polls, 31% of those who voted against the amendments did so to show their dissatisfaction with the work of the government, Maria Chiara Dommarko, senior lecturer at the Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia. At the same time, only 18% of those who voted "for" came to support the Meloni government.

"Many representatives of opposition parties, such as Carlo Calenda, supported the reform, stressing that their position had nothing to do with the assessment of the Meloni government," the expert said.

According to her, the defeat in the referendum does not mean a split in the coalition of Giorgi Meloni. Representatives of the various parties included in the association confirmed that the government continues its work, despite the result.

Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy Director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, also told Izvestia that an immediate split in the center-right camp should not be expected, but the contradictions will grow. For example, the League party demands to stop military aid to Ukraine and resume dialogue with the Russian Federation. Meloni's Brothers of Italy party and the third coalition force, Forward Italy, are now pursuing a course of continued support for Ukraine, although much less willingly than, for example, Germany, France or the United Kingdom.

The coalition is not breaking up yet, as it is not profitable for either Matteo Salvini or Antonio Tajani to go to early elections right now, when their ratings are lower than Meloni's. Unlike in 2016, when Prime Minister Matteo Renzi linked his rule to the success of the referendum, Giorgia Meloni immediately rejected the possibility of resigning. However, now her government is moving into a mode of "survival" and constant compromises with her allies.

Could Meloni lose her post

The failure of judicial reform in the referendum could give a powerful boost to the government's opponents. The Democratic Party, led by Ellie Schlein, has consolidated its role as the main mouthpiece of the opposition. Her goal now is to create a broader coalition to win the parliamentary elections in 2027.

Democrats criticize the statements of the Meloni government about the need to establish direct contacts with the Kremlin, bypassing pan-European diplomacy. The official line of the party is the continuation of military support for Ukraine as the only way to force the Russian Federation to real negotiations.

In early January, Giorgia Meloni said that the time had come for a conversation between Europe and Russia. She also proposed the creation of a post of EU special envoy on this issue. According to some media reports, she allegedly understands the position of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on blocking a loan to Ukraine of € 90 billion. The Italian prime minister was also called the "killer" of the EU's plan to confiscate Russian assets at the end of last year.

At the same time, Rome, under the leadership of the Meloni government, supports sanctions against Russia and continues to supply aid to Ukraine. Italy is also a member of the "coalition of the willing," although it declares its refusal to send its soldiers in the event of a Western contingent entering Ukraine.

Elena Alekseenkova, head of the Center for Italian Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia that the risk of a political crisis and a change of power in Italy today is low. The Democratic Party enjoys the support of approximately 21% of the vote, which means that in the event of early elections it will have to enter into a coalition with other political forces, the most powerful of which is the Five Star Movement.

— However, these two parties have been unable to come to an agreement over the past few years. The Democratic Party's coming to power, given its critical and negative attitude towards Russia and Russia's actions in Ukraine, would not have affected relations between the two countries in any way — at least for the better, for sure," the political scientist noted.

Maria Chiara Dommarco points out that Italians' trust rating towards Meloni (44%) remains much higher than that of Schlein (25%). However, survey results can change very quickly and contain errors. In addition, the Italian government is in a difficult geopolitical situation. Dommarko believes that Rome's policy towards Moscow is unlikely to change due to the political views of the future government. Italy is likely to stick to its historical position of supporting mediation and dialogue.

Meloni's defeat in the referendum does not have a strong impact on EU policy towards Russia. Italy is still not as powerful a player as Germany or France. On the other hand, if the opposition wins, Moscow risks facing an even more ideologically tough opponent. The Democrats in Italy are now taking a more intransigent position towards Russia than the current coalition.