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- Eastern translation: is the United States able to assemble a coalition to control the Strait of Hormuz
Eastern translation: is the United States able to assemble a coalition to control the Strait of Hormuz
Washington will not be able to involve its allies in escorting oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. And the American partners themselves will limit themselves to technical support and symbolic assistance. Earlier, Donald Trump called on countries that depend on oil from the Middle East to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the United States intensified attacks on the island of Kharq, the "energy heart" of Iran. However, Tehran still has a margin of safety for resistance, and the United States is gradually beginning to realize that the White House has lost control of the situation.
Why is the US bombing Iran's Kharq Island
The American and Israeli strikes on Iran have been going on for more than two weeks. Washington decided to focus its efforts on the island of Kharq in the Persian Gulf. According to the command of the US Armed Forces, 90 military facilities were attacked, including naval mine depots and missile storage bunkers. At the same time, the oil industry facilities of the Islamic Republic located there were not affected, the US military said.
Kharq Island is considered the "energy heart" of Iran: more than 60% (up to 90%, according to US estimates) of Iranian oil exported through shadow trade is concentrated here. In addition, some of the oil products from the Mainland are also used for the domestic needs of the country. Therefore, attacks on this area, from the point of view of the United States, should undermine Iran's economic stability, Leonid Tsukanov, an orientalist and consultant at the PIR Center, explained to Izvestia.
"Washington previously considered the possibility of landing a Marine expeditionary force on the island in order to create leverage on Tehran and its allies, including forcing them to stop shelling and blockading the Strait of Hormuz," the expert recalled.
White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt claims that during the fighting since February 28, the United States has sunk over 65 Iranian warships and attacked more than 6,000 targets in the Islamic Republic. According to her, since the beginning of the military operation, the number of retaliatory missile launches by Tehran has decreased by 90%, and the possibility of using drones for attacks has decreased by 95%.
Iran, however, has not stopped retaliatory strikes against American military installations in the region. The next target was the US forces stationed at the Al-Dhafra base in the UAE. In the Islamic Republic, work continues on the restoration of destroyed social facilities. On March 12, the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations delivered 13 tons of medicines by plane to residents of Iran in the Azerbaijani city of Lenkoran. The aid was sent to the republic by trucks.
The Shiite Hezbollah movement is trying to provide military support to Iran, which, according to media reports, launched another massive missile attack on the Israeli military near the border village of Adeisi in southern Lebanon. The Semafor portal reported that Israeli stocks of interceptors have been depleted to a critical level. However, Israel also does not reduce the intensity of attacks on targets in Iran and Lebanon.
Iran continues to use an asymmetric warfare strategy aimed at maximizing the enemy's weaknesses, delaying time, causing irreparable damage to military and civilian infrastructure, and undermining allied relations between the United States and its key partners. The most desirable scenario for Tehran is to make it possible for regional states to turn away from cooperation with the United States towards cooperation without the participation of external actors, Grigory Lukyanov, an employee of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and an expert at the Valdai Club, emphasized in an interview with Izvestia.
Despite the damage suffered, Iran still has the resources to resist, Leonid Tsukanov believes. The power vertical is stable, and only a part of the main proxy groups have joined the battle.
— The initial forecast framework of the operation, which gave from several days to two weeks for the surrender of Iran, apparently did not materialize. The Americans' planned budget has also been exceeded several times," the orientalist emphasized.
According to him, the United States has two options: either launch a full-fledged campaign with a ground element (similar to the Iraqi one), which risks prolonging the conflict for a long time, or end the operation by declaring symbolic victories.
The deadlock in the situation is already recognized in Washington. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, following closed briefings by the Pentagon and the White House, said that the Trump administration had grossly miscalculated Iran's capabilities and lost control of the military operation.
Will the United States create a coalition to protect the Strait of Hormuz
Meanwhile, Washington is making considerable diplomatic efforts to stabilize the global oil market and protect supplies. To do this, the U.S. Treasury Department lifted sanctions for 30 days on operations selling oil and petroleum products from the Russian Federation loaded onto ships before March 12. As soon as prices in the energy market stabilize, Washington will return anti-Russian restrictions, Donald Trump promised. Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude oil reached $103 per barrel on March 15, compared to $72 on February 27.
The American leader claims that several countries are allegedly ready to take part in ensuring security in the Strait of Hormuz. He expressed hope that such measures would be taken, in particular, by the United Kingdom, China, South Korea, France and Japan.
"We will carefully clear the strait, and we are convinced that other countries that are experiencing difficulties and, in some cases, are unable to obtain oil will join us," the US president said.
In London, this proposal seems to be viewed favorably. The British Ministry of Defense is exploring the possibility of using mine-search drones to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, The Sunday Times newspaper reported, citing a source. Seoul is considering sending ships, but Japan is still in doubt because of the "big obstacles." Only Paris officially rejected the possibility of its ships participating in navigation through the Strait. China, on the other hand, intends to seek the restoration of supplies through de-escalation of tensions. The parties to the conflict in the Middle East must immediately cease hostilities, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said earlier.
"No one among the regional and global partners of the United States, except Israel, supported the adventure aimed at intervening militarily in Iran's internal affairs," Grigory Lukyanov stressed. — And Donald Trump's actions in these conditions are situational, reactionary, aimed at "saving" this situation — he is trying to share the damage from these actions with someone.
At the same time, the American leader has already dismissed Ukraine's offers to help in the fight against Iranian drones, which Zelensky had previously made.
—The last person we need help from is Zelensky," said Donald Trump.
The US president also said he was surprised by the reluctance of the head of the Kiev regime to conclude a deal. Earlier, the Republican called Zelensky an "obstacle to peace" with Russia. However, the conflict in the Middle East is increasingly distracting Washington's attention, so Trump is gradually losing interest in negotiations, writes FT.
The prospects for the next round of negotiations are still vague - there is still no specific date. The previous stage in the Russia-USA-Ukraine format was held on February 17-18 in Geneva. Europe is also trying to join the negotiations. The French representative even came to Russia for contacts on Ukraine, but this meeting did not yield "positive results," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Financial Times.
Kiev is trying in every possible way to return to the center of attention of world politicians and prove its capability by launching missile strikes on the border regions of the Russian Federation. On March 10, Ukrainian Armed Forces militants launched Storm Shadow missiles at Bryansk. The death toll as a result of the cynical attack on the civilian population has increased to eight people, 47 more were injured. The Russian Investigative Committee recognized the incident as a terrorist act. Drone attacks are also continuing: for example, on March 15, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that during the day the military shot down 605 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs. It is obvious that by such means the Kiev regime clearly seeks to increase the degree of conflict and hinder the negotiation process.
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