Waiting mode: analysts consider the most likely end of the war in the Middle East in the summer

The most likely scenario assumes that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and its consequences will last at least until the summer. This is the opinion of the analysts of the largest brokerage companies interviewed by Izvestia. In this case, oil prices may fluctuate in the range of $90-110 per barrel, which will support the shares of oil companies and with them the entire Russian stock market. With such a development, the Moscow Exchange index is able to gain a foothold around the 3 thousand point mark. However, in the long term, when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal and oil infrastructure facilities are restored, the premium in shares of the Russian energy sector may decrease. About which papers should be preferred over a long horizon, see the Izvestia article.

Scenario 1: if the aggravation ends in the next few weeks

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which began on February 28, is primarily reflected in oil prices. On the morning of March 12, the price of Brent on the ICE exchange exceeded $100 per barrel. There are two reasons: firstly, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's raw materials supplies pass, is virtually paralyzed. Secondly, attacks on the energy infrastructure of countries embroiled in conflict are exacerbating the situation: the Middle East accounts for about a quarter of global oil production.

Rising prices for raw materials are beneficial for the Russian Federation. In particular, due to supply restrictions, the discount on Russian oil, which had previously increased against the background of sanctions, is decreasing. According to Reuters, Russian energy resources are already being sold for about $70 per barrel. In addition, the United States allowed India to purchase raw materials from Russia for a month and removed energy resources loaded into tankers before March 12 from sanctions.

Photo: TASS/Egor Aleev

These factors have already supported the Russian oil and gas sector. Since the beginning of March, shares of Rosneft and Tatneft have been gaining about 25%, NOVATEK's securities about 15%, and Gazprom's about 10%.

However, if the conflict ends in the coming weeks and its completion does not lead, for example, to a decrease in exports from Iran, then Brent prices may quickly return to $65-70 per barrel, and shares of Russian oil companies will decline by 10-15%, said Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam.

According to him, production in the Middle East is quite easy to recover after a short-term forced decline, and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz for the month as a whole can be compensated by the release of reserves. At the same time, most of the Persian Gulf countries had reserve production capacities before the conflict, which were not used due to the OPEC+ deal.

— If the conflict is resolved quickly, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil and metal prices will collapse sharply, leading to speculative sales. Now the shares of oil and gas companies have been in the growth leaders since the beginning of March, adding up to 30%, and with de—escalation they will quickly become the leaders of the decline," warned Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Anna Selina

According to his forecast, in this case, the Moscow Exchange index may temporarily return to the limits of the winter sideways trend — 2750-2800 points.

However, analysts interviewed by Izvestia consider this scenario to be the least likely.

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Scenario 2: if escalation persists until summer

Experts call de—escalation within a few months in the summer of 2026 the most likely scenario for the development of events in the Middle East. At the same time, a number of critically important facilities will suffer, supply routes will lengthen, the cost of freight and ship insurance will increase, and oil prices will remain in the range of $90-110 per barrel, believes Alexander Bakhtin, an investment strategist at Garda Capital.

— The beneficiaries — the heavyweight shares of oil and gas companies — can easily bring the Moscow Exchange index to a round 3,000 points. Especially if the ruble weakens, and there is nowhere else to go, given the expected reduction in the key rate and the tightening of the budget rule," he predicted.

On the other hand, according to him, consistently high energy prices may begin to translate into a course from the middle of spring, and this will curb the pace of devaluation of the national currency. In this case, the dollar may cost 81-82 rubles by the summer. And in such circumstances, gold will remain sideways in the range of $5,400-5,000 per ounce, added Mikhail Zeltser from BCS World Investments.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Sergey Lantyukhov

In this scenario, special attention should be paid to gas companies, in particular NOVATEK, says Ivan Efanov, an analyst at Cifra Broker. He explained that if maneuvers by Western countries are still possible in the oil market — the release of reserves, verbal interventions or partial lifting of sanctions from Russia — then it is more difficult to do this with gas.

— Qatar's share in global LNG sales is about 20%. This could be a positive prospect for NOVATEK if such large volumes leave the market for a long time. The struggle for gas between the European and Asian markets will begin," the expert reminded.

In addition, according to him, in the long term, after the normalization of the situation and lower oil prices, it is possible to reverse the migration of capital from the oil sector to companies with stable fundamentals, such as Sberbank, X 5, Yandex and others. As a result, their quotes may rise at the expense of energy companies.

Scenario 3: a six-month escalation and global inflation

If the escalation of the conflict does not subside in the next six months — by autumn — it will become a global energy shock, Ivan Efanov said. According to Finam, this is the only way the Moscow Exchange index can rise to 3120-3250 points. Moreover, due to the expected normalization of monetary policy, the stock market may add about 5-7% more in the coming months and reach 3300-3450 points.

Photo: REUTERS/Liesa Johannssen

— The main growth will be in the oil and gas sector, but it will not be as impressive as before. In our opinion, the quotes already indicate that oil will remain above $80 per barrel in the near future," said Ivan Efanov.

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How likely is such a course of events and what consequences can it lead to?

At the same time, the risks of global inflation remain, which will affect the Russian Federation as well. Oil is included in the cost of most goods through logistics, production of plastics, fertilizers and energy, the expert warned. Import inflation could enter the economy, which could lengthen the rate-cutting cycle and force the Bank of Russia to tighten policy, negatively affecting the economy and heavily indebted companies.

In such conditions, the benchmark for gold is to update historical highs above $5,600, concluded BCS World of Investments. Analysts estimate the probability of this scenario to be average.