Access level: Slovakia demands to keep the supply of resources from the Russian Federation after 2027

Bratislava, like Budapest, insists on lifting the embargo on the import of Russian energy resources, which is due to come into effect in 2027. This was stated to Izvestia by the head of the Slovak Parliament's International affairs committee, Marian Carey. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the cost of energy resources in the EU has increased significantly, and the situation is particularly difficult in Hungary and Slovakia. Experts consider concessions from Brussels unlikely, although Kiev's outright threats alarm the European Commission. Meanwhile, the Slovak authorities are preparing to strengthen security measures on the border with Ukraine, Hungary had previously strengthened its strategic facilities.

Will the EU abandon the ban on energy resources from the Russian Federation

The confrontation between the United States and Israel with Iran has hit the European economy. Natural gas prices have jumped by almost 90%, and oil prices by 40%, the European Commission said. The Hungarian government has proposed to the EU leadership to immediately lift the ban on the use of Russian oil and gas in all countries of the community. Brussels recently approved a decision to stop importing Russian energy resources by the end of 2027.

Slovakia will also insist on continuing to supply Russian oil and gas after 2027, Marian Carey, head of the international affairs committee of the country's National Council (parliament) and a member of the ruling Smer party, told Izvestia.

— Due to the problems in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil will rise. Even without what is happening in Iran, we want supplies from Russia, as far as gas and oil are concerned, because it is beneficial for us. We received money for this transit. And now we have to pay other states for the oil to come to us. We are in a very difficult situation today," Carey told Izvestia.

Kiev stopped pumping oil to Slovakia and Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline on January 27. On February 18, the Slovak government declared an oil crisis in the republic and, in response, stopped supplying emergency electricity and diesel fuel to Ukraine. Hungary joined these measures, and also blocked the 20th package of sanctions against Russia and the European loan to Kiev for € 90 billion.

Ursula von der Leyen and Robert Fico discussed the issue of Druzhba supplies in Paris. The Slovak Prime Minister said after the talks that they shared the view that oil transit through Ukraine should be restored. According to him, the European Commission is ready to provide not only technical assistance, but also financing for possible repairs.

It is important to understand that stopping Russian energy supplies to Europe is Ukraine's deliberate strategy. On January 1, 2025, it stopped pumping Russian gas through its territory, despite the objections of Bratislava and Budapest. Moreover, German investigators have established that part of the crew of the yacht used to attack the Nord Stream gas pipeline had "clear links" with the Ukrainian special services or the military.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also recently stated that Kiev, with the support of Western intelligence services, was preparing to undermine the Blue Stream and the Turkish Stream. It should be noted that the second gas pipeline remains the only route for delivering Russian gas to Europe, Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia are critically dependent on it.

The most ardent supporters of abandoning Russian energy resources include the Baltic States, Poland, Scandinavia and Germany. It was Berlin that last year persuaded Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to lift his veto on the 18th and 19th packages of sanctions against Russia. Germany continues to support plans to abandon Russian energy sources, the German Ministry of Economy and Energy told Izvestia.

— The Nord Stream branches are subject to European sanctions under the 18th package, which Germany openly supports. Germany has achieved an end to dependence on Russian gas through comprehensive measures. We remain committed to this. Gas supplies to Germany are now significantly diversified, and supplies are stable," the German ministry said.

Not to the service, but to Druzhba: Hungary and Slovakia wanted Russian oil supplies through Croatia

Zagreb makes it clear that this is possible only within the framework of EU and US rules.

The current energy crisis is the most severe for the Slovak fuel and energy system in modern history. The strategic reserves will only last for the next three months, so the situation will steadily worsen. Kiev is seeking to influence the domestic political situation in Slovakia, where the situation is already quite tense.

— The crisis will lead to higher prices for fuel and other goods, which may lead to early elections and, possibly, the coming to power of opposition politicians, who now have a high level of support among the population. Kiev's logic is aimed at replacing politicians in the region who are inconvenient for them," Mikhail Vedernikov, a leading researcher at the Central and Eastern European Studies Department at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Izvestia.

At the same time, Brussels will make exceptions to the ban on Russian energy imports only in the event of internal political changes in Slovakia and Hungary. If the current policies remain in these countries, the EU will "twist their arms" as stubbornly as possible in order to weaken their positions, the expert is sure. According to his estimates, the minimum program for Brussels is to "pressure" the current leadership of Slovakia and Hungary to approve a €90 billion tranche to Ukraine.

Hungary and Slovakia's conflict with Ukraine

The confrontation between Bratislava and Budapest and Kiev has gone beyond the usual interstate dispute. Vladimir Zelensky has moved on to open threats, which have caused rejection even among the Hungarian opposition and the European Commission. He said he would transfer Viktor Orban's contacts to the Ukrainian military, who should "communicate with him in their own language."

The Hungarian Government has strengthened the protection of critical infrastructure. In addition, the authorities detained a group of employees of the Ukrainian Oschadbank, who were transporting $40 million, €35 million and 9 kg of gold. Ukrainians, including a former intelligence general, are suspected of money laundering and attempting to interfere in Hungary's internal affairs.

Slovakia also plans to strengthen the protection of the border with Ukraine, Marian Carey told Izvestia.

— We need to look more at the protection of the Slovak-Ukrainian border, because it is both the border of the European Union with Ukraine, as well as the Schengen border with Ukraine. We need to be more careful," the politician said.

The detention of "cash collectors" or increased protection of energy facilities still fit into the logic of a manageable crisis. However, the Hungarian government is not interested in a serious escalation of tension on the border with Ukraine, as the elections are approaching and the situation needs to be kept under control even in the face of harsh rhetoric, Egor Sergeev, senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia.

— Given that the Kiev regime does not shy away from using illegal methods, the organization of some kind of provocations (for example, in the form of drone strikes) should not be ruled out. However, it is unlikely that any significant escalation is in the interests of all the players," the political scientist believes.

The conflict with Ukraine has already become one of the central themes of the election campaign in Hungary. Local voters are due to elect a new parliament on April 12. The ruling political force Fidesz, according to some polls, is inferior to the opposition Tisa party led by Peter Magyar.

Relationship time: Hungary wants to recreate a friendship group with Russia

The Slovak parliament is also expressing interest in a parliamentary dialogue.

Vladimir Zelensky's statements are inclining wavering voters towards Viktor Orban and even tougher eurosceptics from the Nasha Rodina party, according to Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at the Financial University.

— There is no guarantee that Orban will retain power. The European Union openly hopes that its rule will end soon. Therefore, only Magyar can make concessions to the EU," the expert noted.

This also applies to Slovakia, whose government Brussels is also openly unhappy with and dreams of replacing. The Czech Republic's support could change the situation, since the country has great weight in the EU, and its new prime Minister Andrei Babis is not disliked in Brussels as much as Fico and Orban, Trukhachev believes.

The Czech government had previously refused to participate in granting a loan to Ukraine, and also announced a reduction in financial assistance to Kiev. By the way, on March 10, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met with the head of the Czech government. So Berlin is trying to prevent the formation of a coalition of Bratislava, Budapest and Prague, which may prevent Brussels from continuing military supplies to Ukraine.

Washington can also play a role. The Trump administration has repeatedly shown that it sympathizes with Budapest and Bratislava more than with the EU leadership. Just in February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Hungary and Slovakia, refusing to meet with European leaders. If Viktor Orban wins the parliamentary elections, Donald Trump may support his actions to block new European loans to Ukraine. This will give the American leader leverage over Kiev, which now receives most of its aid from Europe.