Take up the defense: the war with Iran has already cost every American $800
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has already added about $800 to the national debt for each American taxpayer, Izvestia estimates. In just 12 days of the war, US liabilities increased by $133 billion and approached $39 trillion. The reason is the sharp increase in military spending and the widening budget deficit. If the operation drags on for 100 days, as the Pentagon admits, the national debt may exceed $40 trillion, experts say. For Americans, this means more expensive mortgages, loans and gasoline, and for the global economy, the risk of accelerating inflation and slowing GDP growth. How the conflict may affect the Fed's rate and what it means for investors is in the Izvestia article.
How the US national debt is growing due to the conflict in the Middle East
The military operation against Iran, which began on February 28, has dramatically increased Washington's costs: according to international experts, it costs the United States $1-3 billion per day. Thus, during the 12 days of the conflict — as of March 11 — the costs could amount to $ 12-36 billion.
Operation Epic Fury requires about $890 million per day, Denis Astafyev, founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, said, citing estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. In the first 100 hours of combat, the costs exceeded $3.7 billion. At the same time, the Pentagon is preparing a request for $50 billion in emergency funding to replenish stocks of missiles and weapons.
"These costs are superimposed on the structural budget deficit, which the Congressional Budget Office estimated at $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2026, whereas now — in the first five months of fiscal year 2026 (October – February) — the shortfall has already exceeded $1 trillion," the expert noted.
Unplanned military spending accelerates debt growth, said Andrei Barkhota, PhD in Economics. According to him, some of the weapons have already been transferred to the region, and corporations (for example, Lockheed Martin) are receiving new orders for the production of weapons systems.
Even with a large defense budget, expenditures may require an increase, says Tatyana Belyanchikova, Associate professor of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. According to her, the debt dynamics are affected not only by the military operation itself. Firstly, in order to maintain liquidity, the Fed is actively buying government bonds, as some foreign investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude. Secondly, an increase in debt automatically increases the cost of servicing it. In addition, there is a risk of additional costs — for example, if the authorities have to refund illegally collected duties and pay fines.
Debt servicing has approached 1 trillion and has become one of the fastest growing budget expenditure items, said Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam IC.
At the same time, the growth rate of debt is accelerating. In 2024, it increased by about $185 billion per month, and in 2025 - by $191 billion, said Yuri Ichkitidze, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. The main reason is the continuing budget deficit, reinforced by tax cuts while maintaining social spending.
The average rate on U.S. market debt now stands at about 3.4% per annum, about five times higher than five years ago, Denis Astafyev added. This means that each new trillion borrowings costs the budget about $20-25 billion more per year.
How much will the United States spend on the conflict with Iran
Earlier, Politico, citing a Pentagon document, reported that the United States was planning a military operation against Iran for at least 100 days. Representatives of the Central Command of the US Armed Forces asked the leadership of the department to send additional intelligence personnel to the headquarters in Tampa (Florida) to support the operation at least until September.
If the conflict lasts more than three months, the US national debt may increase by another $600-800 billion, says Yaroslav Kabakov from Finam. Taking into account additional military spending, the total increase could reach $700-900 billion, which would bring the total debt to $39.5–40 trillion and could increase the annual deficit above $2 trillion. According to the expert, this will require more active placement of treasury bonds and increase pressure on the debt market through rising yields.
100 days of war can cost America from $100 billion to $300 billion, said Yuri Ichkitidze of Freedom Finance Global. According to the analyst, this will increase the average monthly debt growth by 16-49% relative to the current pace.
At the current growth rate, the debt could increase by about $1.2 trillion in 100 days, estimates Denis Astafyev of SharesPro. This is an additional $7-8 thousand for each of the approximately 164 million American taxpayers.
If the conflict drags on for several months, the total costs can reach $500-600 billion, said Andrei Barkhota, PhD in Economics. According to him, this is a significant burden for the budget, which will increase the deficit and increase the risks to financial stability. However, much will depend on the outcome of the confrontation: if Washington manages to achieve its goals, the economic effect of victory can theoretically offset some of the costs, the expert added.
What is the danger of the growth of the US national debt for the global economy?
The total debt burden already looks impressive: about $237,000 per person is more than the average cost of a house in the United States, said Denis Astafyev of SharesPro.
According to him, for the average American, the growth of debt is felt through several channels. High interest rates make mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt more expensive. The oil factor creates additional pressure: since the beginning of hostilities, gasoline prices in the United States have increased by more than 17%, which is pushing up inflation, which is already not falling below the target 2%.
— The Fed is caught between inflationary pressures and the political demand to lower interest rates. In such a situation, tax increases cannot be ruled out in the medium term: the budget cannot indefinitely cover the deficit through new borrowings," the expert stressed.
These processes are also reflected in the global economy. An increase in the supply of US bonds and an increase in their yields are tightening financial conditions around the world: This attracts capital to the United States, so other countries have to raise interest rates, and borrowing becomes more expensive. At the same time, escalation in the Middle East could support oil prices and increase global inflationary pressures. As a result, global growth may slow down, and market volatility may increase, said Yaroslav Kabakov from Finam.
According to the IMF, every 10% increase in oil prices adds about 0.4 percentage points to global inflation and reduces global GDP by 0.2 percentage points, Denis Astafyev recalled. During the first week of the conflict, Brent crude oil rose from $70 to $120 per barrel, then adjusted to about $90. This growth is particularly sensitive for major energy importers such as Europe, Japan, China and South Korea.
The situation looks different for the Russian Federation, the expert continued. According to Reuters, Russian oil started selling at a premium of $4-5, and Urals rose to about $70 per barrel. This provides the budget with additional revenues and partially compensates for the recent decline in raw materials revenues.
At the same time, the sanctions restrictions have to some extent isolated the Russian financial system from external shocks, reducing the risk of "financial contagion," added Tatiana Belyanchikova from the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanov.
If the conflict lasts for more than two months and oil stays above $ 90 per barrel, inflation in the United States may rise by 0.3–0.6 percentage points, said Yuri Ichkitidze. In a pessimistic scenario, with a price of about $120, inflation could rise to 1-1.2 percentage points within six months, and GDP growth would slow to 0.9–1.2% per year. For Russia, more expensive oil, on the contrary, means an increase in export earnings.
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