Is a US ground operation possible in Iran? Analysis

The next step of the United States in the conflict with Iran may be to conduct ground operations on the territory of the Islamic Republic. The US military may try to seize islands in the Persian Gulf to control Iranian oil supplies, or to invade missile and nuclear infrastructure facilities. The administration of Donald Trump does not rule out that it will take such a step, despite the risks of high personnel losses and political consequences. How likely is the participation of American ground forces in the conflict — in the Izvestia material.

Expansion of the conflict

• Three weeks after the start of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, it can be argued that the war has lost its momentum and has begun to drag on. The United States and Israel managed to damage Iran's military potential and eliminated a number of senior leaders of the Islamic Republic, including Supreme Ruler Ali Khamenei, but they did not achieve complete success. Iran retained its state structure and blocked the Strait of Hormuz, hitting oil supplies. The operation, which was conceived as a lightning regime change and the elimination of the nuclear program without serious damage to the global economy, was thwarted.

• Now the conflict must move to a new stage: either end or expand. Neither side is ready for reconciliation. The United States and Israel continue to insist that Iran must be stripped of its nuclear and missile programs, as well as stop funding its allies in the Middle East. Iran, for its part, demands full guarantees of its security and demonstrates a desire to continue the armed struggle. Moreover, even if the United States decides to withdraw from the game and declare victory one day, Iran will most likely continue to strike at the infrastructure.

In this regard, it is more likely that the United States will escalate the conflict, and one of the options is to conduct ground operations directly on the territory of Iran. Recently, the media has noted that the administration of Donald Trump has begun to allow the use of ground forces and is developing appropriate plans. At the same time, officials do not deny the use of ground forces: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the United States is ready to go "as far as necessary," and Secretary of State Marco Rubio pointed out that Iran's nuclear materials need to be physically protected.

Ground operations

• So far, the Pentagon's plans to move combat operations to land remain on paper. A full-scale invasion of Iran is absolutely impossible. This country is four times the size of Iraq, where the United States deployed its troops the last time, and also has a difficult mountainous terrain. Despite the claims about the defeat of Iran's missile infrastructure, it still has its own ground forces capable of resisting.

• However, the transfer of troops on a limited scale to fulfill highly specialized purposes should not be ruled out. At the moment, the most pressing problem for the United States is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's move is causing discontent among its allies in the Middle East, trading partners around the world, and the U.S. population, which has begun to feel the rising cost of gasoline.

Combat Practice: how Iran maintained its air defenses under U.S. and Israeli attacks

Some of the complexes continue to operate and attack targets, despite claims of their destruction.

• To try to weaken the blockade of the strait, the United States may seize the islands of Qeshm and Hormuz, near which the waterway runs. The United States has a hypothetical opportunity to send several thousand Marines from Japan and land them with the help of V-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft. These forces may be enough to capture a small area, especially if preliminary strikes are launched in order to neutralize the Iranian Armed Forces stationed there. Even if it is not possible to unblock the strait, this step will delay the Iranian tankers that continue to supply oil. The ability to limit oil exports to China is also the goal of the United States in the current conflict.

• Khark Island may be another target. It is located in the northern part of the Persian Gulf, 25 km from the coast of Iran. The 23-square-kilometer island is of great economic importance to Iran: 90% of all Iranian oil exports pass through it. On March 13, the United States has already attacked military facilities located on it. The seizure of Kharqa could deprive Iran of oil export revenues, but it would raise world oil prices even higher.

• Potential targets in Iran also include missile and unmanned infrastructure facilities, as well as nuclear program facilities in Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan. Disabling them would make it possible to assert that the main objective of Operation Epic Fury is guaranteed to be fulfilled and no further military impact on Iran is required. Only special forces forces can certify their command that these facilities can no longer be used to create nuclear weapons.

Risks of ground operations

• Any such operation would be extremely risky for the United States. In the case of the capture of islands, it is important not only to invade the territory, but also to hold it. This task is already practically unsolvable. All of the islands described above are located too close to mainland Iran. The US military will immediately find itself under constant attack, not only by missiles and drones, but also by artillery. Iran's unmanned boats will make it impossible to establish logistics by sea.

• The issue of possible losses arises separately. The current nature of the war makes it possible to avoid a significant number of deaths; at the end of three weeks, the United States lost only 14 military personnel. However, amphibious landings and the retention of occupied territory will lead to a large number of dead and wounded, which will quickly approach the number of losses in the wars with Iraq and Afghanistan. For Trump, who made refusing to participate in bloody conflicts a campaign promise, this will be a significant blow to his rating.

However, the Trump administration may in any case take such a step to create leverage on Iran. A ground invasion, no matter how successful it turns out to be in the end, will in any case be a turning point in the current conflict and will become a factor that will influence the further actions of both sides. The USS Tripoli destroyer with 2.5 thousand Marines and air escort is already heading from Japan towards the Middle East, and this can already be considered an element of pressure on the current leadership of Iran.

When preparing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinion of:

• American political scientist Malek Dudakov.