Overpayment services: real loan rates reach 31%
Real loan rates reach 31% even after the key rate is lowered. Over the year, interest on unsecured loans decreased by only 3.2 percentage points, although the Central Bank's main indicator fell by 5.5 percentage points. At the same time, deposit rates fell significantly more over the same period, by about 7 percentage points, and now average about 13.5%. Banks include non-repayment risks in the cost of loans against the background of growth overdue debt. At the same time, the interest on them will be in double digits even in 2027. Why loans will remain expensive is in the Izvestia article.
Why are loan rates slowly decreasing
The average level of the full cost of a loan (PSK) in the largest banks reaches 31%, follows from the data of Finuslug, which was studied by Izvestia. Over the year, the indicator decreased by only 3.2 percentage points, although the key rate of the Bank of Russia dropped by 5.5 percentage points to 15.5% over the same period.
The minimum cost of consumer loans is now about 22.6% per annum, which is only 3.8 percentage points lower than last year. The upper limit is still around 39% per annum and has decreased by only 2.5 percentage points over the year.
The CPC is an indicator that reflects the real price of a loan for a borrower. It includes not only the interest rate, but also commissions, insurance and other mandatory payments. This indicator is used so that the client can see the actual overpayment on the loan.
The average term of consumer loans is now about 27 months, according to data from the United Credit Bureau (OKB). If the loan is taken at 31% per annum, the overpayment can reach about 40% of the initial amount.
At the same time, the profitability of deposits decreases much faster, it follows from the data of Finuslug. Deposit rates for a period of three to 12 months are currently at about 13.6% per annum, which is almost 2 percentage points less than the key one. The yield on savings accounts in most banks has already dropped below 10%.
— When the key interest rate is lowered, the movement of consumer loan rates is always delayed, — said Dmitry Dolzhenko, a representative of Ingo Bank.
Regulation by the Central Bank plays a role. UCS limits are set with a delay, explained Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. For example, the limits for the first quarter of 2026 were calculated based on data from the third quarter of 2025, when the key rate was at its highest. Until the regulator recalculates these parameters, banks cannot sharply reduce rates.
In addition, the cost of loans is influenced by the structure of liabilities, Denis Astafyev added. Some of the deposits were attracted during the peak rates at 18-20% per annum, and these expensive resources still remain on the balance sheets. As long as banks continue to service such obligations, loan rates cannot decrease quickly, otherwise financial institutions risk losing revenue.
At the same time, the banks' net interest margin exceeded 5% at the end of 2025, the highest level in recent years, according to the Central Bank. This means that banks receive significantly more income on loans than they pay on deposits. For comparison, in European countries the indicator is usually at the level of 1-2%, and in the USA it is about 2.5–3.5%.
How much will rates decrease by the end of the year
High interest rates are largely related to the growing risks in retail lending. In 2025, problems with loans issued earlier to borrowers with low credit experience began to appear, said Dmitry Gritskevich, Head of Banking and Financial Market Analysis at PSB. As a result, the share of problem debt rose to 13.2% in January 2026, compared with about 9% in 2024.
The increase in delinquency directly affects the cost of new loans, the PSB representative added. Banks are putting these risks into rates and at the same time tightening their approaches to issuing loans. This leads to a decrease in the number of approvals and to the fact that interest rates on loans decrease more slowly than the key one.
The actual cost of the loan is also affected by insurance. The real interest rate is usually higher than the interest rate, because most loans are issued with a guarantee, explained Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Most often, such policies are sold through insurance companies affiliated with banks.
At the same time, in 2025, such services rose in price by about 14%, and many banks increased service fees, the expert said. All this automatically increases the total cost of the loan for the borrower.
Nevertheless, the rates will gradually begin to decrease. The lower the yield on deposits becomes, the cheaper the funds raised are for banks, which means that credit rates may decrease in a few months, Natalia Milchakova noted. This process usually takes about 3-6 months — the bulk of deposits are currently being processed for this period.
The central Bank may continue to reduce the key rate in the coming months, said Anna Zemlyanova, chief analyst at Sovcombank. According to her estimates, it may decrease to about 12% by the end of the year, and after that, consumer loan rates will gradually decrease.
— The real reduction in the cost of consumer loans will be more noticeable in the second half of 2026, - Denis Astafyev explained.
At the same time, the key rate may return to a neutral level of about 7.5–8.5% by 2027, Natalia Milchakova recalled. There is a high probability that the Central Bank will stay at this level for a long time. In this case, bank loan rates may be approximately in the range of 9-12%, and the CPI — at the level of about 11-15%.
Even with the Central Bank's neutral interest rate, interest on loans is likely to remain in double digits, Denis Astafyev confirmed. For example, in 2021, with a key 7.5%, loans were issued at about 12-16% per annum, and their CAP reached 16-20%. Since then, banks' credit risks and expenses have increased, which does not contribute to reducing their cost.
Nevertheless, the market situation may gradually improve in the near future, said Dmitry Gritskevich from PSB. The share of loan delinquencies is likely to start decreasing, which will allow banks to reduce loan rates more actively in the second half of the year.
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