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- Cover with tomatoes: tomatoes have risen in price by 6% in a week amid the conflict in Iran%
Cover with tomatoes: tomatoes have risen in price by 6% in a week amid the conflict in Iran%
Tomatoes in Russia increased in price by almost 6% in the first week of March, according to Rosstat data (Izvestia studied them). The dynamics were influenced by seasonality and supply disruptions from Iran after the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Although the Islamic Republic's share in tomato imports is small, about 4%, some of its products may enter the market through other channels. Iran has also been a major supplier of sweet peppers, which have increased in price by about one and a half times in recent weeks. At the same time, experts do not expect either a shortage or a noticeable acceleration of inflation: other countries and Russian producers can compensate for the missing volumes.
Which vegetables have gone up in price in Russia
From March 3 to March 10, vegetable prices in Russia decreased by an average of 0.1%. However, there was an increase in individual items: tomatoes rose in price by 5.6%, carrots — by 3.6%, potatoes — by 2.1%, cabbage — by 1.7%, according to Rosstat data.
Since the end of February, tomatoes have gained almost 7%, carrots — about 5%, potatoes — 2.5%, cabbage — 2%.
The overall price reduction was provided by cucumbers — they fell in price by 8% in a week. This is due to a pullback after a sharp increase earlier, according to the latest CMAKP inflation monitoring (the editorial board has studied it). The center notes that this effect is likely to be short—term - the suspension of supplies from Iran (about 20% of imports and 2% of the market) may also have an impact here.
The United States and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February, and on March 3, the Islamic Republic banned the export of food and agricultural raw materials — more than 60% of its supplies to Russia.
— In early March, direct supplies of vegetables — peppers, cucumbers, eggplants - stopped. The leftovers are being sold now, so prices could rise," explained Leonid Kholod, ex—Deputy Minister of Agriculture.
At the same time, some of the tomatoes that are supplied to Russia as Azerbaijani may actually be Iranian, said Andrei Barkhota, PhD in Economics.
Iran's share in tomato imports is small — about 4% (20 thousand tons out of 500 thousand tons). The main suppliers of tomatoes are Azerbaijan (35-38%) and Turkey (about 12%), as well as Georgia, Central Asian countries and China.
Tehran held a significant share in other categories: up to 90% of celery and pistachio imports, 75-80% of eggplant and kiwi, about half of dates and sweet peppers. Already, red pepper from Iran has risen in price by about 43%, yellow — by 58%, said Alexander Abramov, head of the Laboratory for Analysis of Institutions and financial markets at the Presidential Academy.
According to the company "Restaurants need", in the week from March 2 to March 8, romaine lettuce rose in price by 152%, bell peppers — by 60%, eggplants — by 13%. The following week, the growth continued: salads added another 15%, eggplants — 48%, peppers — 30%. In February, sweet peppers cost an average of 336 rubles per kg. Now it costs 450-650 rubles in stores, Izvestia calculated.
At the same time, the market can partially compensate for the falling volumes at the expense of other countries and Russian greenhouses. Therefore, the price increase is likely to be limited — at the level of 5-10% in the short term, says Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of the VMT Consult agency.
The FAS is monitoring the situation with vegetable prices and recommends that regions actively enter into agreements with market participants in order to curb growth and smooth out seasonal fluctuations, the agency's press service told Izvestia. They added that together with the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and deputies, they are working on a bill to introduce a mandatory share of long—term contracts for the supply of products - this should reduce sharp price spikes, while maintaining the flexibility of business conditions.
Izvestia sent requests to the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Agriculture.
Is there a risk of vegetable deficiency
Large retail chains have an import supply system that allows them to quickly redistribute volumes between countries, said Stanislav Bogdanov, Chairman of the Association of Retail Companies. Sweet peppers, in addition to Iran, are imported from Turkey, Thailand and Guinea. Minimum prices in the networks now start from about 400 rubles. for 1 kg of pepper and from 250 rubles. for 1 kg of tomatoes.
At the same time, there are no prerequisites for a shortage or a sharp rise in prices, he believes. The vegetables of the borscht set are mainly produced in Russia, so the import situation has almost no effect on them. A significant part of the greens and leafy salads are also grown domestically.
There are alternative suppliers for each category of goods from Iran, Stanislav Bogdanov added. In winter and spring, vegetables come from Turkey, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Uzbekistan and China, citrus fruits from Morocco, Turkey and South Africa, dried fruits and nuts from Uzbekistan, India and Pakistan, kiwis from Chile and China.
— Cucumbers, tomatoes, and peppers are easily replaced by Russian products. Even if supplies from Iran or Azerbaijan decrease, the market will be able to replace them," Konstantin Yurov, deputy chairman of the People's Farmer Association, confirmed.
For example, the share of cucumber imports in the Russian market as a whole is small — no more than 6%, said Dmitry Vostrikov, executive director of the Rusprodsoyuz Association. At the same time, the supply of these vegetables from Iran is seasonal: more than 90% falls in December – February, and since March they have been replaced by Russian products.
How the conflict with Iran affects inflation in Russia
Iran also traditionally supplies construction materials to Russia. But so far, their shortage has not affected prices, as previously imported shipments are being sold on the market, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. According to her estimates, in the future such goods may rise in price by 5-15%, depending on the availability of alternatives.
Price increases are also possible for a number of other items. In particular, pistachios may rise in price due to the high dependence of the confectionery industry on Iranian supplies, the expert continued. Coffee, cocoa and spices are also at risk: they may be affected by disruptions in logistics amid the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, she added. If the conflict drags on until the summer, it may also affect cherries and cherries, since during this period Russia is actively dependent on imports, including from Iran.
In addition, the increase in prices may affect machinery and auto parts, says Ekaterina Kosareva from VMT Consult. These markets are sensitive to exchange rates and logistics. As global oil prices rise, transportation costs increase, which gradually affects the cost of a wide range of goods, including groceries.
In general, the risk zone includes categories with a high proportion of imports: electronics, components, as well as certain types of fruits and vegetables. At the same time, the price increase is likely to be limited and will amount to several percent, unless there are prolonged disruptions in world trade, Ekaterina Kosareva noted.
At the same time, Russia may partially benefit from the situation due to the growing demand for raw materials and energy resources, says Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. However, at the same time, imported inflation will increase, primarily in food, machinery and equipment.
The risks are not only related to the prices themselves, but also to their perception. Sharp jumps in stores can increase inflationary expectations: customers are beginning to expect higher prices for other goods, said Alexander Abramov from the Presidential Academy.
In general, the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation in the Russian Federation will be limited, Natalia Milchakova believes. The Russian market is not heavily dependent on supplies from Iran, so it is more likely to be a slower decline in inflation rather than an acceleration. By the end of 2025, the expert expects an indicator of about 4.5%.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
