Whether it will happen again: Iran has threatened oil for $200
Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the price of oil has exceeded $ 100 per barrel. And, as Tehran warned, this is not the limit: an increase to 200 dollars is possible. The United States and the International Energy Agency are already preparing emergency measures to cool down the oil rally. Analysts point out that a prolonged period of such high prices can cause a collapse in the global energy market. However, Iran's ability to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for a long time is limited. Izvestia found out which scenario is most likely, and what the United States, Europe and Russia are preparing for.
Updates the highs
The price of Brent crude oil on the ICE exchange on the morning of March 12 exceeded the mark of $ 100 per barrel. This rally is a consequence of the situation in the Middle East: shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil supplies pass, is paralyzed.
As warned in Tehran, this is not the limit. Oil prices could soar to $200 if the US and Israeli attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure continue. This was stated by the official representative of the Iranian central headquarters of Khatam al-Anbiya.
Earlier, Ebrahim Zolfagari, a representative of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said that oil would rise above $ 200 per barrel with the continuation of hostilities.
The scenario is really shocking.
— The price of $ 200 is capable of provoking a stagflationary shock at the level of the 1970s. Global demand may fall by 2-3 million barrels per day after such a jump. The transportation costs of airlines and cargo transportation operators will increase 2-3 times, which will be shifted to the cost of food. It is possible to switch to coal and accelerate the introduction of renewable energy, but at the moment it will not save from the shortage of diesel and fuel oil," says Viktor Yemchenko, head of the NPB Markets training center.
Europe can't stand it
This does not bode well for Europe, which imports about 90% of its oil and 80% of its gas. The situation for the EU is also complicated by the fact that 20% of all global supplies of liquefied natural gas, mainly Qatari, go through Hormuz. Qatar is the second largest LNG supplier in the European Union after the United States.
— This means that in an extreme price scenario, Europe gets a double blow: both for oil and gas. High energy prices inevitably imply weak economic growth, tighter monetary policy, and a new round of talk about deindustrialization in energy-intensive industries," warns Evgeny Shatov, partner at Capital Lab.
The reserves will last for 2-3 months and, with a protracted crisis, the EU will face a deep recession and industrial recession. Inflation may rise by 1.5–2%, warns Viktor Yemchenko.
The United States, as a major producer of oil and gas, is, of course, more resilient. In addition, Trump announced the release of 172 million barrels of the strategic oil reserve. In total, the International Energy Agency has agreed on a plan to release 400 million barrels of oil.
However, the risks are also obvious for the United States. For the American economy, such a price spike would mean soaring gasoline prices and accelerating inflation, as well as rising interest rates. All of this is a major political blow to the Trump administration.
In addition, the release of reserves is a temporary measure, it can temporarily reduce oil prices. Such reserves simply do not exist to use them to bring down oil prices for so long. The price will fall only when the Strait of Hormuz opens, emphasizes Yan Pinchuk, Deputy head of the WhiteBird Exchange Trading department.
It's hard to hold on
In the end, as analysts explain, an extreme price forecast is still not a baseline.
For the price of Brent to really go to the level of $ 200, it takes not just an exchange of blows, but a large-scale and sustained disruption of supplies from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, such a scenario would require a broad escalation of the level, suggesting a full-fledged war with tanker supplies and logistics, Shatov believes.
In addition, Iran's own margin of safety is limited: it will not be able to hold the strait for months.
— It can pose a threat to navigation and increase insurance risks, but it is extremely difficult to physically keep Hormuz closed for a long time. First of all, it will also affect his own interests. Secondly, a military and financial coalition of pressure is rapidly forming against him. Thirdly, the closure of the strait is not only a matter of missiles, but also a matter of constant monitoring, mine warfare, escorting ships and countering the United States and its allies," the analyst explains.
That's not bad
Thus, experts say, a short-term price jump to $ 200, if possible, will not last long. However, for the price range of 100-130 dollars, the current situation — disruption of logistics, rising insurance premiums and market panic — is quite favorable.
In a positive scenario, the unblocking of shipping in Hormuz in the coming weeks, in a moderate scenario, supplies will recover within two months. In a negative scenario, things can drag on for 6-8 months.
For Russia, the whole situation still has short-term benefits for export revenue, and the budget will receive more oil and gas revenues.
— This is especially important because in the budget parameters for 2026, the Ministry of Finance estimated the average Urals price at about $59 per barrel, and estimated the share of oil and gas revenues at about 22% of federal revenues. If the actual price turns out to be noticeably higher, it improves the fiscal picture, reduces pressure on the deficit and gives more space for spending or replenishing reserves," explains Shatov.
Expensive oil, of course, will support the ruble. Finally, the disruption of supplies from the Persian Gulf is heating up demand for Russian oil from Asia, in particular, Russia's current largest customers, India and China. The latter were afraid to increase purchases due to the risks of secondary sanctions. Now the situation has changed for the better.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
