Housing surge: weak demand forced developers to make more discounts
In the Russian market of new buildings, the number of discount offers increased 1.5 times compared to last year, analysts said. The share of such lots reached 75%, and the average benefit for buyers in February 2026 was about 3.6 million rubles. However, such offers are often valid only under certain, often difficult conditions. About the pitfalls of discounts from the developer, see the Izvestia article.
Why do developers make discounts
The average savings for buyers (3.6 million rubles) is equivalent to 8-10% of the cost of a typical two-room apartment in Moscow, said Ilya Kolunov, CEO of the Sadovoye Koltso Group of companies. The increase in discounts is directly related to the decrease in demand at the end of winter, the expert believes. The main reason is that a significant part of buyers realized the deferred demand in November-January due to information about the tightening of family mortgage conditions.
Demand in the primary housing market in Russia is now 25-30% lower than in the same period last year, said Sergey Zaitsev, sales director of the federal company Etagi.
— Naturally, this pushes developers to strengthen demand stimulation mechanisms, — he confirmed.
The growing number of discounts in the primary market is a direct consequence of the cooling demand after the change in mortgage conditions, says Rigina Gordeeva, founder of the Bezfilter real estate agency. In mid—2024, a massive preferential mortgage was completed, and market rates in 2025 and early 2026 remained at about 20%, which severely limited the possibilities of buyers.
"As a result, we saw a noticeable correction in demand in early 2026," she said. — For example, in Moscow in January, about 5.5 thousand equity participation agreements were registered, and in February the number of transactions decreased to about 3.8–3.9 thousand. A similar dynamic is observed to one degree or another in most major cities of Russia.
To support sales, developers actively use various marketing tools, Rigina Gordeeva noted.
"If we talk about segments, the most noticeable discount practice is in the business and premium class segments," she added.
The increase in discount offers in the new building market is largely due not only to a decrease in demand, but also to differences in the pricing policies of the developers themselves, said Tatiana Shibanova, Sales Director at Asterus.
— The financial model of projects for most developers is similar in many ways, but the approach to pricing may differ, — she noted. — For some companies, the discount is actually already included in the base price on the website, for others, a higher price is initially published, after which the buyer is offered a discount as part of promotions or negotiations.
Most of the current discounts are a discount that can be obtained by paying 100% with your own funds or using a market mortgage, said Natalia Ryzhkina, head of the analytical service of the aggregator of new buildings Redcat.
— There are few such customers, and they can count on the most interesting conditions: discounts can reach up to 35-40% and even up to 50%, — she said. — In addition to discounts, financial instruments are now being actively used to regulate sales — subsidized rates in combination with preferential programs and market mortgages, as well as various installment payment algorithms.
What is hidden behind discounts from developers
Discounts are often valid only under certain conditions, for example, when paying in full, using a specific mortgage program or buying certain apartments, said Alexey Artoshin, commercial director of Glavstroy Regions.
"Promotions often apply to lots with less popular characteristics," he pointed out.
In addition to direct discounting, developers widely use other mechanisms: long-term installments, subsidizing mortgage rates, trade-in, when a buyer is helped to sell a secondary apartment, shares with a fixed rate for several years or with a minimum down payment, Rigina Gordeeva added.
"But in advertising, this figure is often presented as a universal discount for all customers, the rest is indicated in small print," the expert explained. — In practice, most people buy an apartment either with a mortgage or on a long-term installment plan. And in this case, the real discount may be two to three times less.
Another popular formulation — "installments without cost increase" — is only formally correct. The price of an apartment does not increase during the payment process, but it is initially higher than the price when buying at a discount for cash.
— That is, if we compare with the option of full payment, the installment plan actually turns into a hidden margin, and not into a financial benefit, — Rigina Gordeeva explained. — In fact, in this way, developers collect all possible demand at once: both buyers with cash and those who can pay gradually.
The reason why developers are so generous is not concern for the buyer, but an attempt to get rid of unsold leftovers, added Valery Tumin, Director of Russian and CIS Markets at Pham Properties.
— A common technique is to raise the base price in advance by the amount of a future "promotion": the discount eats up the previous price increase and leaves real savings close to zero, — he said. — Finally, illiquid lots are most often offered at the most generous discounts — above 15%: lower and upper floors, inconvenient layouts, objects with a postponed deadline.
According to the Ministry of Construction, by the end of 2025, the commissioning dates have shifted 38 million square meters. The number of housing under construction is almost a third of the market.
Large discounts of 15-20% and above can signal financial problems for the company: a high debt burden, lack of funds to continue construction, and bankruptcy risks, said Ilya Vasilchuk, a trial lawyer and expert on the security of electronic transactions and real estate transactions.
— To reduce the risks, it is worth studying the financial stability, the history of previous projects, the presence of litigation by the developer, — said the lawyer. — You should also monitor the price dynamics in the project of interest and compare it with others in the area. Personally inspect the territory, the construction site, check the reviews of shareholders.
What awaits the new building market
The price reduction reduces the weighted average cost per square meter and negatively affects the financial model of projects, Ilya Kolunov believes.
—Weak demand and, as a result, insufficient filling of escrow accounts can lead to even more significant losses," the expert added. — In the future, it will lead to a violation of the bank's covenants (mandatory terms of the loan agreement. — Ed.), who provided the project financing.
At the same time, a significant part of potential buyers who postponed the deal due to limited financial opportunities remains on the market, the expert clarifies. They closely monitor price trends, so discounts remain one of the most effective ways to attract their attention.
An active discount policy reduces the marginality of projects in the face of rising construction costs, said Svyatoslav Ivanov, head of the Sales Department at Rasvetai Group of Companies.
"For companies with a high debt burden, this creates additional risks, which raises the issue of choosing a developer with a proven reputation and stable financial position," he said.
By the end of the year, much will depend on the same factors as now: the rate of reduction in the key interest rate, as well as the availability of preferential mortgage programs and the revival of the market as a whole, believes Vladimir Kolesnikov, director of the residential real estate sales unit at A101 Group.
"If the key interest rate decreases rapidly enough and demand starts to grow, including due to the flow of funds from bank deposits to the real estate sector, the volume of special offers and their average size will decrease," he said.
There are no prerequisites for a collapse in prices, believes Svyatoslav Ivanov. Developers adapt to the situation by reducing the output of new projects, which limits supply. A scenario is likely in which nominal prices will show an increase within the limits of inflation, but real transaction prices will remain at the current level.
According to Sergey Zaitsev, the new building market will be in a state of transformation and lack of demand at least until April. Then consumer activity will gradually begin to recover, further reduction in market mortgage rates may fuel demand, as well as a decision to further limit family mortgages in terms of applying differentiated rates.
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