How the situation in the Middle East affects the situation in the Asia-Pacific region. Analysis
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- How the situation in the Middle East affects the situation in the Asia-Pacific region. Analysis
The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran will have consequences not only for the Middle East, but also for the Asia-Pacific region (APR). While the US military is busy with the current military campaign, tensions are growing between China and Taiwan, which could lead to a full-fledged confrontation involving neighboring countries. How strikes on Iran provoke escalation in East Asia — in the Izvestia article.
The escalation around Taiwan
• The conflict in the Middle East has attracted attention from other potentially tense regions that are usually the focus of international politics. At the same time, they not only did not become calmer, but also had a tendency to worsen the situation. First of all, we are talking about the Asia-Pacific region, where the confrontation between the United States and China continues around Taiwan and the Korean peninsula. The ongoing attacks on Iran have not only dealt an economic blow to East Asian countries that have been cut off from oil supplies from the Persian Gulf, but have also affected the balance of power in the region.
• One of the arguments in favor of the fact that the United States would not launch strikes against Iran was that in this way they would empty their arsenals and would not be able to provide the necessary level of protection in the event of a potential conflict over Taiwan. However, in the end, the decision on bombing was made, and now the question arises again whether Washington will be able to ensure the island's defense as reliably as it had previously declared.
Taiwan is of great importance to the United States. It produces about 90% of advanced computer chips and thus lays the foundation for the economic security of the West. In order to preserve the current situation, the United States announced the sale of weapons worth about $11 billion to the island, which provoked protest from China, which threatened to cancel the visit of US President Donald Trump to Beijing. Although the media reported that the decision on the sale had been postponed, Taiwan's Ministry of Defense nevertheless confirmed that the agreement remains in force. However, in the current circumstances, as the conflict over Iran drags on and the prospects for its end are dim, it will be increasingly difficult for the United States to secure the necessary supplies, as they need to meet their needs first.
China's possible response
• China already has the right to consider itself an injured party due to the conflict between the United States and Iran. As the world's largest consumer of crude oil, it has been cut off from supplies from the Persian Gulf. Beijing has stopped receiving not only cheap Iranian oil, which is under US sanctions, but also hydrocarbons from other countries, which Iran has blocked passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
• What happened cannot be called an accident. This is part of the US strategic plan to cut off China from oil supplies and undermine its economic potential. Earlier, for the same reasons, the White House conducted an operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Its main result was not a change of the ruling regime in the country, but increased pressure to prevent oil supplies to China.
• The loss of another oil supplier, and one that is much lighter and of higher quality than Venezuelan oil, may push China to take more decisive action against the United States. Beijing usually follows a cautious strategy and "plays by the rules", trying to avoid the image of the aggressor in the eyes of the international community. However, the fact that Washington is simultaneously implementing a plan for an oil blockade and undermining Taiwan's defense potential is becoming an excuse for China to respond.
• Beijing does not deny its readiness to gain control over Taiwan by military means and demonstrates its potential in every possible way by conducting military exercises near the island. Recently, Japan has been trying to stop the military scenario in the person of new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who announced her readiness to defend Taiwan. The subsequent economic pressure from China had an impact on Tokyo, so Takaichi moved away from direct confrontation with China. At the same time, neither she nor other senior officials expressed support for the United States in the conflict with Iran, and in Beijing this will be interpreted as Tokyo's retreat from its previous hawkish positions.
• In addition to military options, China still has other options to confront the United States. Now the doors are open for him to strengthen his influence in the Middle East, which has suffered from a sudden escalation of the crisis. Beijing has the right to position itself as a calmer and more confident ally, with whom agreements will last longer than the current administration remains in power. In 2023, China has already played a huge role in restoring diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and this can become the foundation for a new reconciliation between the parties, which will be rewarded by the mediator.
Additional risks for the Asia-Pacific region
• The operation in Iran has also highlighted the United States' disregard for the interests of its allies. They were faced with the fact that in the near future they would have to face a number of negative consequences for themselves, which they would like to avoid if their opinion were taken into account when planning strikes. Allies who advocate milder forms of interaction may at any moment become hostages of unilateral US actions and even be sanctioned for refusing to join, as was the case with Spain, which Trump threatened with a trade embargo. Countries such as South Korea, Japan and the Philippines will have to take into account that their efforts to cooperate with China and the DPRK can be crossed out at any moment if Washington relies on military solutions.
• The conflict with Iran has clearly shown how US allies who do not want to get involved in hostilities still fall victim to retaliatory strikes. And this prospect will now frighten the countries where American military bases are located. If South Korea and Japan wish to take a neutral position in a hypothetical conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan, this will not protect them from attacks on military installations. The fate of the Middle Eastern countries, which suffered much more from Iran than the United States, is now of concern to everyone who interacts with Washington militarily in one way or another.
• The fact that the invasion of Venezuela and the attacks on Iran were preceded by active diplomacy with the participation of the United States further complicates the possible settlement of any processes in the Asia-Pacific region. Countries to which Washington has claims are losing their last hope that disputes with the current administration can be resolved peacefully. The negotiation process on the part of the United States has ceased to be a reliable tool for building relations that inspires trust. Any state that the White House approaches with a proposal to discuss the accumulated problems will now have to treat it with caution and at the same time prepare for a forceful scenario.
• The conflict in the Middle East has a special significance for the DPRK. Unlike Tehran, Pyongyang has managed to implement its nuclear program and create a nuclear deterrent force. The American and Israeli strikes were a clear confirmation to the DPRK leadership that it had not chosen a course to ensure its own security in vain. The impunity with which the United States carried out operations to eliminate the leaders of Venezuela and Iran in relation to the DPRK becomes unattainable as long as it retains the status of a nuclear power. It is no coincidence that the first public appearance of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un since the beginning of the Iranian bombing was an inspection of a new warship and cruise missiles. It was a clear signal that an invasion of the DPRK would have grave consequences for the United States.
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