Assessment tracking: The IAEA wants to gain access to Iran's nuclear facilities

The damage to the nuclear program was not the main reason for the start of the US and Israeli operation against Iran, the calculation was for a change of power in the country, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. At the same time, Moscow has no data on Tehran's development of weapons of mass destruction, Rosatom CEO Alexei Likhachev said on March 13 at a meeting with the IAEA Director General. During his visit to Moscow, Rafael Grossi called for the resumption of practical inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities and the development of a long-term monitoring mechanism. At the same time, the IAEA and the Russian side agree that the confrontation should be transferred to the diplomatic plane. A separate point of discussion was the safety of the Bushehr NPP, where Russian specialists continue to work.

The situation at the Bushehr NPP

On March 13, Rosatom CEO Alexei Likhachev and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi met in Moscow. Representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, Rosgvardiya and Rostechnadzor also participated in the negotiations. Such an expanded composition was related to the discussion of the Zaporizhia NPP issue, but a separate emphasis was placed on the topic of Iran. Following the talks, both the Russian side and the IAEA stressed the need for a peaceful settlement of the conflict.

"We call for the situation to return to negotiations so that we can <...> resume our inspections in practice,— Grossi stressed.

As the head of the IAEA noted, the problem with Iran's nuclear program was that in recent years, the agency's capabilities to inspect Iran's nuclear infrastructure have been severely limited. That is why it could not give exhaustive guarantees on all parameters of the program. Likhachev, for his part, stressed that Moscow has no data on Tehran's development of nuclear weapons.

One of the key topics of the talks was the safety of the Bushehr NPP, where, despite the partial evacuation of personnel, Russian specialists continue to work. On February 27, children and some family members of employees were taken out of Iran, and then another stage of evacuation of employees was completed. Currently, more than 450 people remain on the site. According to Likhachev, large-scale work has been stopped, but the existing and under construction stations remain too complex objects to simply be abandoned without compromising safety and the project itself.

"As long as the situation allows, we will be present at the site and do everything to ensure that the current power unit operates normally, and the station under construction retains the potential for the fastest possible restart as a construction project," Likhachev said.

During the negotiations with Grossi, the Russian side asked the agency to join in ensuring the "absolute safety" of both the station itself, the site of the new units and Russian personnel. On March 3, Rosatom warned that there was a threat to the Bushehr NPP, as explosions could be heard kilometers from the plant's protection line.

Despite multiple strikes on the nuclear infrastructure and serious damage to the uranium enrichment plant in Isfahan, Tehran does not intend to abandon its plans to develop a civilian nuclear program, orientalist Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia.

"Of course, the damage suffered during the conflict weakened Iran's position, including due to the deaths of some of Iran's leading nuclear scientists over the past year, but it did not undermine the country's ambitions in this area," he said.

Tsukanov added that official Tehran positions nuclear energy as an element of "national revival" and is likely to continue to give it priority.

What is happening with Iran's nuclear program

Publicly, the reason for the start of the operation by the United States and Israel was precisely the Iranian nuclear program, namely the need to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. According to the IAEA, as of mid-June 2025, Iran had 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. According to the agency's criteria, this volume, subject to further enrichment, would be enough for 10 nuclear warheads.

But if Tehran really needed nuclear weapons, it would have followed this path a long time ago, says Murad Sadigzade, president of the Center for Middle East Studies. But Iran was not interested in this, because it understood: This will lead to even greater isolation, increased sanctions pressure and further deterioration of his position.

— If we talk about the current state of the Iranian nuclear program, it suffered greatly during the twelve-day war of 2025 and the current aggression by Israel and the United States. I would not say that it was completely destroyed, but the impact was extremely serious, and the Iranians, in fact, will have to rebuild a lot almost from scratch," the expert stressed.

According to him, the nuclear program was not the main reason for the start of the operation. The United States and Israel were interested in a change of power in Tehran so that Iran would, in fact, become a second Venezuela, a more accommodating state whose resources could be used in its own interests, Murad Sadigzade noted.

Tsukanov expressed a similar opinion. Iran has repeatedly offered flexible options to increase the transparency of its nuclear program, but they have been met with criticism. The real goal of the US—Israel coalition is to change and weaken the Iranian ruling vertical as much as possible, he concluded.

Therefore, it is not surprising that Israel and the United States have increasingly begun to talk not only about the nuclear threat, but also about the political future of the Islamic Republic itself. The coalition even went to an unprecedented measure — the removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This did not lead to the expected result: the power inside the country did not crumble, and the council of experts chose a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a press conference on March 12 expressed doubt about the Iranians' ability to overthrow the regime from within.

— I cannot say with certainty that the people of Iran will overthrow the regime. Eventually, the regime falls apart from the inside — that's how it usually happens. But we can definitely help, and we are helping. We told them that help was on the way," he said.

Meanwhile, the conflict continues, despite Donald Trump's statements that the war is supposedly nearing an end. Back on March 11, the American president said that the United States had already won, and there was "practically nothing left" in Iran in the form of targets for strikes. At the same time, as of March 13, there are no public signals that the parties are ready to stop mutual strikes. They are still heading for escalation.

Meanwhile, increased external pressure provokes an increased burden on internal security systems, opening a "window of opportunity" for opponents of official Tehran, whether they are opposition supporters in exile, national minorities or representatives of factions dissatisfied with the current alignment of political forces, Tsukanov stressed.

— So far, Iran seems to be able to control the internal situation, including by using the mobilization resources of the pro-government part of society. However, if the conflict continues to remain in the same framework, the risk of Iran rocking from within will increase," he believes.

Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth claims that Iran has already lost 90% of its missile potential, and the use of kamikaze drones has decreased by 95%. The Iranian side insists on its readiness to continue resistance.

Despite the strikes on the military infrastructure, there are no signs of an immediate political breakdown in Tehran yet. The Iranian opposition abroad also recognizes that bombing the country by itself does not guarantee regime change. However, the effect for the region is already clear: the previous security system in the Middle East has failed.

Even with attacks on the Persian Gulf countries, the United States is not able to guarantee them full protection, despite the expensive weapons that have been sold for decades to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and other states, Sadigzade believes. Therefore, the countries of the region will have to gradually build an independent security architecture, and not just look for protection on the side, he concluded.