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Defense failure: the war in the Middle East has created problems for the supply of air defense to Kiev
The war over Iran has created problems for the supply of air defense to Ukraine, a European diplomatic source told Izvestia. It was the conflict in the Middle East and Kiev's support that became one of the main topics on the first day of the EU leaders' summit in Brussels. The events in the Persian Gulf resulted in a spike in gas prices. And in Europe, they are already talking about normalizing relations with Moscow for the sake of cheap resources. The situation was aggravated by Kiev's attacks on the Druzhba oil pipeline and threats to the infrastructure of the Turkish Stream and the Blue Stream, which Moscow calls irresponsible. How the new energy shock changes the situation within the European Union — in the Izvestia article.
The first day of the EU summit
The summit in Brussels is taking place from March 19th to 20th. On the eve of the meeting, the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, stated that the consequences of the Middle East escalation "are already being felt in Europe." According to him, the crisis has once again exposed the vulnerability of the region. The head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, spoke in a similar vein. She called for looking for "a way out of this war, not an escalation," noting that attacks on the energy infrastructure of the Middle East only increase chaos and harm the interests of the EU itself.
Already on the first day of the summit, it became obvious that the countries have completely different interests. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made it clear that Berlin is ready to promote the safety of sea routes, as previously called for by American leader Donald Trump in the context of the Strait of Hormuz, but only after the cessation of hostilities. Europe is still avoiding direct involvement in the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran, despite increasing pressure from Washington.
At the same time, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called the US and Israeli campaign illegal, stressing that the Europeans are already paying for it both in humanitarian and financial terms. Earlier, Spain flatly refused to participate in a military mission in the Strait of Hormuz.
As Vadim Kozyulin, a professor at the Academy of Military Sciences, noted in an interview with Izvestia, in the situation around Iran, Europe actually found itself "on the periphery of world events" and is currently reacting to US actions rather than forming its own line. According to him, disagreements are already noticeable within the EU not only on the Middle East conflict, but also on Ukraine.
Amid the crisis, signals are being heard among the European establishment about the need to restore political channels with Moscow. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever explicitly called for the subsequent normalization of relations with Russia and the return of access to cheaper energy, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb said that Europe was approaching the moment when it would have to open channels of political dialogue with Moscow. The statements by Wever and Stubb indicate that an understanding is maturing among European elites: the policy of isolating Russia has failed, Pavel Feldman, professor at the Academy of Labor and Social Relations, told Izvestia.
Nevertheless, most European politicians are still determined to maintain conflicting relations with the Russian Federation.
— The Europeans have the determination to help Ukraine defend itself. Europe is ready to continue providing assistance. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the problem of air defense supplies for Ukraine is serious. The EU's financial capabilities exceed Russia's: Russia's GDP is only 10% of the EU's GDP," a European diplomatic source told Izvestia.
Although when it comes to military production, Moscow's capabilities are significantly superior to those of Europe. The head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, said in January 2025 that the Russian defense industry produces tanks, aerial bombs and artillery ammunition in huge volumes, and in three months the Russian Federation is able to produce more weapons and ammunition than Europe in a year. A similar assessment was given by the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in March 2025. At the same time, rising energy prices in the EU countries may affect the spending of European countries on rearmament, in which they want to overtake Russia.
Hungary continues to block the €90 billion tranche to Kiev
Nevertheless, the EU is trying to remain united. The official documents of the summit state that pressure on Moscow remains "essential," and the total amount of aid to Kiev from the union has reached an impressive €194.9 billion, of which €69.7 billion is for military needs.
At the same time, European bureaucrats have one problem — Hungary continues to block the €90 billion tranche agreed in December for the next two years. As Vadim Kozyulin noted, the EU may adjust tactics under pressure from public opinion and the growing popularity of opposition or radical parties, but it will not retreat from the strategic line on Ukraine yet.
The Druzhba oil pipeline has become a stumbling block. Budapest and Bratislava are demanding that the pumping of raw materials be restored in an ultimatum. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto explicitly stated on March 16 that the veto on new anti-Russian sanctions and loans to Kiev would not be lifted until supplies resumed.
According to the head of the INF, Ivan Timofeev, the issue of Druzhba supplies is becoming even more acute for Hungary and Slovakia in the context of the Middle East escalation. That is why these countries are trying to get Brussels to put tougher pressure on Kiev on the issue of transit.
At the same time, Kiev has also intensified its attempts to hit compressor stations that ensure the operation of the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream gas pipelines. In particular, on March 11, the Russian Defense Ministry announced an attack on the Russkaya station serving the Turkish Stream, as well as an attempt to strike the Beregovaya station in the Tuapse region associated with the Blue Stream. From March 17 to March 19, the infrastructure was subjected to new attacks. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Kiev's actions irresponsible.
—And at a time when global energy markets are feeling uncomfortable, to put it mildly, such irresponsible thoughtless actions by the Kiev regime can further destabilize the situation not only in the region, but throughout the world," he said.
Attacks on the infrastructure of the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream will not only increase market nervousness, but also accelerate the EU's search for new schemes to replace Russian gas, Timofeev stressed. However, such a scenario would mean a further increase in prices within the European Union, which means additional costs for ordinary European consumers.
The energy crisis in the EU
By the beginning of the summit, the global energy market was in a deplorable state. The price of gas on the European stock exchange at the opening of trading on March 19 exceeded $850 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since December 2022. The increase in quotations since the beginning of the day exceeded 30%, that is, the price of gas in Europe jumped by almost $ 200 compared to the end of the previous trading session. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil exceeded the price of $110 per barrel. Under normal conditions, about a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, so its actual closure has become a serious problem for Europe.
Attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East are becoming systematic, pushing prices up. Tehran's attacks on infrastructure in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were a response to the Israeli attack on the Iranian South Pars field. Ras Laffan, a key Qatari gas hub, was seriously damaged, and its decommissioning threatens a global shortage.
For the European Union, this escalation is extremely untimely — the union has not yet recovered from the shock of 2022-2023. In March, the European Commission reported that almost 10% of the EU population still cannot afford adequate heating, and over 30 million people struggle to pay utility bills. A new round of the Middle East conflict will hit precisely such vulnerable strata.
— Citizens can see what this policy of Brussels leads to. Fuel prices are rising, and this, of course, increases social tension and discontent within the EU," Kozyulin said.
At the same time, the impact is unevenly distributed across Europe. The main victims of the price spike were countries with a high share of gas generation. Calculations by Reuters based on Electricity Maps and Ember show that average wholesale electricity prices in Italy, Hungary and Romania jumped by at least 12% year-on-year. On the contrary, France, Spain and Portugal feel more confident due to advanced nuclear and renewable energy. One way or another, the rise in energy prices will hit every home and every business, Pavel Feldman emphasized.
"Europe found itself in the position of an abandoned ally, who was used as an instrument of pressure on Russia, and now left to deal with the consequences alone," the expert emphasized.
According to media reports, the draft final communique of the summit instructs the European Commission to urgently develop a "set of temporary targeted measures" to curb prices for imported fuel. We are talking about possible tax breaks, adjustments to the ETS (European Emissions Trading System) and the expansion of government support. But there is no unity here either: a bloc of ten states, including Poland, Italy, Hungary and Slovakia, demands a radical revision of the climate system and the preservation of free carbon quotas for factories. They are opposed by the Netherlands, Spain and their allies, who oppose any concessions for industry to the detriment of the environment.
But even the countries opposing the weakening of the EU's climate policy do not signal their readiness to soften the anti—Russian energy policy. As the Russian Embassy in the Netherlands told Izvestia, in The Hague, even in these circumstances, they consider the collective anti-Russian agenda more important than economic interests.
"Here, as throughout the world, energy prices continue to rise day by day, and this blow primarily affects the poor, who have already faced difficulties paying gas and heating bills since the introduction of anti—Russian sanctions," the diplomats noted.
Nevertheless, the Dutch authorities do not demonstrate interest in resuming purchases of Russian LNG, the diplomatic mission concluded.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
