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- The stage of non-acceptance: The United States and Israel cannot decide on the outcome of the war in Iran
The stage of non-acceptance: The United States and Israel cannot decide on the outcome of the war in Iran
The United States and Israel disagree on a further campaign against Iran: while Washington is ready to announce the achievement of goals and reduce demands on Tehran, Israel insists on continuing the operation until the regime is completely weakened. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that Iran has withstood military pressure and retained a significant part of its military potential, which is gradually forcing the American and Israeli leadership to adjust their expectations. The first signs of a resumption of direct dialogue between Washington and Tehran are now emerging, but the terms of the parties remain extremely contradictory. Moreover, the situation may escalate at any moment due to the difficult situation around the Strait of Hormuz.
Can Americans get out of the conflict in the Middle East
Judging by the public statements of the parties, the United States and Israel see the continuation of the campaign against Iran in different ways. US President Donald Trump said that the United States has "practically no targets left for strikes" and the fighting can be completed at any moment. On March 17, he stated, "We will be leaving in the near future—pretty much in the very near future."
According to Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of Political Theory at MGIMO, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, the logic of US actions boils down to demanding the surrender of the Iranian leadership, either while maintaining power or through its change to a more loyal Washington. However, none of these scenarios is currently being considered. According to the expert, the Iranian elites have no incentive to make concessions: in the face of military pressure and the threat of physical elimination, they have "nothing to lose," so they cannot count on a voluntary departure from power or acceptance of American conditions.
— A scenario is becoming more likely in which the United States itself will take the first steps towards de-escalation. The internal situation may put pressure on Washington — rising fuel prices, skepticism from a significant part of society, including Republicans, as well as the approach of the congressional election campaign. If the conflict drags on for a month and a half, it risks becoming a political burden for the administration, which will push it to soften its position, Ivan Loshkarev told Izvestia.
If the Americans initially seemed to be betting on weakening Iran, now Washington is increasingly talking about fixing the results already achieved as a sufficient reason to complete the operation. Despite Trump's claims of a quick campaign, the conflict with Iran is dragging on, and key goals remain unfulfilled. The strikes have been going on for the third week, while it has not yet been possible to completely suppress Tehran's missile potential and close the US nuclear issue, although US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth argued that the operation should not escalate into a protracted war like the Iraqi one.
Donald Trump is able to announce the achievement of goals and complete the operation, presenting the weakening of Iran as a victory, Ivan Loshkarev believes. However, inside the United States, this may be perceived as a retreat, which will increase criticism of his inconsistency.
Despite serious losses and destruction of infrastructure, Iran retains significant military potential, said Grigory Lukyanov, an employee of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. According to him, even after the attacks on military facilities, infrastructure and command structures, the country has sufficient arsenal to continue military operations.
— Various types of weapons remain at Tehran's disposal — missile systems, as well as aerial and naval drones, which make it possible to strike at the enemy and demonstrate the ability to further escalate. This allows Iran to challenge statements about the complete victory of the United States and Israel and to influence the international political and economic agenda, Grigory Lukyanov told Izvestia.
Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, believes that Trump needs to quickly demonstrate the results, otherwise the early end of the campaign will allow Iran to declare victory. This threatens serious political consequences for his administration, so Washington is likely to continue pressure, despite the unresolved nuclear issue, he told Izvestia.
Israel will continue attacks on Iran
Israel expects to weaken the enemy as much as possible and create conditions for possible internal changes in Iran. According to Israeli Ambassador to Russia Oded Yosef, the military campaign will continue "as long as it takes" for a leadership with a different political course to be formed in Tehran.
Brigadier General Effie Defrin, spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), said on March 15, the 16th day of the war: "We still have thousands of targets in Iran and we are identifying new ones every day."
Earlier, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly stated that the Jewish state does not intend to curtail strikes. The operation will continue with "unrelenting momentum," he stressed on March 7. The Israeli Air Force carries out targeted strikes against Iranian facilities, ballistic missile factories, IRGC bases and command posts, while the main goal is to create "optimal conditions" for regime change from within.
On March 17, Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz announced that Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani had been killed in a strike. According to Trump, it happened on March 16. At the same time, the Israeli Air Force struck a target in the center of Tehran, killing Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of the Basij volunteer forces. The Basij is a paramilitary group that is part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and acts as a police force.
According to the Jerusalem Post, the Israeli army is not tasked with regime change in Iran. The Jewish state expects that the weakening of power may stimulate internal opposition.
Roman Yanushevsky believes that Israel will most likely end the war at the same time as the United States — after Washington announces that it has achieved its goals. However, to do this, the American side needs to resolve at least one key issue: either to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz (according to Trump, due to the refusal to unblock it by NATO countries, Japan, Australia and South Korea, the United States no longer needs their help), or to make progress on the Iranian nuclear program. Without this, the announcement of the end of the conflict will look premature.
— An important condition will be the cessation of attacks from Iran. If, after the US withdrawal, Tehran continues to strike at Israel and the countries of the region, this will create political risks for Donald Trump, who needs to show real results, and not just declare victory," Roman Yanushevsky said.
At the same time, even after the formal end of the war, Israel, according to the expert, will retain freedom of action and will be able to strike back if necessary. In addition, the main confrontation may shift towards Lebanon, where an expansion of the ground operation is possible.
At the same time, there are signs of a possible resumption of diplomatic contacts. According to media reports, in recent days, a direct communication channel has been restored between US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi — for the first time since the beginning of the conflict.
Nevertheless, Araqchi said that there had been no new contacts, and such messages were aimed at misleading the public. In Washington, on the contrary, they claim that the initiative came from the Iranian side and concerned possible ways to end the war. Tehran insists on its own terms of settlement. President of the Republic Masoud Peseshkian said earlier that the end of the conflict is possible only with the recognition of Iran's rights, the payment of reparations and the provision of international guarantees of non-repetition of aggression.
The White House rejects such demands, but does not rule out the possibility of a deal. According to US officials, Trump is ready for agreements that will allow Iran to return to economic cooperation with the outside world, but does not intend to negotiate "from a position of weakness."
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