More than it will affect: the global gas crisis will last about five years
The Gulf war has already disabled almost 20-25% of the world's LNG production capacity, and one of the largest producers of liquefied natural gas, QatarEnergy, has announced its intention to declare force majeure on long—term contracts. According to analysts, the restoration of Middle Eastern LNG projects may take from three to five years, and the new capacities will fully compensate for the lost volumes of liquefied natural gas only by 2030. See the Izvestia article about which countries will be most affected and how world gas prices will change.
The impact of the Gulf War on the gas market
Israel's missile strikes on Iran's South Pars field, Tehran's response to the Qatari LNG plant in Ras Laffan, as well as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have already led to a serious crisis in the global gas market, which, according to analysts, will last for more than one year. To date, the Middle East conflict has taken almost 20-25% of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes off the market, and natural gas prices in Europe are showing jumps above the $850 mark per 1,000 cubic meters.
— Qatar normally supplied about 81 million tons per year, or 19% of the world market, with a volume of 429 million tons. The confirmed permanent losses amount to 12.8 million tons. Taking into account the paralysis of the entire transit through Hormuz, the total loss amounts to 20-25% of the global market, which is comparable in scale to the withdrawal of Russian pipeline gas from Europe in 2022," Dmitry Kasatkin, managing partner of Kasatkin Consulting, told Izvestia.
According to Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director General for Gas Problems at the National Energy Security Fund (NWF), the total capacity loss is up to 85 million tons of LNG.
The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz is a serious problem that actually restricts access to the market for a significant part of LNG supplies from Qatar and the UAE and increases the risks of a physical shortage of the product, said Ivan Timonin, Senior manager at Implementation. In this regard, one of the largest producers of liquefied natural gas, QatarEnergy, announced its intention to declare force majeure on long—term LNG supply contracts for up to five years.
— We are talking about our long-term commitments. Earlier, we declared force majeure for a shorter period, but now it can apply to any period," Saad al-Kaabi, the head of the company, said in an interview with Reuters.
Among the countries that could be affected, he named Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China.
According to Dmitry Kasatkin, force majeure for up to five years reflects the real physical picture: the restoration of two destroyed lines in Ras Laffan will take at least three years with the immediate start of construction, which currently does not exist. The realistic horizon for the return of damaged capacities is 2029-2031, he added.
Who will return the lost supply volumes to the market
Back at the end of 2025, experts predicted that the global LNG market would see the largest capacity expansion in history. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2030, LNG supply will grow faster than demand. Analysts believed that global demand would reach about 560 million tons, and supply would amount to 650-670 million tons, exceeding demand by 3-15.5%.
According to Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, according to previously announced plans, 2026-2027 was supposed to be the period of the most intensive commissioning of LNG plants in the history of the industry.
— The total capacity of all planned projects reaches 125 million tons, however, 32 million tons of them are in Qatar, and today the probability of postponing their completion dates is very high. In the United States, it is planned to launch about more than 35 million tons of LNG capacity in 2026. Canada plans to launch its first LNG project for 14 million tons, and Mexico and a number of African countries have projects on capacity commissioning, the expert recalled.
However, there will be no real replacement by the end of this year, Dmitry Kasatkin believes. According to him, all existing manufacturers are working at the limit of their capacity.
— The United States will provide an increase of about 20 million tons due to new projects, Russia is able to add 5-6 million tons from Arctic LNG-2. Partial replacement is possible by 2027-2028, and the full closure of the hole will last until 2030," the expert noted.
In addition, as Vyacheslav Mishchenko, head of the Center for Analysis and Technology Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex, reminds, the fighting continues, and this may upset the balance in the global market.
— The deficit will grow, despite attempts by other countries to replace it and the search for alternative sources. Because not all states are able to quickly increase production and ensure gas exports," the expert stressed.
According to the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2050, the growth of LNG exports from Russia in the baseline scenario will reach 102 million tons per year by 2030, 133 million tons by 2036 and up to 179 million tons by 2050. At the same time, the other day, Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev said that his department, when adjusting its Energy Strategy, "will take into account the emergence of new trends, challenges and technologies."
Izvestia sent inquiries to the Ministry of Energy, as well as to the largest Russian gas companies.
Who will lose and who will benefit from the crisis
In the first echelon of the "losers" are the direct recipients of Qatari LNG under force majeure contracts - South Korea, China, Italy and Belgium. Japan and Taiwan are forced to compete in the spot market at any price, Dmitry Kasatkin believes.
According to Ivan Timonin, most of the shipments through Hormuz were sent to Asian countries, primarily to China, Japan, and South Korea. More than a quarter of the region's total imports were supplied through the strait.
However, in his opinion, "due to the global interconnectedness of markets, European consumers will also have a significant effect, at least due to rising prices and increased competition for LNG." In Europe, the escalation of the Middle East conflict led to a jump in gas prices over $850 per 1,000 cubic meters, which was the highest since December 2022.
— The current situation certainly opens up new opportunities for Russian manufacturers: in conditions of a real shortage, it becomes much more difficult to exert sanctions pressure on them. In addition, they benefit from a more favorable price environment," said Ivan Timonin.
According to Vyacheslav Mishchenko, Russia exported just over 33 million tons of LNG in 2025. Given the current market situation, he believes that Russian manufacturers and exporters will receive more profit from export operations.
At the same time, in his opinion, it is extremely important for the Russian Federation to build long-term relations with those countries that were strategically dependent on gas supplies from Qatar.
— These are Bangladesh, partly Southeast Asian countries. That is, with those who may not have actively sought cooperation with Russia. After all, no one understands now how and when this conflict will end. Therefore, if I were domestic manufacturers, I would now pursue the most active policy of creating strategic alliances with those countries that would be interested in partnering with Russia as an alternative and reliable supplier," Vyacheslav Mishchenko said.
As for gas prices, experts do not expect a decline in quotations in the next two years. According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, Europe will not see gas at $200 per thousand cubic meters for a long time. Like it was five or six years ago.
Europe continues to insist on abandoning Russian gas, and the ban on LNG imports under fixed-term contracts will come into force at the end of April. Even assuming an unlikely end to the conflict in the Middle East tomorrow, supply shortages will keep prices high — in the range of $500-700 per thousand cubic meters. m, — which, according to the expert, will ensure the positive dynamics of export earnings of Russian manufacturers.
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