Golden fuse: twice as many Russians started investing in precious metals
The number of private investors in the futures market of precious metals of the Moscow Stock Exchange exceeded 55 thousand in January, which is twice as much as a year ago, Izvestia found out. More than 70% of newcomers chose gold and silver, and the influx of investors accelerated fivefold. The excitement unfolded against the background of a drop in deposit rates to a minimum in two years (13.8%). The conflict in the Middle East has also fueled demand: gold is being invested as a protective asset. What will happen to prices next and how not to lose your investments is in the Izvestia article.
The reason for investing in precious metals
Russians began to actively invest in precious metals. In January 2026, the total number of investors in the precious metals futures market reached a record 82 thousand, and private investors - 55 thousand, according to the Moscow Exchange. Their number has doubled compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the share of private traders in silver, platinum and palladium trades exceeded 50%.
One of the main reasons for this trend is a decrease in interest on deposits, experts say. The easing of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia led to this situation. The average maximum rate of the top 10 banks dropped to 14.5% in January, and in the first decade of March it dropped to 13.87% — this is the minimum for two years, according to the Central Bank.
When deposit yields fall, private investors start looking for alternatives, and precious metals look like a logical next step, explained Alexey Golovinov, Chief Financial Markets Analyst at Vector Capital IC. According to him, conditions for the transfer of capital from deposits will remain at least until the end of the year.
But the main reason is to seek protection. Gold has historically been the main protective asset against any economic and geopolitical shocks, explained Olga Gogaladze, an expert on financial markets. For a Russian investor, buying gold works as a double hedge, that is, it protects against two threats at once: gold prices in the world are pegged to the dollar, therefore, by purchasing it for rubles, the investor insures against both global inflation and the devaluation of the national currency.
The PSB agreed that precious metals remain a sought-after tool for asset diversification in conditions of a limited choice of currency instruments. Last year, the bank sold 87,000 investment coins, which is 10% more than a year earlier. At the same time, the volume of purchased metal on accounts increased by 85%: purchases of gold by customers increased by 70%, and silver by 1.5 times.
VTB's portfolio of precious metals clients grew by 46% over the year, and the number of depersonalized metal accounts increased by 40%. Currently, the bank's clients hold 34 tons in gold accounts and 230 tons in silver accounts.
In Sberbank, sales of gold contracts (for physical metals and accounts) in January increased fourfold compared to the same month last year, and for silver — by 25 times. At the same time, the number of buyers of futures (derivatives of financial instruments that give the right to buy or sell an asset in the future) for silver in the bank has tripled.
When deciding where to invest money, investors evaluate three factors — the level of profitability, risk, and understanding of the instrument, said financial advisor and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin. According to him, precious metals are still on the rise and are showing good dynamics, which attracts private traders. In the long term, gold will grow, but it is not the most successful asset for speculation and fast money, the expert believes.
Why silver and platinum are more popular than gold
In January, more than half of the trading volume accounted for quarterly silver futures, 33% for gold, and 7% for platinum, according to data from the Moscow Stock Exchange. The volume of open positions (the total number of outstanding contracts) in precious metals increased by 49% this month and reached 239 billion rubles. Moreover, in silver, this indicator immediately jumped 2.8 times.
The popularity of silver and platinum is explained by volatility and the desire to make quick money. Gold is more stable, and its growth schedule is smoother. But silver, on the contrary, can rise and fall rapidly, platinum and palladium have even stronger dynamics, Olga Gogaladze explained.
— Private investors, especially beginners, come for quick profits. It seems to them that you can earn more on sudden jumps in silver. But where profitability is high, there are higher risks of falling value," the expert warned.
Two factors play a role here — a low entry threshold and high volatility, explained Alexey Golovinov. Gold is now more often chosen by institutional players and wealthy investors. Silver, platinum and palladium are noticeably more affordable, and the high amplitude of price movements attracts private traders, although it also increases risks.
Since the beginning of 2025, silver has more than doubled in price — from $30 to $69 per ounce, platinum — from $950 to $1943, and palladium — from $870 to $1,428 per ounce.
Additionally, these metals may attract those who consider them as assets with an industrial basis related to solar energy, electronics, and the hydrogen theme. There is both a rational grain and an additional risk in this: production demand is sensitive to the cycle, and in the event of a slowdown in the global economy, these metals will react more sharply than gold, warned Denis Astafyev, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform.
How geopolitics affects the price of gold
The escalation in the Persian Gulf zone and the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz have become additional factors spurring interest in protective assets. The dynamics of precious metals prices continues to be directly dependent on the development of the situation in the Middle East. With further deterioration of the situation, gold may return to $5,200-5300 per ounce, and with de—escalation, it may gain a foothold below $5,000 with the prospect of falling to the range of $4,800-4,900, according to Dmitry Vishnevsky, an analyst at Digit Broker.
At the same time, despite positive expectations, the so-called geopolitical premium in gold prices is not increasing now, said Nikolai Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam. Since the beginning of March, they have fallen by 13% — by 17:00 on March 19, metal futures were worth $4,680 per ounce.
At the same time, in 2025, the precious metal rose in price by 44% — in January 2026, at its peak, its price reached $ 5,600 per ounce. However, then there was a sharp correction: the price of the metal collapsed by more than 20%.
This is due to the liquidation of positions on the US stock markets, including to cover margin calls (forced asset sales by a broker when the value falls below a critical level). In addition, the price is currently under pressure from the rising dollar exchange rate: a conflict could lead to a recession and affect the trajectory of global key interest rates, Nikolai Dudchenko noted. Only in the second quarter is a transition to growth possible, especially if Donald Trump pushes through a rate cut in the United States, which will reverse the dollar exchange rate.
On March 18, the US Federal Reserve kept the key rate at 3.5–3.75%, and its updated forecast indicates only one rate cut before the end of 2026. This increased the pressure on gold through the strengthening of the dollar and rising government bond yields.
Last year, the market was warming up, and in January, investors recorded profits, which caused a sharp decline. But minus the speculative share, the increase in gold prices is objective against the background of global economic risks, explained Alexander Schneiderman, head of Alfa-Forex's customer support and sales department. He also noted the huge interest in gold on the over—the-counter market: in 2025, trading volumes exceeded 2.88 trillion rubles, overtaking the traditional favorites - the dollar and the euro. This happened for the first time in history.
What is the danger of hype for beginners
The futures market is not a "safe haven". Gold futures are comparable to stocks in terms of risk, explained Roman Belikov, a leading investment consultant at Gazprombank Investments. In a classic portfolio, the share of gold can be about 20%, but due to high volatility and significant growth last year, the expert recommends reducing it to 15%. According to the expert, silver and palladium are more suitable for specialized strategies and will not be useful to every investor.
It is worth remembering that in January, gold collapsed from a peak of more than 20% in a few days, which triggered a multiple increase in margin calls from Russian brokers, said Denis Astafyev from SharesPro. In terms of volatility, the metal then surpassed bitcoin. At the same time, in 2025, Russians bought up to 50 tons of physical gold, compared to 34 tons a year earlier.
— This is the main thing: not a rush in futures, but a steady flow to physical metals and exchange-traded funds. In January, Russians invested a record 6 billion rubles in mutual funds for precious metals. There is no leverage, the margin call does not threaten, and on the horizon from three years, the state also exempts from personal income tax," the expert emphasized.
Mutual funds (mutual funds) are a form of collective investment where the funds of multiple shareholders are pooled and transferred to a professional management company to invest in various assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals). Each investor receives a share — a security confirming his share in the fund's assets. The income becomes the difference between the purchase and sale price of the unit.
The influx of a large number of newcomers to the futures market looks alarming from the point of view of risk management. Mini-contracts lower the entry threshold, but the interest rate risk remains the same — when the price moves 10% unfavorably, a position with a typical leverage of 1:5 actually cuts off half of the deposit, warns Alexey Golovinov. He advises beginners to start with compulsory medical insurance, spend three to six months understanding the market, and only then carefully move on to derivatives (contracts that the parties undertake to fulfill in the future according to agreed terms. — Ed.).
The press service of the Moscow Stock Exchange added: trades are conducted in strict accordance with the risk management system, and prompt changes in risk rates and price boundaries are aimed at ensuring that participants maintain sufficient security in case of sudden market movements.
Precious metals price forecast in 2026
With the aggravation of the geopolitical situation, the price of gold may rise to $ 5,300—5,400 per ounce, and silver - to $ 100-110 against the background of chronic shortages in industry, predicts Olga Gogaladze. Alexey Rodin allows for an increase in the first to $5,500-6,000 by the middle of the year.
According to Alexander Schneiderman from Alfa-Forex, in early spring, gold prices should be expected in the range of $4900-5400 per ounce, and silver — $ 73-98. He noted that economic statistics and the pause in the Fed rate cut are slowing growth.
The market is currently overheated locally, Alexey Golovinov believes. The ratio of the value of gold and silver has fallen below the historical norm (about 60) and is about 58.6, which seems to be a sign of aggressive positioning of speculators, the expert believes.
Platinum looks more confident due to the structural shortage of supply, and palladium may reach a surplus within two years, the expert believes. Gold remains the most balanced asset with a lower probability of a sharp correction.
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