Cancellation syndrome: Russian tanker fleet may be withdrawn from sanctions
Tankers carrying Russian oil may be removed from sanctions. This opinion is shared by industry experts, commenting on information that the United States is considering the possibility of lifting some of its restrictions on Russia. This will lead to an increase in export revenue: each additional dollar in the oil sales price brings the industry about $1.4 billion, the Izvestia interlocutors estimated. About two thirds of this amount goes to the budget in the form of taxes. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, energy companies should use the current rise in oil and gas prices to improve their financial situation. What restrictions can be lifted from the Russian oil industry and what impact this will have on the country's economy can be found in the Izvestia article.
There is talk of lifting sanctions in the West
US President Donald Trump has announced that Washington will lift some of the restrictive measures against the oil industry in other countries.
"We are suspending some oil-related sanctions in order to lower prices. We have sanctions against some countries, and we will lift them until the situation recovers. And who knows, maybe we won't have to return them if peace is established," the American leader said. However, he did not specify which States he was referring to.
Prior to this statement, Reuters, citing its sources, reported that the United States was considering easing sanctions on Russian oil in order to curb rising energy prices amid a military operation against Iran. According to them, the purpose of easing restrictions is to increase global reserves against the background of a massive disruption in energy supplies from the Middle East.
Reuters clarified that the United States is considering the possibility of both broad easing of sanctions and targeted measures that will allow individual countries, such as India, to buy Russian oil without the risk of American punitive measures, including tariffs. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers noted that Trump and his "energy team" had a plan to maintain stability in the energy markets "long before the start of the operation" against Iran, the agency added.
On March 9, the leaders of Russia and the United States had a telephone conversation. Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov stressed that the conversation focused on the situation around Iran, negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, as well as the situation on the oil and gas markets, but did not provide details.
Currently, US sanctions include restrictions on imports of Russian oil and petroleum products, as well as bans on investment and technological cooperation in the Russian oil and gas sector.
In addition, at the end of 2022, the G7 countries (Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Canada, France, Japan and the USA) approved a ceiling on prices for Russian raw materials in the amount of $ 60 per barrel. This means that companies from the jurisdictions of the G7 countries will be able to provide services for trading Russian oil only if the price in the contract is lower. In September 2025, the ceiling was lowered to $47.6 per barrel, and from February 1, 2026, to $44.1.
Since February 7, the US administration has also lifted additional duties of 25% on Indian imports, explaining this by New Delhi's refusal to purchase oil from the Russian Federation. As noted in the decree, Washington will be ready to take measures against India, including restoring additional import duties on its goods if it continues to purchase oil from the Russian Federation.
As Izvestia wrote, in 2025, on average, Russia exported about 3 million barrels of oil and 4 million barrels of petroleum products per day. At the same time, China and India have been the main buyers of raw materials for a long time.
What sanctions can be lifted?
Against the background of the Middle East crisis, the United States has de facto begun a gradual erosion of the sanctions regime against Russian oil - so far through targeted tools that do not require political recognition of the reversal, Alisa Kazelko, a member of the Russian Export Control Association, an expert at Valdai, recalled.
— The first signal was a 30-day carve-out for India, which allows us to purchase our raw materials from tankers at sea. The US Treasury accompanied this decision with a direct statement of its readiness to "lift sanctions on other Russian oil volumes" — such rhetoric from Washington was unthinkable a year ago. At the same time, Congress indefinitely extended the license for Rosneft, and the German subsidiary of the company received a permanent exemption from restrictions. As we can see, sanctions are being lifted pointwise," the expert noted.
According to Yuri Stankevich, deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, statements about a possible easing of restrictions on Russian oil if they are limited to supplies to India indicate Washington's pragmatic approach, rather than a review of the entire sanctions policy.
— The United States initially set up restrictions in such a way as to minimize the global energy shock. Therefore, potential easing measures aimed at stabilizing global oil prices, especially in the face of inflationary pressures, look more like a tool for market regulation than a political concession to Moscow," he said.
If we talk about other possible areas of mitigation, then, according to Yuri Stankevich, theoretically we can talk about separate licenses for financial transactions related to energy, easing in the field of insurance and logistics of oil supplies, adjusting the ceiling of prices for Russian raw materials and point exceptions for major importing countries such as India or Turkey..
According to Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, about 1.8 thousand tankers out of about 8.8 thousand operated in the world are currently under US restrictions. They are either "by name" included in the sanctions lists, or belong to companies under sanctions. This circumstance makes it extremely difficult for global oil logistics, which is already suffering due to the situation around Iran.
Another measure, he said, could be an increase or complete abolition of the price ceiling, which would again lift restrictions on sea transportation of oil and petroleum products.
— In this case, companies from any country, including Western countries, could transport "black gold" from Russia. Given the increased freight rates in general, there would be plenty of people willing, the expert believes.
Meanwhile, on March 10, the European Commission called on the United States to strictly comply with the G7 restrictions on Russian oil prices.
"It is very important to strictly observe the price limit set by the G7 countries and, possibly, to proceed to a complete ban on maritime transportation in order to limit Russian military revenues, since the opposite would be counterproductive,— European Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said at a press conference.
Despite this, the United States will have arguments for its European partners, especially since there are currently enough Europeans willing to buy Russian oil, says Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult.
According to Yuri Stankevich, it is important to take into account the domestic political factor in the United States: any noticeable easing of sanctions will be the subject of fierce discussion in Congress.
In addition, the position of the European allies also plays a role — Washington needs to maintain coordination of sanctions policy within the framework of the transatlantic bloc. Thus, it is most likely not about dismantling this regime, but about its point adjustment depending on the situation on the global energy market and current negotiation processes, he believes.
What awaits the Russian economy and budget
According to experts, from the point of view of supply volumes, it is unlikely to be possible to significantly increase exports in a short period of time — this requires time and additional investments.
The growth potential of Russian oil exports in March compared to February may be estimated at 0.5 million barrels per day or more, said Tamara Safonova, Director General of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector.
Valery Andrianov recalled that due to logistical problems, shipments in Russian ports decreased by about 10-11% in January, which is about 300-350 thousand barrels per day. In his opinion, "solving logistics problems will bring these volumes back."
Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, considered that in the current conditions Russia would rather increase production, but this would happen even without violating the OPEC+ quota.
— By the New Year, we had under-selected a quota of about 300-400 thousand barrels per day. But again, it's not much. About 20-22 million barrels per day of production are stuck inside the Persian Gulf. And if Russia increases it by 300-400 thousand barrels per day, it won't make much difference. This is important for us to earn more now against the background of high prices, but not for the global market," the expert said.
According to Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager of Alfa Capital Management Company, the price factor can play a significant role.
— In annual terms, an additional $1 to the oil sales price provides the industry with approximately $1.4 billion in additional revenue. About two thirds of this amount goes to the budget in the form of taxes," he said.
On March 9, commodity prices hit the $120 per barrel mark. And industry experts, as Izvestia wrote, predict a price increase of up to $150 per barrel.
Energy companies should use the current increase in oil and gas prices to improve their financial situation, President Vladimir Putin has said. He specified that additional export revenue should be used to reduce the debt burden of companies to Russian banks. The Head of State also instructed the Cabinet of Ministers and the Central Bank to take this process under control.
Overdue debts of companies engaged in the extraction of fuel and energy minerals have increased sharply over the year. They jumped by 63% and reached 46.6 billion rubles at the beginning of 2026, according to data from the Central Bank, which was analyzed by Izvestia. At the same time, the total volume of loans from such organizations to banks even decreased slightly to 1.34 trillion. This means that the quality of their loan portfolio has deteriorated.
With high interest rates, it is becoming increasingly difficult for businesses to service expensive loans. More than 65% of corporate debts are issued at a floating rate, so the tight monetary policy of the Central Bank has significantly increased the cost of companies to pay interest. For six months, the regulator kept the key rate at a record level of 21% and only in June began to gradually reduce it. Now it still remains high - 15.5%.
In 2025, oil and gas revenues accounted for about 23% of all federal treasury revenues. At the same time, they have fallen by a quarter compared to 2024. Therefore, if the mining companies stopped servicing loans, budget losses could be significantly higher.
Amid rising oil prices, the authorities are also discussing changing the budget rule, a mechanism that restricts the use of oil and gas revenues. It works like this: the basic cost of raw materials is included in the budget, the so-called "cut-off price". Revenues from the sale of raw materials within its limits are allocated to current expenses, and excess profits are allocated to reserves, primarily to the National Welfare Fund (NWF). If the price of oil falls and there is not enough revenue, funds from the fund are used to cover the treasury deficit.
Currently, the cut-off price is $59 per barrel. Initially, it was supposed to gradually reduce it by $1 per year to $55 by 2030. However, at the end of February, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the authorities could speed up this process.
The revision of the budget rule will make it possible to more actively replenish the National Welfare Fund, which amounted to about 13.6 trillion rubles in February, and also contain the budget deficit, which amounted to 1.7 trillion rubles in January, said Alisa Kazelko, a member of the Export Control Association of the Russian Federation and an expert at Valdai.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, even if Donald Trump's statements turn out to be only a verbal intervention to calm the market, Russia will benefit from rising energy prices anyway.
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