Full drawdown: the EU and the Gulf states will lose the most from the conflict
Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that Europe and the Persian Gulf states face the greatest damage from the conflict over Iran. EU countries are losing about $180-200 million per day due to rising prices for raw materials. At the same time, due to the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq receives about $310 million less per day, while Kuwait receives about $177 million. China is also capable of losing a large sum, but due to its large reserves, it may not buy oil for almost a year. At the same time, the United States will benefit — they can use the crisis to stimulate their energy sector. How the situation in the Middle East will affect Russia is in the Izvestia article.
How much will the Persian Gulf exporters lose due to the conflict
Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil producing countries (Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia) cannot ship raw materials, and energy buyers cannot receive them, said Olga Gogaladze, an expert on financial markets. In addition, the rise in the price of raw materials should lead to a deterioration in the trade balances of the countries most dependent on imports — China, India, the EU (especially the core of the eurozone — France, Germany, Italy), says Kirill Kononov, analyst at BCS World Investments.
On February 28, Israel and the United States launched strikes against Iran. In response, the Islamic Republic attacked both the territory of the Jewish state and American military installations in the Middle East — in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq. The Iranian authorities also called the assets of American companies in the region legitimate targets.
On March 5, Donald Trump announced that the United States could conduct military operations in Iran for at least another 100 days. It is likely that the conflict will not end quickly — the assassination of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, indicates that the situation is unlikely to stabilize in the near future. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has already promised not to leave the incident unanswered.
One of the most important consequences of the conflict for the global economy was the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is used for the movement of oil tankers. About 20% of the world's liquid hydrocarbon supplies and about 10% of gas, including 22% of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG), pass through the artery. Because of this, global markets began to fever down — Brent crude oil gained more than 20% over the week to $93 per barrel.
According to Izvestia, Iraq is losing about $310 million per day (with an average export of 3.33 million barrels per day and a Brent price of $93.04) due to a drop in shipments from a blocked artery and fighting in the Middle East. Kuwait loses about $177 million (exports of about 1.9 million barrels), Oman — about $ 79 million (supplies of about 0.8 million barrels). At the same time, Bahrain is losing about $13 million (the average export is 137.7 thousand barrels). Qatar, one of the largest LNG suppliers, will receive about 180 million euros per day ($209 million/day).
When calculating, the "revenue at risk" of exporters was used — that is, how much cash flow per day cannot be realized if the volume of supplies does not reach the market.
The United Arab Emirates is in a better position in this situation — some of its oil can be exported bypassing the Strait of Hormuz via a pipeline to the port of Fujairah. Therefore, not all exports are at risk, but only that part of them that cannot be redirected. Therefore, about 2 million barrels — about $163 million - remain potentially vulnerable every day. However, it is important to remember that due to the military actions, trade and tourism - the foundations of the UAE economy — have been put on pause, Olga Gogaladze added.
How much will the EU, China and India lose due to the conflict
At the same time, there is a drawdown among key importers, mainly due to rising prices for raw materials. For example, the eurozone countries lose at least $180-200 million per day in oil alone due to overpayments, Izvestia estimates. For example, Germany will have to allocate about $34.7 million per day for additional expenses, Italy — $23.2 million, and France - $18.5 million. In addition, Germany will also have to spend an additional $57 million per day on gas, Italy — about 44 million, and France — about $25 million.
Already, the price of gas in the EU has exceeded $700 for the first time since 2023, and if hostilities continue for at least a few weeks, this will collapse the already barely breathing economy for unification, added Ekaterina Novikova, Associate professor of the Department of Economic Theory at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Each increase in oil prices by $10 adds 0.5 percentage points to inflation in the eurozone and reduces GDP growth by 0.15 percentage points, Olga Gogaladze explained.
China would also have to overpay about $227 million per day, and India — $98.6 million. However, according to Yuri Ichkitidze, analyst at Freedom Finance Global, Beijing has huge oil reserves on which it can hold on for at least a year without buying raw materials at all. China also has its own production of raw materials, so there will only be a price hit for the energy-intensive industry, he added. China is currently trying to boost its economy through domestic demand and government subsidies, Olga Gogaladze noted.
India imports about 90% of all the oil it needs from abroad, and any price spike hurts its budget and accelerates inflation, the expert noted. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the country's GDP growth may drop by 0.5 percentage points at once. The republic's reserves are also high. However, the country fears that the conflict will last a long time, so supplies may not be enough. Due to the military actions, New Delhi has already lost access to half of its oil supplies and has asked Washington to suspend sanctions on trade with Russia. In response, the United States issued a 30-day license to purchase Russian oil.
What will the conflict with Iran mean for the United States
For the United States, the situation is twofold. On the one hand, rising oil prices will hit consumers' pockets, said Denis Astafyev, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. Due to the increase in the cost of gasoline, inflation will jump by 0.2–0.3 percentage points, but the American economy will survive this, added Yuri Ichkitidze, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
But, on the other hand, the United States can use this crisis to stimulate its own energy sector and put pressure on China, blocking its access to Iranian oil, Denis Astafyev noted. Beijing has already demanded that Tehran not block the Strait of Hormuz. American oil producers will receive windfall profits that will stimulate the country's economy, said Yuri Ichkitidze.
However, the main problem of the United States now is the gigantic national debt, which is already over $38 trillion (that is, about 120% of GDP). In the first days of the military campaign alone, commitments increased by another $100 billion, Olga Gogaladze recalled. America's GDP growth forecast for 2026 is about 2.2–2.4%, but the escalation of the conflict may adjust these figures downwards, the expert added.
Will Russia benefit from the situation in the Middle East
Russia can increase budget revenues by increasing prices for natural resources. India has already requested more oil for itself, China is next, says Ekaterina Novikova, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Theory at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. As of March 6, the Urals brand was trading at $75.84 per barrel.
More expensive raw materials could bring additional revenue to the treasury. If the average price of Urals exceeds $60-62 in 2026, the budget will be able to receive at least 1-1.5 trillion rubles in additional oil and gas revenues, Izvestia previously wrote. However, this will only increase the revenue side by about 7-8% and reduce the deficit to 1.5% of GDP. At the same time, while maintaining the average Urals price at about $70, additional revenues may amount to 1.8–2.2 trillion rubles by the end of the year.
However, market quotations do not always reflect the real income from exports. Public data on the Urals price often differ from the actual terms of supply. Due to the sanctions, Russian exporters often provide additional discounts that are not visible to the market. As a result, some shipments may be sold for less than $60 per barrel, so rising stock prices will not necessarily significantly affect the deficit of the financial plan, which is currently estimated at about 1.6% of GDP this year. Thus, Olga Gogaladze continued, global instability and a possible drop in world trade are hitting demand for Russian raw materials.
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