The economist explained the increase in company closures in Russia

The growing number of companies closing in Russia is associated with the return of some entrepreneurs to hired work and increased economic pressure on small and medium-sized businesses. This opinion was expressed on March 10 to Izvestia by Alexander Shkarupa, brand director and founder of the Dynamics event agency.

According to him, the idea of starting their own business has been actively promoted in the country in recent years, and many employees have decided to try their hand at entrepreneurship. However, some of them were not ready for the high responsibility and operational burden of the business.

"People quit hiring, but they never became real entrepreneurs. Now they are coming back, realizing that the risks and operational burden of their own business are not comparable with a good fixed salary," the expert noted.

Shkarupa stressed that what is happening can be considered a market rotation. By the end of 2025, the number of closed legal entities was 26% higher than the number of new registrations. The most noticeable reduction affected the sphere of trade and intermediary services, where initially there were many companies without a stable business model.

Additional pressure on the business is exerted by economic and regulatory factors. In particular, since the beginning of 2026, the VAT rate has increased from 20% to 22%, and the threshold for applying the simplified taxation system has decreased from 60 to 20 million rubles. According to the expert, such changes particularly affect medium-sized companies that have already left the microformat, but have not yet become major players.

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In addition, the growth in turnover of small and medium-sized businesses has slowed down. If in 2023 it was about 23%, then in 2025 it was only 8%, which is lower than the inflation rate. The high cost of borrowed funds also complicates the development of companies. According to Shkarupa, loans at 25-30% per annum actually make most business models unprofitable.

The expert believes that business support should be more practical and systematic. We can talk about preferential credit lines, installments for tax payments and faster payments under government contracts.

"Six months or a year of waiting for payment after fulfilling a government contract kills the cash flow faster than any tax. A reasonable settlement period could be three months," he stressed.

At the same time, Shkarupa noted that in the long term, the situation could stabilize if the rules of doing business were more predictable. In his opinion, special support should be given to companies implementing automation and artificial intelligence, as well as businesses that invest in training personnel in conjunction with universities and colleges.

According to the expert, such initiatives directly increase labor productivity and contribute to the development of the economy, and tax incentives for such companies may be more effective than targeted subsidies.

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On this day, Vedomosti reported that 31% of entrepreneurs are thinking about closing or selling a business, according to the results of a joint study by Thomas and the Higher School of Economics "Small Business Research Institute". In the first quarter of 2026, this indicator immediately increased by 8 percentage points (pp) compared to the same period in 2025, when businesses also faced tax increases, but not on such a large scale.

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