Laissez-faire policy: is the West ready to participate in the war in the Middle East
The geography of the Israeli-Iranian war is rapidly expanding. The day before, the missile entered Turkish airspace — for the first time during the conflict, the threat directly affected a NATO country. At the same time, new states are gradually becoming involved in the conflict, from Canada and the United Kingdom to Azerbaijan. The risk of the emergence of a united coalition of the West against Iran is described in the Izvestia article.
NATO is on the sidelines
The conflict between Iran and the United States is keeping the entire Middle East region in suspense. On Wednesday, March 4, an Iranian ballistic missile entered Turkish airspace and was shot down by an air defense system. The debris fell on the border with Syria — in the province of Hatay. Ankara warned Tehran about the right to respond to any hostile actions.
The incident has once again raised the issue of the security guarantees that NATO provides to its allies under article 5 of the treaty. The alliance's Secretary General, Mark Rutte, initially stated that the bloc deliberately maintains uncertainty about the likelihood of its use because it does not want to give information to opponents. However, he later formulated his position more directly: "NATO will not invoke Article 5 because of the missile incident in Turkey."
Iranian ballistic missile launch
The alliance's refusal to support Ankara is explained by several factors. First of all, Turkey itself did not appeal to article 5 of the treaty. But even if it had happened, it would hardly have had any effect. The fact is that the general political situation that has developed after the actions of Israel and the United States against Iran has already led to serious disagreements within the North Atlantic Alliance.
— A number of states and their leaders oppose this operation. Many consider it illegitimate from the point of view of international law, but the problem lies elsewhere: such actions were a blow to the unity of the alliance, since some of the allies were not informed in advance or were not fully consulted," Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, emphasizes in a conversation with Izvestia.
Patriot anti-aircraft missile system of the Turkish Armed Forces
Many Western countries generally make no secret of their desire for regime change in Iran. However, this does not mean that we are ready to immediately enter into a full-scale war, agrees Kamran Hasanov, Doctor of Political Sciences at the University of Salzburg.
"In order for the alliance to directly intervene in the conflict, a serious provocation is necessary," the expert believes. — It could be a large-scale blow to the territory of a NATO country, for example, the complete destruction of facilities in Cyprus. So far, even attacks on Allied military bases have not become such a trigger.
He recalls that France did not consider even an attack on its own base in the UAE as a reason for an immediate military response.
Expansion of the territory
The situation has affected not only Turkey. On Thursday, March 5, two drones crashed in Nakhichevan, Azerbaijan: one at a local airport, the other near a school. It is difficult to say why Azerbaijan could become a target of Tehran: there are no American military bases in the republic.
Baku blamed Iran for the incident. And they warned that they reserve the right to retaliate in case of a repeat of such incidents.
— The situation is becoming more sensitive against the background of the allied relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan, enshrined in the Shusha Declaration. This means that in case of further escalation, countries may consider the possibility of joint actions to protect their interests," political analyst Ilgar Velizade points out in an interview with Izvestia.
The Nakhichevan airport building in Azerbaijan damaged as a result of a drone attack
So far, according to him, both Baku and Ankara are opposed to being drawn into a broader conflict. However, if such incidents happen again, they will have to respond.
At the same time, Tehran previously attributed some attacks on facilities in the region to Israeli provocations. In particular, Iran categorically denies launching a missile towards Turkey. The Iranian Tasnim news agency also claimed earlier that the attacks on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were carried out by Israel "under a false flag" in order to blame Tehran.
Technically, such operations are possible, says political analyst Denis Denisov. Moreover, in the current conditions, one should not expect a full-fledged international investigation: in the information space, it is often not the establishment of facts that is decisive, but who will be the first to formulate a public version of events.
— There is an additional nuance in the situation with Turkey. Recently, Israeli officials began to talk about the fact that Turkey is also considered by Israel as one of the key opponents in the region, the analyst points out.
Incirlik Air Base in Turkey
However, there is another explanation for what happened. Iran is systematically attacking American military installations, and in this sense Turkey is not much different from other countries: the Incirlik base remains one of the key US and NATO military bases in the Middle East.
"What distinguishes Turkey is that it is able to fight back,— says Kamran Hasanov. — The strike was most likely inflicted by Iran, but Tehran is trying not to focus on this and not to link relations with Turkey with the presence of an American base there.
Shaky unity
There is no unified position on the Iranian issue in the West. Some condemn the fighting. Some countries prefer to remain neutral in order not to aggravate relations with Washington. Others support the United States, but rather at the level of political statements.
Earlier, the leaders of Germany, Britain and France threatened the Islamic Republic with "proportionate defensive actions" if Tehran continued to attack their allies in the Middle East. However, the matter has not yet gone beyond harsh statements.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney also allowed the Canadian military to participate in the operation against Iran, saying that Ottawa has no such plans yet. Spain and Italy have agreed to cooperate with the US military, but this is solely about protecting the British military base in Cyprus.
The main entrance to the territory of the British military base Akrotiri in Cyprus
Denis Denisov believes that the energy crisis remains one of the key constraining factors for Western countries, which largely determines their political agenda.
— Their leaders will have to take into account how the further escalation of the conflict will affect the energy markets and the economic situation. And it is far from certain that many of them will consider the intensification of the conflict beneficial in these conditions. Therefore, theoretically, the formation of a coalition against Tehran is possible, but at the moment there are no real prerequisites for this," the expert explains.
At the same time, Kamran Hasanov notes that Western countries may join active hostilities either in the event of a serious escalation, or when it becomes obvious that the Iranian regime is on the verge of collapse.
Protest against US-Israeli strikes in Tehran
— In such a situation, participation in the operation will allow them to support the outcome of the conflict without incurring major losses. A similar logic has already been observed before. For example, during the conflict in Libya, Italy began to actively support the forces opposed to Muammar Gaddafi only when it became clear that his regime was losing control of the country.
Nevertheless, the Iranian strikes affect not only military infrastructure, but also civilian facilities, as well as violate the airspace of neighboring states. If such incidents continue, Arab countries and their allies will be forced to respond to emerging threats.
First of all, we are talking about the countries of the Persian Gulf, Ilgar Velizade continues. Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have collective security mechanisms within the framework of the Arab Cooperation Council. If necessary, they can use these arrangements and involve external partners.
— Despite calls for the United States and Israel to end the operation as soon as possible, the fighting continues. In these circumstances, diplomatic efforts are still not yielding results, and the states of the region may increasingly resort to military tools to protect their interests," the Izvestia interlocutor summarizes.
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