The expert allowed the oil price to rise to $ 115 due to the conflict in the Middle East

If the current level of tension in the Middle East persists, oil may trade in the range of $95-115 per barrel in the coming weeks. At the same time, further price increases will be possible only in the event of a significant deterioration in the situation in the region. Alexander Baryshnikov, the manager of the Mining fund of the Record Capital Management Company, told Izvestia on March 12.

According to him, the market perceives statements by US President Donald Trump about the possible imminent end of the conflict with caution. In his opinion, frequent changes in rhetoric and the absence of obvious signs of de-escalation reduce investor confidence in such signals.

"Keeping oil prices above $100 in the short term will be determined by one factor — the status of the Strait of Hormuz. While it is blocked, any release of reserves by the IEA is only a temporary solution: 400 million barrels cover about 25 days of falling supply, no more," the expert said.

He noted that the $125-135 zone will become the next serious price barrier and can be reached by hitting the oil infrastructure of the Persian Gulf countries or completely blocking alternative supply routes. In the event of a large-scale escalation of the conflict, theoretically, an increase in prices to around $200 per barrel is not excluded.

Baryshnikov also pointed out that the high cost of oil has a noticeable impact on the Russian economy. According to him, at a Brent price of about $98-100, Russian Urals crude, which is traditionally traded at a discount of $10-15, may be in the range of $83-90 per barrel.

"For Russia, every dollar above $60 actually means an additional budget premium. At current prices, this may help reduce the budget deficit in the coming months," he stressed.

Charged water: will Iran mine the Strait of Hormuz

The Islamic Republic can refer to the experience of the "Tanker War", when almost half a thousand ships were attacked.

The press service of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on March 11 that Iran would not allow any oil tankers related to the United States and its allies to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC also reported that an Israeli-owned ship flying the Liberian flag was attacked in the morning after ignoring warnings. Later, the container ship Mayuree Naree, which also tried to illegally pass through the strait, came under fire.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on March 9 that oil production, which is tied to the Strait of Hormuz, risks stopping completely in the coming month. The Russian leader noted that the storage facilities in the region are already being filled with oil that cannot be exported, and the route itself is actually closed.

All important news is on the Izvestia channel in the MAX messenger.