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- Necessary, but enough: expensive oil can bring up to 3.5 trillion rubles to the budget
Necessary, but enough: expensive oil can bring up to 3.5 trillion rubles to the budget
The conflict over Iran has driven up the price of Russian oil by more than 70%. If this situation persists until the end of the year, it could bring the budget an additional 3.5 trillion rubles in revenue, that is, to cover its deficit to a large extent, experts say. In addition, expensive raw materials will strengthen the ruble. In recent days, it has fallen in price to 88 per dollar, but on March 20 it rose again to 84. Such volatility is associated with the suspension of currency sales under the budget rule, which reduced the supply of money on the market. How oil will be affected by Iran's new policy of charging fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and what will happen to the ruble exchange rate in the coming months — in the Izvestia article.
How will expensive oil change budget revenues?
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the almost complete lack of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have led to the fact that oil prices have steadily gained a foothold at a three-digit level. On March 20, Brent was trading at about $110 per barrel, while Russian Urals was trading at $106. At the same time, the federal budget for this year was calculated based on the price of raw materials at $59.
More expensive raw materials can bring additional revenues to the treasury. An increase in the average oil price by $10 adds about 0.8–1 trillion rubles of revenue to the budget due to the mining tax and export payments, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. The current level allows for an additional 3-4 trillion rubles per year. The effect is now being amplified by the weakening of the ruble by about 10% since the beginning of March — 84 per dollar at the Central Bank's exchange rate on March 23. This increases the ruble revenue of exporters and directly increases the tax base, the expert added.
— If Urals stays in the range of $90-100 per barrel, additional budget revenues may amount to about 2.5–3.5 trillion rubles. If prices partially adjust in the second half of 2026, the final effect will be closer to 1.5-2 trillion rubles," explained Vladimir Chernov.
With the budgeted average annual price of $59, oil and gas revenues were projected at 8.9 trillion, while the deficit was just under 3.8 trillion. With the average annual cost of raw materials at $90 per barrel and a dollar exchange rate of 83-85 rubles, oil and gas revenues may amount to over 12 trillion, that is, 3 trillion more than planned, said Nikolai Dudchenko, analyst at Finam.
According to Andrey Shadrin, director of Absolut Bank's private banking business development department, with the current state of the market, the Russian budget's oil and gas revenues will grow from 400 billion rubles per month to more than 1 trillion, meaning that each month of blocking the Strait of Hormuz will bring at least 600 billion rubles.
Strait of Hormuz
At the same time, oil and gas revenues come to the budget with a time lag of about one to two months, since taxes are calculated at the prices of previous periods, Vladimir Chernov explained. In other words, the spike in oil prices that occurred in March will begin to be fully reflected in budget revenues in April-May.
However, as Izvestia wrote earlier, market quotations do not always reflect real income from exports. Public data on the Urals price often differ from the actual terms of supply. Due to the sanctions, Russian exporters often provide additional discounts that are not visible to the market. As a result, some shipments may be sold cheaper, so rising stock prices may not close the budget deficit.
What will happen to oil due to the conflict in the Middle East
On March 20, the Lloyd's List portal reported that Iran had partially unblocked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, organized a "safe corridor" for approved carriers and began charging fees for ships passing through it. According to the newspaper's sources, one of the operators paid about $2 million for the transit of his tanker.
According to the newspaper, at least nine vessels have already passed through the strait according to this scheme, while it is unknown how many of them paid for the passage permit, because in some cases the parties limited themselves to diplomatic intervention. In addition, the mechanism for making payments remains unclear, taking into account the current sanctions against Iran.
— Oil prices will be sensitive to the situation around Iran for several weeks in the short term. The escalation of tension, especially in the form of attacks on oil and gas facilities or tankers, will inevitably lead to a further increase in quotations, bringing them closer to $ 150 per barrel. At the same time, signs of a possible end to the conflict or at least a weakening of mutual attacks on fuel and energy facilities will help stabilize the price situation. Iran's latest statement about its intention to charge a fee for passage through the Strait of Hormuz is one of such signs," said Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
It can be assumed that Tehran is under pressure from countries that buy Middle Eastern oil, primarily China, and its task is to partially restore transit through the strait without losing face and creating the feeling that the Islamic Republic is making concessions, the expert believes.
— In this regard, the ideal solution would be to skip tankers that "need tankers." For example, by issuing personal permits, even if they are paid. Since the main buyer of Persian Gulf oil is the Asia—Pacific countries, the scale of such "permitted" transit may be large, which will inevitably lead to lower oil prices, Valery Andrianov believes.
However, there is still a risk of escalation: for example, if the United States lands troops on Kharq Island, a key hub for Iranian oil exports, said Dmitry Gusev, deputy chairman of the supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association of Consumers and Suppliers of Energy Resources. In response, Tehran will probably be forced to take action, and then the Strait of Hormuz will most likely be blocked again, the expert added. In this case, the price of oil may rise to $ 150-200, he believes.
What will happen to the ruble exchange rate in 2026
The growth of oil and gas revenues will soon affect the fullness of the Russian budget, said Nikolai Dudchenko from Finam. This is a positive factor for the ruble exchange rate, as exporters sell the received currency, supporting the national currency.
At the same time, the ruble has weakened by almost 10% since the beginning of March. On the over-the-counter market on March 19, the Russian national currency was above 99.5 per euro and 87 per dollar, the next day these currencies fell back to 97 and 84, respectively. According to the Bank of Russia on March 21, the euro was trading at 97.28 rubles, and the dollar at 83.99.
The main reason for this weakening is a change in the policy of the Ministry of Finance. In March, the authorities suspended the sale of foreign exchange earnings under the budget rule, which previously provided a significant supply of foreign currency on the market, said Alexander Dzhioev, head of the macroeconomics and stock market group at Alfa Capital Management Company. This led to a decrease in foreign exchange liquidity and an increase in the dollar exchange rate, he added.
Additional pressure on the ruble comes from the expected change in the cut-off price of oil. It determines whether the Ministry of Finance will sell the currency from the NWF or buy it. At the same time, lowering this threshold means that the agency will begin to replenish the "pot" at a lower level than what is currently budgeted, Alexander Dzhioev noted. In this case, the volume of demand for the currency, all other things being equal, will increase. And this, in turn, will weaken the ruble.
At a press conference after the key rate meeting on March 20, the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, said it was too early to talk about a pronounced weakening trend of the ruble. The appreciation of the national currency is due to the low oil price in January and the suspension of operations under the budget rule, she explained.
The aggravation of the situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on market conditions. High oil and gas budget revenues support the course, but the conflict itself creates a significant uncertainty factor, Nabiullina said. According to her, the effects will depend on the extent of the conflict.
Nevertheless, experts interviewed by Izvestia expect that by the end of spring the ruble will weaken a little more — to 90 per dollar. The euro exchange rate is likely to drop to 100-101 rubles, and the yuan to 13. At the same time, according to Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, in favor of the ruble in 2026 will be increased oil prices, a trade surplus (excess of the country's exports over imports), as well as a still high key interest rate. The Central Bank is slowly easing monetary policy - in March, for the seventh time in a row, it lowered the rate by only 0.5 percentage points, to 15% per annum.
At the same time, if the key rate is lowered again, the ruble will be weaker, because demand for it will fall. However, any improvements in geopolitics, according to the expert, are likely to lead to a stronger ruble exchange rate due to improved terms of foreign trade and the influx of foreign capital.
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